Summary from the DB report:
(1) while home sales activity has picked up in some regions, much of it reflects clearing of distressed inventory and is accompanied by falling prices. Over the last several months, many MSAs reached their all time highs in affordability, helped by low mortgage rates. Unfortunately, affordability is no longer the driving issue in the housing market and we believe prices still have a ways to fall in many areas before home prices reach their trough. The bottom is closer but we are not there yet.Sphere: Related Content Print this post
(2) For the US we are now projection a further 14% decline from 1Q09 this compares to the 16.5% current to trough decline we published our last outlook in March '09.
(3) Affordability no longer an issue in most of the Top 10 MSAs in the US but factors such as unemployment, distressed inventory and home price momentum are combining to still result in quite negative current to trough outlooks in some large MSAs.
(4) In NY prices still have to drop an additional 32% from 1Q09 levels just to restore affordability to its historic high (1998) but including model risk factors beyond just affordability we are projecting a 40.6% decline from 1Q09 (vs 47.4% in March ).