Monday, June 15, 2009

Loans Versus Bonds Relative Value: Week of June 11

Bear capitulation is here, at least in credit: every single name is tighter week over week in both loans and bonds. If there is ever a more contrarian signal, please let us know what it is. For the first time since the fall, the universe of 30 high yield names trades inside of 1,000 bps. And yet, we are supposed to hit 18% in cumulative HY defaults by the end of 2009 according to S&P and, beginning today, the totally credibility free Moody's. Pure, unadulterated junk bubble.

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