Thursday, January 15, 2009

Death List Keeps Growing

We made some predictions yesterday about the bankruptcies to hit dockets today.... and they are starting to roll in:
  • Telecom company Charter not making coupon payments on the various notes we listed, to the tune over almost $75 million. 8% Notes of 2012 trading flat around 78
  • Smurfit Stone Container tells lenders it is likely filing for bankruptcy. Notes down 9 points to the single digits. Bloomberg notes that SSCC CDS in bps equivalent is roughly 19,000 over Libor... That'a a lot. They also juxtapose it to TIN, IP, and WY, all of which are sub 1000 bps, which could be read inversely as saying those three CDS are damn cheap
  • Perrenial Jefferies refi client ARG Enterprises which operates the fabulously named Black An(g)us restaurant chain pulling the plug

We will keep posting them as we seem em.

Sphere: Related Content

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Breaking Expose: So... Where are Frank and Charlie?

With the public's attention having been exclusively focused on Bernie, his sons Marc and Andrew, and Bernie's "three-man accountant company" lead by David Friehling, a question that is intriguing more and more people is who/what/where are Frank DiPascali, the 51 year old CFO of Bernard L Madoff, and Charles Wiener, Bernie's 50 year old nephew, listed as Director of Administration, who were the only other tenants on floor 17 of 885 Third Avenue.

According to his Brokercheck profile, Frank is still currently registered at Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC, CRD# 1527021, he is in fact "Jr", there have been no disclosures or suspensions filed against him (unlike his boss, whose crib sheet is quite prolific). Like a diligent schoolboy, Frank passed his Series 7 on June 21, 1986. Frank has been employed by Bernie since September 1975, over 33 years, meaning he joined when he was 18. On December 23, WSJ profiled DiPascali, who is represented by attorney Mark Mukasey, a high profile trial lawyer from Bracewell Giulianni. While DiPascali was quoted as saying that he "would like to see investors get back whatever they can", an SEC memo claimed that Frank has "responded evasively" to questioning after the regulators showed up at the 17th floor of the Lipstick building.

Frank is married to Joanne DiPascali of Howard Beach who is an employee of JP MorganChase National Association, the private banking arm of JPM. As noted here, Joanne works out of JPM's Iselin NJ office, which is where the firm's mortgage business is centered. In this March 29, 2006 memo, the Iselin office provided its 2 cents on just how smoothly the Nontraditional Mortgage Product market is operating. As seen in the following representative prospectus from a 2007 mortgage pool offering by that office, of the $473 million mortgage pool peddled probably by Mrs. DiPascali among others, only $181 million of mortgages had verification checks, $440 million are IOs and average outstanding balance is $476,000...So plot thickens - husband is chief financial officer to a ponzi as wife is potentially selling worthless mortgage pools... DiPascalis now live in Bridgewater, NJ, in what seems like a pretty decent house. In his spare time, Frank enjoys marlin fishing on his boat Dorothy-Jo, and he is actually quite good - he participated in the 2008 Mid-Atlantic $500,000 Marlin Fishing Tournament. Not only is fishing a hobby, but it seems to also be a family business (and who knows, maybe a money-laundering operation): since 2002 the couple has been running Dorothy-Jo Sportfishing, which according to manta.com has annual sales of over $230,000...

