Monday, April 6, 2009

US Deficit Reaches $1 Trillion For First Half Of 2009

The Congressional Budget Office has released preliminary deficit numbers, which indicate that for the first half of 2009 the deficit has already hit $1 trillion, $640 billion more than the comparable 2008 period, when the deficit was $313 billion.

While the outlays can be explained by the massive TARP spending and other stimulus programs, the scariest piece of information is that receipts for March were $125 billion, $54 billion lower than the previous March. Additionally, receipts for H1 2009 were $986 billion, $160 billion lower than $1,146 billion in H1 2008.

It will be interesting how this massive drop on the income side of the budget will be explained by the photogenic President Obama.

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GS751 said...

Yeah and the original budget they were trying to pass implied 4% GDP growth after 2009, good luck with that one lmao.

Matt said...

So much for those who believe the economy has bottomed. Earnings and guidance are going to be horrible if the slowdown is accelerating that much into March.

J.P. Carter said...

Hey man,

Can we get a comprehensive set of ideas that get us moving in the right direction? You are really good at pointing out how bad things are. We know how bad they are! This PHD stuff about stats and what they mean is great, but it is all a bunch of rubbin' one out with the facts. Lay out a plan that takes all of your inside info into account and gives us a source of hope instead of a fucking doomsday scenario! If there is no hope, then shoot us straight. Soros says we are fucked, you say we are fucked, so is there hope? If not, then tell us in no uncertain terms what is coming. Commit to what you believe and what you expect.
Thanks for your time. Sorry for the cursing. Peace.

Anonymous said...


J.P. Carter,

Read between the lines. With the current administration there is no hope, as previously advertised.

I don't think TD is in the business of telling everyone what's in store for us in the future. That's a fools game. He or she just lays out the facts and lets the reader draw their own conclusions.

I have to thank the publishers of this blog for all the great stories and ideas that they present. Well done!

Aaron Krowne said...

JP -

Bring back the troops. Reduce defence spending to 30% higher than the spending of the next most powerful country. Balance the budget. Get rid of the Federal income tax. Abolish the Fed. No more bailouts (retract any that are outstanding to insolvent institutions). Get government out of healthcare.

Devalue the dollar to a level that monetizes the remaining public debt (which will be a lot) and balances trade. Peg the dollar to gold by offering to buy and sell it at market at the rate of the peg. Adjust if inflows or outflows of gold become too severe. The devaluation will fix the debt problem (both public and private); the gold peg will fix the confidence problem.

Increase the provision of one thing: welfare for basic food and shelter needs, which will help those hit hardest by the economic dislocation. Get rid of Social Security, since it is a scam and what do you need besides basic food/shelter anyway?

States will rebuild infrastructure with the money saved from taxes that would otherwise go to the Federal government.

Problem(s) solved. Not without lots of painful dislocations, but we're getting that anyways.

Anonymous said...

thats the problem...its going to take some pain to avoid a collapse and we dont want to take the pain. so we will collapse and the bankers who made the mess will leave for greener pastures and leave the mess behind.

Anonymous said...

Tyler, I wrote on your Cohen post. You guys are the shit man. I'm recommending you up there with my boy Mish and Reggie Middleton. Thanks for putting the truth out there.

This rally is total bullshit. Great time to scale into some SDS.

Anyway, congrats on the success, I hope it continues and thanks for all the reporting.

eh said...

Devalue the dollar to a level that monetizes the remaining public debt (which will be a lot) and balances trade.

All at once? They've begun to do that; patience. I don't think it matters how low the dollar sinks -- trade is not going to be 'balanced' because the US doesn't produce enough stuff that other people need or want and cannot buy better elsewhere. This is one reason American automakers are in trouble. In any case US political and military hegemony ('safe haven') is working to prop up the dollar regardless of other factors. Check out the other post on the size of the deficit and watch how that affects the dollar. Not.

Advant Guard said...

This, of course, is the deficit for 2009-- the last Bush budget. Obama will simply point out that he inherited this deficit. The drop off in tax revenue is cyclical, part of the automatic stabilizers that moderates the business cycle, so this is a good deficit, unlike when Congress spends money (which the government doesn't have) on Universal healthcare; that will be the bad deficit. You can blame Obama at that point (if we ever get there.) said...

Thankyou for your work.


Anonymous said...

"This, of course, is the deficit for 2009-- the last Bush budget"

While politically correct, it's not technically correct. Congress controls spending and there has been a democrat controlled congress since January 2007.

Anonymous said...

Another factor in the exploding
deficit is the Social Security
surplus is almost gone and the govt
will no longer be able to use it to
make the deficit look smaller.