
(Cushing, OK storage tanks)
"ON A LONG ENOUGH TIMELINE, THE SURVIVAL RATE FOR EVERYONE DROPS TO ZERO"

It has been 4 days since we demonstrated Zimbabwe's recently issued $50 billion note... Press reports indicate that deflationary attempts in this Southern African country have failed and Zimbabwe has decided to introduce a $100 Trillion note. We have no clue how the 14 zeros manage to fit on a small piece of paper (this is British numerology). The new note is worth roughly US $33 today and a few cents tomorrow. In the meantime U.S. printing presses work overtime to catch up.
The WSJ reports ($$$ link) that Mexican billionaire (or is that millionaire now, we need to double check) Carlos Slim Helu may bail out the New York Times. The Mexican who bought 6.4% of the company 4 months ago, at ridiculously higher prices, may be the last chance for the newspaper publisher, which is doing everything it can to raise a few bucks, including a sale leaseback of its HQ building and is considering "various other financing alternatives including private placements".
"Bankrupt but not really" carmaker, General Motors, which has already likely burned thru the $13.4 billion in taxpayer money it received a couple of weeks ago, is poised to keep the fire going a whole lot longer. Both holders of over $27 billion of corporate debt, as well as the United Autoworkers Union, are aggressively taking advantage of the government's insistence that the company is too big to fail, and have decided that they are not going to negotiate the concessions needed of them. Ray Young, GM's CFO, has said the company "may not be able to secure the agreement of all bondholders for the proposed debt for equity swap." As part of the original TARP release of critical funds, the company is supposed to force bondholders to accept a 66% reduction in existing debt, which means for every dollar invested, bondholders can hope to recoup at most 33 cents. Same thing goes for the UAW, which is expected to agree to receive less than the current $70/hour all in benefits.
While this is not quite as dramatic as Schrenker's insane plane-crash stunt, or at least not yet, the new Ponzi runaway story is all over the news. This time it is Art Nadel, a potentially demented, statistical arbitrage whiz-kid. While at first glance this seems to be an isolated case of a 75 year old guy who had likely misplaced his dentures, but who nonetheless had been running a "prize winning black box" fund, we fully expect to find a connection to Madoff, Madoff's extended family, Dreier, Schrenker and all the brothers and sisters of Kappa Beta Phi.The photo below is of a store front of Scoop Management Inc. from Google Street View. No green Subaru can be spotted. As more news unwind in this developing story, we will keep you posted.

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Bloomberg reports that Charter Communications, which as we noted, did not pay its Jan. 15 interest payment and has hired Rick Cieri and his mega-bankruptcy law firm Kirkland and Ellis... What boggles is why the company has hired Lazard as financial advisor after their deplorable failure to procure a DIP loan for Nortel, leading to its Chapter 11 filing. The 3rd largest cable company in the U.S. , which serves some 5.5 million soon to be TV-less customers in 27 states, will imminently provide a variety of "diligence" trips for Lazard to its St. Louis headquarters, although according to this the A-list bankers will undoubtedly prefer to be staffed on the Nortel deal. And, as we expected, Charter will file with a boatload of cash, a little over $900 million to mitigate for the lack of interim bankruptcy funding.
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We are happy to inform you that Chrysler Financial (aka Stephen Schwarzman of Apt. 15/16B at 740 Park) is now the proud recipient of your money.
Pfizer cutting 2,400 jobs or a third of its total workforce, AMD is slashing another 1,100 people, and GE Capital is laying off 11,000 or 10% of its workforce. Presumably the newly laid off can be placated with a year-long supply of Viagra, free computer with internet connectivity and free access to a $1 million DIP to finance their own bankruptcy petitions... We can imagine the resulting mess...
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Hertz is firing a lot of very bored, airport rental lot operators. The heavily leveraged auto rental company (CDS in the 1250's last time we cared), is hoping firing a third of its workforce (as compared to August 2006) will make it profitable. Nonetheless, Mark Frissora, CEO, is not unduly optimistic: "Volume, pricing and residual values continued to decline during the most recently completed quarter, and we cannot predict when our markets will improve." He adds total liquidity at Dec. 31, 2008 was $4.9 billion, so Hertz will likely not be on our Death Watch any time soon (although we have been surprised in the past).
