Tuesday, May 19, 2009

2s10s30s Breaks Out

The UST 2s10s30s curve is breaking out of recent resistance levels, with the 2s10s steepening much more than the 10s30s, implying the 10Y is the most out of whack in the treasury curve. The trend has persisted since December implying not only that Quantitative Easing has lost all its power (is the Fed refocusing its purchasing efforts elsewhere?), but that the spread to mortgage rates which are 10Y duration hedged will continue suffering until it goes negative pretty soon.

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