Saturday, February 7, 2009

Weekend Reading

More on the commercial real-estate bubble pop as vacancies skyrocket and rents plunge (NYT)

Soldiers open fire on anti-government protesters in Madagascar (Sky News)

Barron's takes on Cramer in battle of worst media stock pickers (Barron's)

IMF joins Merrill Lynch: "Advanced economies already in depression" (Bloomberg)

Pessimistic insight from Bridgewater's Ray Dalio (Barron's)

We will go through a giant debt-restructuring, because we either have to bring debt-service payments down so they are low relative to incomes -- the cash flows that are being produced to service them -- or we are going to have to raise incomes by printing a lot of money.

There will be substantial nationalization of banks. It is going on now and it will continue. But the same question will be asked even after nationalization: What will happen to the pile of bad stuff?

Buying equities in late 2009, or more likely 2010, will be a great move because equities will be much cheaper than now.

U.S. Attorney General's office leaks secret memorandum to Washington Post (NRO)
The reason why the government will not destroy Wall Street is because it needs Wall Street's advice as it rebuilds Wall Street, or something comparably convoluted (Bloomberg)

Pay disparity in US exceeds France under last king, and no guillotines to be found (Naked Capitalism)

Dry bulk shipping surge to be shortlived (Lloyd's List)

Everthing about the Cash 4 Gold scam (OptionArmageddon)

Bank of America "absolutely does not need any more money"... until it does (NY Post)

Weekly Chartology
  • Q4 2008 negative earnings surprises rise despite dropping guidance
  • Recent S&P trading volume
  • Prior week best and worst performing sectors

  • Equity: Investors confident growth stocks will outperform
  • Equity: Volatility persisting
  • Credit Indices: CDS outperforming Cash (250 bps index negative basis)
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