Treasury Announces Record Borrowing Needs For Current Quarter

Well there's a shocker. The United States Treasury just announced that is will need to borrow $361 billion for the April-June Quarter, higher by $196 billion that announced previously in February, and is miles more than the same period last year when the Treasury had to borrow "only" $13 billion. This is traditionally the cash heavy tax-receipt quarter in which borrowing needs should be the lowest. Not only that, but Treasury will need to borrow $515 for the subsequent, July-September, quarter. Indicatively, the all time high borrowed amount was $569 billion in the October-December period. In the last quarter, the Treasury borrowed $481 billion, and ended the quarter with $269 billion in cash.

During the April – June 2009 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $361 billion of marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $245 billion, which includes $200 billion for the Supplementary Financing Program (SFP). The borrowing estimate is $196 billion higher than announced in February 2009. The increase in borrowing is primarily related to a continuation of the SFP, and lower receipts and outlays.

During the July – September quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $515 billion of marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $270 billion, which includes $200 billion for the SFP.

During the January – March 2009 quarter, Treasury borrowed $481 billion of marketable debt, finishing at the end of March with a cash balance of $269 billion, of which $200 billion was attributable to the SFP. In February, Treasury estimated $493 billion in marketable borrowing, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $225 billion. The decrease in borrowing was related to lower receipts offset by lower outlays and adjustments in the cash balance.

The current borrowing limit of $12.1 trillion (increased by Congress in February) will likely need to be reevaluated yet again, as the national debt now stands at $11.1 trillion. Incidentally, there is $100 billion of UST supply in 2, 5 and 7 year notes over the next 3 days.

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