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Circuit City will not pass go on its way to the garbage heap. Despite rumors that it had found outright buyers for its stores, including such PE companies as Golden Gate Capital and Ricardo Salinas Pliego, Circuit City today filed a notice in bankruptcy court that it has hired liquidators and is unable to reach a pact with creditors. In a trend proudly started by Apollo portfolio company Linens 'N Things, retailers seem to have given up on reorganizing in chapter 11 and go outright to 7. This fits with our assumption that Chapter 7 is the new 11. Circuit City's bankruptcy case is 08-35653 in Eastern Virginia Bankruptcy Court.
Mortimer Zuckerman and Michael Steinhard are quoted as saying this whole Madoff ponzi shizzle "shouldn't be considered a Jewish scandal just because there were a large number of Jewish victims". Per a Bloomberg article, the two made comments at a Manhattan panel discussion last night called "Madoff: A Jewish Recoking". Among the 250 participants was everyone's favorite Pershing Square Capital manager and monoline fraud exposer, William Ackman. To quote Zuckerman "It's unfair that Madoff's Jewishness has become part of this narrative. Late Enron CEO wasn't called a 'prominent Protestant energy fraudster', and Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevic hasn't been identified in news coverage by his ethnic origins". Steinhardt said he feared Madoff could revive anti-semitism in the U.S.; Steinhardt should know - after all he founded his hedge fund in the distant 1967, when probably the only other HF around was Bernard L Madoff Investment Securities.
Good to see we are on to something. In our breaking expose from Wednesday we presumed that there is more than meets the eye with Frank DiPascali and Charlie Wiener, the other, heretofore secretive Lipstick building 17th floorites. Today Bloomberg reporters seem to agree and have expanded on our initial discoveries... We are quite impressed by the quality of their diligence but I assume you have ways and means when you are actually getting paid for your sleuthing (ahem, management). Not too many major revelations though: their Bridgewater, NJ home is assesed at $1.38 million (btw, Zilllow valuations are roughly 6-12 months old, so take off a zero here and there), Frank likes black Mercedes, dark sunglasses and snowblowers, and like Tim Geithner is not a big fan of paying taxes. Also, due to his Howard Beach origins (of East Coast Watts Riots fame), Bloomberg is tongue-in-cheekly saying the man is obviously linked to the Italian mafia... Curiously another Madoffite emerges, in the face of Robert Cardile, Frank's brother in law, who also was working for Madoff beginning in 1985. 
Looks like the commercial mortgage apocalypse is about to claim its next victim, this time in the form of the appropriately numbered 666 Fifth Avenue building, home to such previously flourishing tenants as Citi Private Wealth Management. Now that private wealth is no more, Citi has decided to take a hike and has so far vacated over 80,000 square feet of space (and since it has over 482,000 sq feet in the building, one can bet it has a ways to go). As a result, the building's DSCR (or ratio of rent generated to interest owed for us non mortgage bankers) has fallen to an abysmal 0.69. Even when taking into account the $98 million (or much less) reserve fund the building has set aside to cover rent shortfalls, one can assume it won't be long before the 666 insignia again prominently graces the roof, especially since it would have to replace a laughable Citi sign.
As previously reported, Steel Partners is trying to stick it to investors by unilaterally deciding to do a reverse merger something or another, ultimately to prevent investors from redeeming in a pseudo-liquid public vehicle called WebFinancial Corporation. Now it seems this plan may be derailed by none other than corporate board bogeyman Carl Icahn (who recently posted an interesting analysis on amending bankruptcy laws that would make our earlier post about the half a thousand Lehman lawyers redundant). The corporate raider, an LP of Steel Partners II himself, has filed a lawsuit against Warren Lichtenstein and his fund in Delaware Chancery Court case # 4284-CC, Bank of America NA et al vs. Steel Partners II Offshore Ltd et al. with Judge William Chandler, claiming Steel is committing fraud by going thru with the reverse merger without obtaining prior approval from, or even notifying, investors.