How about the other tenant of the 17th floor, Charles Wiener, Bernie's sister son. Charlie is registered broker, CRD# 1329906, with no publicly filed adverse disclosures. Charlie passed his Series 7 on 9/21/1985. He has been employed at Madoff securities since May, 1980 - 28 years. Charlie is married to Carolyn B. Wiener, a lawyer. Charles and Carolyn live in Centerport, NY. Carolyn is the Wiener (no pun) in Schaum and Wiener, of 600 Old Country Road in Garden City, NY. Co-founder Martin Schaum himself was in the brokerage business under the name Good-Rate Brokerage Ltd. As noted, Charlie's mother is Sondra Wiener, 74, who lives in the Ballenisles Country Club, a gated Palm Beach Enclave where annual membership costs $35,000-$115,000, and is a stone-throw away from Jupiter Island. Sondra and her husband, Marvin, are neighbors to such celebrities as Serena and Venus Williams. The NY Post recently noted that Bernie scammed even his own sister, and Charlie's mother, to the tune of an estimated $3 million. Sondra was one of the recipients of a Christmas goody bag that was sent under the nose of his overseers, which included $1 million in valuables including Cartier and Tiffany watches. These were promptly recollected by lawyers. On December 19, a week after Bernie's confession, Marvin and Sondra put their 3 bedroom, 2 garage, 3,409 sq. foot home on the market with an asking price of $849,000 (any buyers can call Sandy Pitchford at PalmBeachGardens.com, at (561) 427-7262 - this home will easily have phenomenal goodwill (or badwill) appreciation in coming years). The home was purchased by the couple in 2003, the year it was built, for $650,000. A neighbor is quoted that Sondra "was a victim in this. It didn't seem like she saw it coming. What kind of person scams their own sister?" Or their mother, we would ask. Which would be the case if you are Charlie, and if, indeed, you had insight into you uncle's Ponzi operation. If Charlie is found to be guilty of prior knowledge, one could say that his punishment should be even worse than Bernie's, as the latter at least tried to give his relatives and family members some last minute parting gifts. Robbing your own 70 year old mother of her life savings would be inexcusable... Of course this line of thought presumes that Sondra herself was completely innocent and did not know anything about Bernie's actions, which is also yet to be proven.

Maybe we spoke too early when we said that Shrenker's life story shames Berney . If a high-level investigation into the Madoff octopus reveals so much shadiness that even Mario Puzo would cackle contentedly, one can only imagine what will be revealed when the Feds and the SEC actually stop twiddling their thumbs and do their job for once.

We hope to continue with Part 2 of this investigation tomorrow as time permits Sphere: Related Content

Breaking News: Steve Jobs to take Medical Leave Until End of June

"Team, I am sure all of you saw my letter last week sharing something very personal with the Apple community. Unfortunately, the curiosity over my personal health continues to be a distraction not only for me and my family,but everyone else at Apple as well. In addition, during the past week I have learned that my health-related issues are more complex than I originally thought. In order to take myself out of the limelight and focus on my health,and to allow everyone at Apple to focus on delivering extraordinary products,I have decided to take a medical leave of absence until the end of June. I have asked Tim Cook to be responsible for Apple's day to day operations, and I know he and the rest of the executive management team will do a great job. AsCEO, I plan to remain involved in major strategic decisions while I am out.Our board of directors fully supports this plan."

We wish him well. Sphere: Related Content

And The Hits Keep on Coming

According to TrimTabs, record $148 Billion in Hedge Fund outflows in December.

Deleveraging may have a day or two to go. Sphere: Related Content

Meredith Whitney: Sell Financials (You Were Expecting?)

Diplomacy 101:

Maria Bartiromo: "Should people be shorting Citi at $4.53?"
Meredith Whitney: "I would diversify out of financials here."

There is a glimmer of hope: "I would be buyer of American Express.... at $15" Sphere: Related Content

Vikram Memo to Employees

January 14, 2009

From: Vikram Pandit

Dear Citi Colleagues,

I want to make sure you know that we’ve moved up our Q4 2008 earnings announcement to this coming Friday, January 16. Since we are ready to release 4th quarter earnings and talk about 2009 and the future, we saw no need to wait.

As I told you yesterday in my video message, economics and psychology are both important in the markets. The economic model of our business is sound and positions the company for success over the long term. The clarity we provide as we report earnings should address the psychology of the market.

Until then, here are the things you should know:

* While we are embarked on a long-term transformation of Citi, our core mission is unchanged. Our goal is to streamline our operations,strengthen our balance sheet, position ourselves to take advantage of historic global growth opportunities, and deliver to clients all the benefits of our strength, insight, and unique global reach.

* We are and will remain a bank. We will continue to help clients save,borrow, invest, transact, and we will provide them advice.

