Friday, April 24, 2009

Treasury 2s10s Curve Steeper Than Pre QE Announcement

Things for the Treasury sure aren't looking pretty. With the 10 year about to break 3% outright, the 2s10s chart has just passed pre-Quantitative Easing levels. With Treasury supply really starting to ramp up, this could be a bad sign for agencies and mortgage rates. This happens as the TIPS auction is largely oversubscribed. Seems that the market is happy to jump over the next 2-3 years of deflation and is looking straight at 2013.

Another interesting observation is that overnight Commercial Paper rates are spiking, in line with the most recent market top on April 17.

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