Monday, March 23, 2009

Tuesday is going to be big for the Euro

A bunch of critical numbers are coming out tomorrow including the German and EU purchasing manager index numbers and UK CPI and RPI indices. The US housing price index numbers are largely irrelevant after today's existing housing sales numbers and the consensus which has been priced in, is likely to be spot on.

Zero Hedge is expecting below consensus numbers for the German and EU purchasing indices despite the weakening Euro through the month of February and the already low numbers. The picture on the UK numbers are a little more mixed. The big news will be the movement on EUR/USD though from an investment perspective shorting a basket of Euro pairs makes more sense. If the numbers are lower than expected, the market reaction will speak volumes. The reaction is likely to give back much of the gains the Euro made against the dollar last week but will still end ahead on a WoW basis.

However, if the numbers are lower than consensus and the Euro holds the 1.355 level the outlook is pretty grim for the dollar on a 3-4 month horizon. Sphere: Related Content
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Anonymous said...

Are you short EUR/USD?

Cornelius said...

Ah, you're right should've included a disclosure.

DISCLOSURE: I am all square on FX currently.

Anonymous said...

You lack commitment Cornelius.

Vedran said...

ECB has been late to the "party" the entire time - downplaying (or not seeing) the global crisis, focusing on inflation, keeping rates too high. Now Trichet is telling us he is keeping rates where they are and they will not do any QE??

Question...How does one maintain the money supply and "orderly" markets in 16 different economies, 16 different cultures and histories, 16 different work habits, 16 different unemployment rates (example Austria at 4% and Spain at 15%) and one currency?

Just a thought.

Cornelius said...

Sorry, the Zero Hedge compliance team sent me a memo - I had to square up.

Anonymous said...

The euro is not going to give up anything, pal.

Waverider said...

In the 3rd par did you mean "higher than consensus"?