* Our commitment to our clients remains unchanged. We will continue to deliver what our clients expect from us. That is our firm commitment.Please reiterate that to the customers and clients you speak with today.

We continue to be focused on creating value for our shareholders and debt holders and restoring profitability sooner rather than later.

Thank you for your dedication, focus, and hard work. I look forward to speaking with you on Friday. Sphere: Related Content

Breaking News: Bernie Taking Kia Sorrento Back Home

District Judge Lawrence McKenna upheld the bail ruling... Guess the choppers on Lex and 64th will keep on bugging Madoff neighbor Matt Lauer indefinitely. We once again push forward the idea for converting the penthouse at 133 East 64th to a museum of Unmitigated Greed. $25 entrance fee... Start recouping those losses already! Sphere: Related Content

Lehman Posts Bankruptcy Status Update

Once the 4th largest investment bank in the U.S., and the house that Dick Fuld built, Lehman Brothers' today posted an update of its reorganization status in an 8K with the SEC. In a very interesting analysis by Alvarez & Marsal, several things become obvious. Among the more noteable are: the debtors' objective is to emerge from bankruptcy in 18-24 months (vs. others' estimates that the unwind of the estate could last as long as 10 years), the total value of planes that Lehman has owned is $164 million and Lehman's artwork adds another $30 million.

Among facts stated which are actually relevant for creditors are:
  • Total headcount has been reduced from 25,158 at filing 9/15/2008 to 4,142 at 1/1/2009

  • A&M has 6 asset teams in place with defined tasks/plans

  • Cash position has grown from $3.3 billion at filing to almost $7 billion on 1/2/2009

  • Cash generated from asset sales is $1.7 billion consisting of $1.3 billion Barclays sale, $0.2 billion sale of Eagle Energy, and $0.1 billion R3 sale (Ed. to mega insider Rick Rieder)

  • $145 million generated from subsidiary receipts, $86 million from investments and $17 from other.

  • All this was offset by $293 million to keep the liquidation "operating"

  • Lehman's loan portfolio at end of 2008 was $33 billion retianed and $8.4 billion pledged

  • Reduced continget liability: unfunded commitments have been reduced by $6.3 billion (20%) mitigating potential claim exposure

  • Carrying value of its 1,409 private equity principal investments was $12.3 billion

  • Interestingly, total Real Estate Assets, allegedly the rotten fruit that was the cause of all this shebang, were valued at $42.9 billion (of which residential was only $3.4 billion, and the balance is commercial real estates spread among North America, Europe and Asia)

  • Currently Lehman notes it has 45 legacy commercial real estate teams in place, 3 residential, and 8 corporate

  • Lehman's derivatives book has been successful in collecting $2 billion in cash as of 1/2/2009; Curiously in the Deriv Book, there was $23.8 billion of receivables at petition with 3,930 ISDA counterparties (of this $14.3 billion, or 1,808 counterparties has been terminated)

  • Neuberger Berman sale results in a $1.8 billion realized investment: $1 billion in retained stock and $0.8 billion in retained cash

  • And of course the other assets, which are probably most interesting to our readers, which include a 2008 G550 airplane, 3 CRJ 200s, one Boeing 767 and one Sikorsky 76C

Lehman's bonds have recently traded at about 12 cents on the dollar indicating the market is expecting recoveries of around $16 billion on the roughly $150-160 billion of unsecured claims. Seems that if A&M continues doing their job efficiently (which is a change from prior sentiment, with bondholders using some very fancy expletives when referring to Bryan Marsal previously), then these bonds could actually run up quite a bit even in this horrendous environment. Also at 3pm Judge Peck appointed an examiner in the Lehman bankrtupcy case... Depending on just how big of a fan of Dick Fuld the examiner may be, all the actions of the Gorilla taken just before the bankruptcy may end up having a pretty Madoffesque impact on his current freely-roaming lifestyle.

