Saturday, April 4, 2009

Currency week in review: 03/29 - 04/03

This past week was very interesting as FX took a cue from the US equities rally and the markets started looking for yield again, further exacerbated as people are starting to question Japan's fundamentals. As we have commented extensively on the weakness of the yen (here and here), we won't rehash but in short, there are not many signs of life coming out of Tokyo. Additionally, the market piled into the investment currencies that ZH has been bullish on; great news right?

Unfortunately, with earnings coming up for Q1 the prospects are looking grim for this trend to last. The unwind in FX is not likely to be as dramatic as what we may see in equities but definitely something to keep an eye out for. Additionally, with a RBA interest rate decision and a FOMC minutes release due this week, there's going to be some volatility in the big movers from last week. The Aussie rate cut will be interesting to watch as we don't think it's going to be as deep as a 0.5% cut, which is what the market is pricing, in but the market is unlikely to move much even if the number doesn't hit consensus.

Charts for AUD/JPY, USD/JPY and CAD/JPY for the past week:

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Anonymous said...



Thanks for the comments. Great call on USD/JPY when you said look for it to hit 100.