First, it was the GM Term Loan B which benefited from hedge fund exuberance, taxpayer generosity, and the administration's soon to be nationalization, and hit 95 earlier today after trading in the 80s on Friday, and much cheaper over the past month, as the consensus has emerged that the administration will pay off the loan at par (a bit of a change from the fulcrum security treatment at Chrysler).
Now it is Ford's turn, whose TLB traded at 71.5 today, from a 65 bid yesterday. Not surprisingly, a major cheerleader emerged in the face of Merrill which had this to say about Ford's TL: "We believe Ford is well positioned to benefit from the struggles at GM and Chrysler, likely picking up market share and realizing similar UAW concessions to those negotiated in Chapter 11."
Once Ford emerges as a stalking horse bidder for Good GM (or as a buyer of the government's equity stake for $0.99), it will pick up even more market share, and will result with about 40 car lines, of which roughly 38 will be as redundant as they have been over the past 5 years.
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