Friday, June 5, 2009

The (Futile) Task Of Projecting Unemployment

Some realistic downside projections: U3: 17-21%; U6: 30-37%.

Best case scenario: U3: 14-17%; U6: 26-31%

And here is what Bernanke, and everyone else who wonders where we are headed, should be looking at:
"If the job market does not turn around by late summer or early fall of 2009, the projections easily exceed the Great Depression. At that point the only way to prevent catastrophic economic conditions would be through massive inflation of the US dollar achieved by either congress allowing the Federal Reserve to issue its own debt, or by accelerating the rate at which the Federal Reserve monetizes US debt while funneling the newly printed dollars into wages so that the money can circulate within the economy."
Yes, wage inflation is wonderful, however recent data indicate that just the opposite is happening, and the only people who have seen their base pay increase are, ironically, Wall Street bankers, however, at the expense of losing their bonuses. Which is why bank excess reserves are likely to continue skyrocketing as literally boxes full of cash continue gathering dust, while a deleveraging consumer spends his money on guns and ammo.

And here, for some more data on why the unemployment number, is for the most part, rubbish.

Hat tip Distressed Lookout Sphere: Related Content
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