"ON A LONG ENOUGH TIMELINE, THE SURVIVAL RATE FOR EVERYONE DROPS TO ZERO"
blogs that are disproportionately focused on the downside are the next bubble to burst
blogs are more than happy to be focused on the upside. please point out the upside
California Association of Realtors reported that housing inventory excess has been wound down to 6.7 months' supply from 16.6 months' a year ago and is now well below the national average. Home sales doubled to 624k.
read this post on why foreclosure flipping has no bearing whatsoever on the overall economyhttp://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/01/push-to-postpone-inevitable-collapse-is.html
"foreclosure flipping has no bearing whatsoever on the overall economy"you cite rosenberg as the source for this conclusion...when in fact, the CAR data above was actually highlited today by rosenberg at the very end of his morning memo as "a sprinkle of good news." (very bottom of pg 7)the point is, the all-too-consenus thinking is that there is nothing constructive on the horizon after 14 months of downturn. that view is no longer rigorous.
not sure consensus thinking implies less rigor. quite the opposite. the only problem with consensus is not seeing outside the box. the market is all to happy to latch on to any news as positive and market bottom indicative only to be proven wrong again and again. the us consensus view for 30 years there is nothing destructive on the horizon. obviously that has proven wrong. at some point fatalists will of course also be wrong... just not any time soon :)
The economy and the market are quite different from one another. All the negative news being blogged about, i.e. available 'out there', is priced in the market. That is why the market makes attempts at recovery. My view: there is a higher probability of a +5% move during the next 20 days than a -5% move.
alas having been in the market far too long, i have realized just how inefficient at processing data and forecasting it is. more hedge and mutual fund managers read calculated risk than any other news media (which is dangerous in itself). i would not be surprised to see a +5 move in the market, after all it has dropped what 18% ytd: we need a kneejerk reaction. i have written befire about leading indicators, and how people are clutching at any one straw. there is no reason at this point for anything close to a sustainable rally
"at some point fatalists will of course also be wrong"good point...thx for the debate!
Post a Comment
Subscribe in a reader
Enter your email address:
Delivered by FeedBurner