Monday, February 23, 2009

Quote Of The Day From Nassim Taleb "A Return To Normalcy Would Be Black Swan"

The Vice Chairman of Doom, Nassim Taleb, was very eloquent today, claiming the next Black Swan event would be "for us to emerge out of this unscathed and return to normalcy. Compared with the Great Depression, this crisis is very different, and it requires much more drastic action.”

Tim Geithner must surely be relieved that he is on the receiving end of 6 sigma probabilities. Sphere: Related Content
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Advant Guard said...

More drastic action than exiting the Great Depression? Do he mention how many millions of people he thinks we need to kill? Buy Defence stocks!

Anonymous said...

The 1929 depression did not effect so many places so deeply as does this mess today. So I agree with Mr Taleb the solution will be more drastic than before.

Advant Guard posted buy defense stocks and this is a good comment. The risks of having this current mess get out of control could well lead to war.

I would suggest that we had better come up something better than trillions of dollars thrown into bailouts that do not work while leaving the system unreformed.

Speed is of the essence. Like it or not things have to change and change for real. No one likes or wants big change but there is no alternative except disaster and what Advant Guard sarcastically mentioned.

Anonymous said...

Not sure NNT would have any truck with 6 sigma and the Gaussian it implies - from my reading he has a fat tails point of view.