The Wall Street Journal reports that HeidelbergCement, whose CDS jumped by about 300 bps since when we wrote about the brewing troubles at the German cement maker, may be bailed out by Goldman Sachs and TPG who are allegedly considering buying a stake, while French buyout house PAI is evaluating its own investment.
A Bill introduced today by House Democrats, highlights the $825 billion stimulus plan that is supposed to lead America out of its current deplorable state. This will undoubtedly cause ripples in both the Congress and Senate as the fight for the spoils begins.We didn't care to add this up; we are sure it does not add up to the $550 total. After all it comes from the same people who wanted to repeal an excise tax for kids' arrows in the original TARP.
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Apparently the plane is an Airbus 320 flying from LaGuardia to Charlotte, NC. The plane is semi-submerged in the Hudson River and is "slowly sinking". According to the US Airways website this is flight 1549. Media reports there were 148 passengers and 6 crew members onboard when the plane crash-landed into the river. The plane struck a flock of geese on take off. The crash occurred off of 50th street in Manhattan. According to the FAA everyone on the plane is safe and off the plane.
Death Watch candidate, greenhouse tomato producer and employer of illegal immigrants, Eurofresh Farms, does not disappoint. The Company earlier filed an 8-K saying it will not pay interest on its 11.5% Senior Notes due 2013, but before bondholders scream bloody murder, "the non-payment does not constitute an event of default under the indenture" and that this is just a testing of whether this whole grace period things works....kinda like exactly a year ago when it did the same thing. Furthermore, Eurofresh "has initiated a strategic alternatives review process to take advantage of current market opportunities to enhance the capital structure." Well, they obviously know something Lazard doesn't cause last time we checked "market opportunities" thought that Nortel wasn't a very appropriate DIP candidate. It is likely that secured lender Silverpoint will just say enough, and take over the few hundred or so tomatoes that its secured credit facility is financing.
CNBC reporting that Banc of America to receive more tax money to fund their phenomenally well-run operation. With purchases such as Angelo Mozillo's golden parachute and Merrill Lynch's empty cubicles this makes lots of sense. Looks like federal guarantee will be $100-$200 billion...
According to sources, the indenture trustee on Six Flags' 12.25% Notes due 2016 has confirmed that a $24.5 million interest payment on the notes was made. This buys the company a whopping two weeks before it has to make its February 1 coupon payment on its 8.875% Notes due February 2010. If the Company decides not to pay that particular coupon, it will have paid $1.6 million a day to keep operating out of bankruptcy between now and then.
Translation: taxpayers, give us your wallets. Allegedly, GM will present a new top end estimate (which recently was the absolutely worst case estimate) of 10.5 million, down from 12 million, at a Deutsche Bank conference later today.
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We will keep posting them as we seem em.
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Lehman's bonds have recently traded at about 12 cents on the dollar indicating the market is expecting recoveries of around $16 billion on the roughly $150-160 billion of unsecured claims. Seems that if A&M continues doing their job efficiently (which is a change from prior sentiment, with bondholders using some very fancy expletives when referring to Bryan Marsal previously), then these bonds could actually run up quite a bit even in this horrendous environment. Also at 3pm Judge Peck appointed an examiner in the Lehman bankrtupcy case... Depending on just how big of a fan of Dick Fuld the examiner may be, all the actions of the Gorilla taken just before the bankruptcy may end up having a pretty Madoffesque impact on his current freely-roaming lifestyle.
In a first for 2009, a $200 million loan BWIC was distributed earlier this week, indicating the deleveraging of hedge funds' credit books is far from over. In late 2008 BWIC lists (Bids Wanted in Competition) were all the rage, as banks and prime brokerages were freezing collateral pools of funds that had gone under or were in the process of doing so, and selling the component holdings one piece at a time to the highest bidder, which would usually be a substantial discount to market price. The mere threat of BWIC was enough to keep loan prices very low since no manager wanted to buy a name outright in the market, as the very next day he or she might be able to pick it off a BWIC firesale. Despite the huge volume of notional marketed in BWIC (according to some estimates over $20 billion of loan in Q4 alone), the bids many agent banks received were so low they decided to keep the loans on their own balance sheets instead of getting even less pennies on the dollar for their collapsed prime brokeree.