Wednesday, April 1, 2009

The Economy Is Contracting A Lot More Rapidly Than The Government Is Reporting, Per TrimTabs

TrimTabs is out with their most recent employment data, which compares to the earlier ADP report, that the market forgot about after the first 30 minutes of trading. According to TrimTabs "the U.S. economy lost 700,000 to 750,000 jobs in March as wages and salaries plunged 4.5% year-over-year. TrimTabs estimated that the economy shed 4.3 million jobs in the past 12 months, the largest annual job loss since 1970."
"Job losses have been accelerating in recent months," said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs. "Investors who think the economy is bottoming out are going to get quite a shock this spring." TrimTabs uses daily income tax withholdings into the U.S. Treasury to estimate changes in employment. According to TrimTabs, the country lost 2.1 million jobs in the past three months and 3.4 million jobs in the past six months.
Much more interestingly, TrimTabs estimates that Joe Schmoe's conviction that the market has bottomed is translating into returns to good ole spending behavior and savings rates are in fact lower than reported, meaning the as savings rates inevitably run up, the pain for the economy will just get so much worse.
TrimTabs reported that the personal savings rate in February was much lower than the 4.2% reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. "Real-time income tax data indicates that personal income is plummeting and that the savings rate was no more than 0.9% in February," said Biderman. "The only reason the savings rate was positive was that income tax refunds were up sharply relative to last year."
And to add to the gloom and doom, which Zero Hedge does not disagree with, TrimTabs concludes: "The key macroeconomic and liquidity indicators TrimTabs tracks show no sign of a bottom for the economy. The economy is still contracting a lot more rapidly than the government is reporting."

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25 comments:

Anonymous said...

gotta give tyler props for quickly shuffling away that miserable "exclusive" about northern with 15 posts

Anonymous said...

seeking alpha seems to disagree with you

Anonymous said...

scratch that: 23 posts.

ghamal said...

I gotta give you props for having the courage and integrity to confront him about it via an anonymous post :-)

Anonymous said...

Tyler practices inventory control with his blog FIFO. And he knows how to work it.

Anyhow. "that the market forgot about after the first 30 minutes of trading."

Anyone check the CFTC Commitment of Traders report on Friday??

COWARDS retreat!

Where my short niggas at? Sittin' on the sidelines? Bitches!

Anonymous said...

"I gotta give you props for having the courage and integrity to confront him about it via an anonymous post"

my name is robert paulson

Dr. Phil said...

~
Can't we all just get along please? And stop this in-fighting.

Anonymous said...

Grant me a license theorize.

So GS makes a TON of CASH on the interest rate plays as a result of some nefarious .gov (or Fed) inside information.

Fast forward to payback time as J. Wellington Wimpy right click -->Open in New Window would say "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today". .Gov says to GS I'd gladly enrich you 1058% in 2010 for a little help proping the equities market up today...


Traders, Don't fight the trend!!

Anonymous said...

Do you guys actually think that Tyler Durden is his real name? Read a fracking book sometime. Hedgies love the pervie stuff. Something to do with their childhoods. Sicko bastards all of them...hunt on Craigslist when they aren't stealing money form trustafarians...we're all pseudo-anonymous now so crap on you if you don't like it.

Anonymous said...

You mean that wasn't really Dr. Phil who left the comment @ 5:56 pm?

Anonymous said...

Bring in all of the Joe Schmoe's who think that the market has bottomed. We need them BADLY! Just as bad as we need CNBC to keep them in place till it's too late. Volatility needs fuel.

Short traders, the tsunami will come to us either 1)over the weekend, or 2)during evening hours. Hold your shorts overnight and weekends but do not be a weak hand because of volatility. The tsunami will start in Eastern Europe as predicted, will take out Japan, UK/Ireland, Italy, and Spain. Germany will be knocked to her knees. Then it will set it's sights on the North, Central and South America.

Be prepaired for locked limit down days. The trade of a lifetime.

the tsunami

Anonymous said...

All that talk of tsunamies and once in a lifetime stuff got me thinking that after missing him in fiji by a week, maybe Bohdi is in Australia. But if he goes surfing in that, he's not comin back.

Anonymous said...

That Bohdi shi* above is some good stuff anon. Well done.

(previously known as Matthew)

Anonymous said...

at anon @ 6:48>>>

You have us joe schmoes shaking in our boots.


Where'z my biches??

Anonymous said...

Uhm, is Joe Schmoe related to Joe The Plumber?

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