Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Overallotment: April 7

  • California bracing for tax revolt (Reuters)
  • Real estate industry hoping for TALF amendment as hail mary against CRE default tsunami (WSJ) [apparently they are not aware of the cramdown consequences of securitization in bankruptcy... more on this jolly topic tomorrow]
  • Megadeth Whitney generously allows Ken Lewis to keep his job (Bloomberg)
  • Obama: Spend now, save later (Reuters)
  • Despite dropping rents, vacancies jump (WSJ)
  • Another look at the CDS Big Bang (FT)
  • What unemployed CDO traders do after not getting a bonus (Slate)
  • GM to file bankruptcy imminently (Reuters) [the 1 million + unemployed as a result is likely priced in?]
  • ... And make Weil Gotshal $230 million richer (Bloomberg)
  • Unlike the administration, Roubini stays firm to his word (Reuters)
  • ...As the administration pumps yet another $5 billion in AIG despite threats of rebellion (FT)
  • Fickle public opinion: Aberdeen Asset Management says it ain't nuthin but a dead cat thing (Bloomberg)
  • Public pensions lose 40% (FT)
  • Kumar (without Harold) leaving TPG Axon to start own hedge fund (Bloomberg)
  • U.S. electric grid on the verge of hacker sabotage (WSJ)
  • Roubini: "Cramer is a buffoon" (NY Post)
with gratitude to Alex, Peter and Jesse for their generous donations

Robert Savage daily recap:

It was extremely quiet again today with the last "hot" headline prior to the lower than expected Alcoa earnings being the results of the 1 pm TIPS auction. While we find it hard to get too excited about a 3 bps tail on a $6bn auction, it is worth remembering that we still have $53bn of treasury supply later this week ($35bn 3-year notes tomorrow and $18bn 10-year notes Thursday). Fixed income aside, today was largely about equities,which drifted a few percentage points lower on little new news. Here it was a combination of 1Q earnings fears, a massive reduction in US consumer credit, and comments by Soros and others suggesting stocks were ready to take a breather that pushed prices lower. In FX,the mood was more mixed with the half-empty crowd selling/taking profit on cross JPY while the half-full crowd was adding/initiating EM longs. We also saw a decent amount of 2-way interest in the AUD as last night's 25 bps cut left some hoping for moreand others thinking the 40 bps priced in for the rest of the year is simply too much. In other news, the asset allocation trade seems to be alive and well in Europe with bunds selling-off/equities rallying aggressively into the European close. Speaking of Europe, the ECB's Provopoulous was on the tapes sounding very Trichet-esque: "I cannot exclude that we could go down from the present level (1.25%), although in a very measured way.” Tomorrow all eyes on the Fed minutes which should shed some light on the QE decision. Also worth paying close attention to the 811 level in the emini,which has been a huge focus point for technicians,and the results of the second TALF operation,which should come out later tonight. Sphere: Related Content
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7 comments:

Eric said...

What about company pension plans? It seems to me that there could be a disaster looming where the S&P 500 all have to top up their pension fund losses with cash.

Tyler Durden said...

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/03/pension-underfunding-as-next-earnings.html

Anonymous said...

By Chelsea Emery and Soyoung Kim

That's an actual Bloomberg byline?

Whoa. :-)

Anonymous said...

Err... Reuters byline. Still...

Anonymous said...

Tyler, you da man.
Great blog.
Many thanks.

Denovich said...

"Megadeth Whitney" excellent typo/spellcheck error.

Foreclosure of a Dream...
http://www.lyricsfreak.com/m/megadeth/foreclosure+of+a+dream_20091359.html

Rise so high, yet so far to fall.
A plan of dignity and balance for all.
Political breakthrough, euphorias high.
More borrowed money, more borrowed time.
Backed in a corner, caught up in the race.
Means to an end ended in disgrace.
Perspective is lost in the spirit of the chase.

/chorus/
Foreclosure of a dream,
Those visions never seen,
Until all is lost,
Personal holocaust.
Foreclosure of a dream.

...

Anonymous said...

~

http://i269.photobucket.com/albums/jj49/mikaelaeuro/awhellnahobama.jpg?t=1239182898