Sphere: Related Content

BWICs are Bwack As Funds Resume Dismantling Themselves

In a first for 2009, a $200 million loan BWIC was distributed earlier this week, indicating the deleveraging of hedge funds' credit books is far from over. In late 2008 BWIC lists (Bids Wanted in Competition) were all the rage, as banks and prime brokerages were freezing collateral pools of funds that had gone under or were in the process of doing so, and selling the component holdings one piece at a time to the highest bidder, which would usually be a substantial discount to market price. The mere threat of BWIC was enough to keep loan prices very low since no manager wanted to buy a name outright in the market, as the very next day he or she might be able to pick it off a BWIC firesale. Despite the huge volume of notional marketed in BWIC (according to some estimates over $20 billion of loan in Q4 alone), the bids many agent banks received were so low they decided to keep the loans on their own balance sheets instead of getting even less pennies on the dollar for their collapsed prime brokeree.

Traditionally the names making up BWICs are more arcane and illiquid, and as such rarely move the market much on some of the most liquid loans/bonds, but on occasion you would find a bid list (Highland's Credit Opportunity Fund liquidation would be a great case in point) full of juicy, liquid names.

The list marketed currently is made up of 74 different loans, with the largest notional on offer being Medial Media Holdings 1st Lien Term Loan at roughly $10 million, and some of the other larger issues contained being BioTech Research Labs TL B, US Cable Coast TL B, DR Horton Revolver, Attachmate Corporation TL and Triumph Healthcare 1st Lien TL (by the preponderance of health-related names this was likely a healthcare hybrid hedge fund). Some of the more popular names contained are Tenneco Tranche B1, American Airlines B2, Movie Gallery TL and CIT revolver.

With all claims that the deleveraging of the market may be over, the quantity of BWICs is actually the best indicator of whether or not this is true. If the market today is any indication stay tuned for a lot more BWICs hitting the tape soon.
Sphere: Related Content

Gannett to Fire Everyone for a Week

In a memo to its employees, the struggling newspaper company announced that all workers, including CEO Craig Dubow, will take one week unpaid leave this quarter to help the publisher save money. Sphere: Related Content

740 Park Resident Angry That Other Members of Firm Also Greedy

Message from Steve Schwarzman

Issued: January 13, 2009

I am both saddened and outraged to have to tell you that the SEC has brought a civil complaint today against Ramesh Chakrapani in our Corporate Advisory Services Group, charging him with passing on inside information three years ago about a pending transaction on which he worked as a 30 year old vice president.

We are all shocked by this alleged breach of the law and violation of our firm’s compliance policies and ethical standards. This employee has been suspended and we have told the authorities that they will have our firm’s full cooperation in their investigation into this matter.
This is the first time in the firm’s 24-year history that any employee of the firm has been accused of any infringement of securities laws. Abuse of inside information goes against everything our firm stands for. I have personally made it an absolute priority to speak to each new class of analysts and associates about the prime importance of protecting confidential information and guarding against insider trading. Our employees’ absolute integrity at all times and careful protection of any confidential information that comes into their possession have been the foundation of the reputation we have earned for professionalism and ethical conduct in everything we do, and these allegations undermine the many years of good work by all of the rest of us. I am personally infuriated that one person’s behavior could damage our unblemished record built up over nearly a quarter century.


Should you receive any calls about this matter, please refer them all to [redacted]. Because this case is the subject of a pending investigation, we would also ask you to refrain from discussing it with anyone. Sphere: Related Content

Ponzasaur About to be Carted Off...

...in a Kia Sorrento???? oh the indignity... in what will probably be his last trip in a non Department of Corrections vehicle, Bernie will have to indulge in all the comfort of this Korean creem of the crop...

On the other hand it could have been this.

************ UPDATE ***********

For a second seemed the Kia was trying to pull an Austin Powers three point turn in an 8 foot wide one way street.... false alarm.... stay tuned

************UPDATE 2***********

In a brilliant piece of reporting, CNBC says the Kia's windows will "likely not stop a sniper's bullet". true... true...

***********UPDATE 3************

And they're off... good work navigating the 64th street traffic...

***********UPDATE 4************

Good to see that CNBC agrees with our assessment of the vehicle Sphere: Related Content

In Other News: TED Spread "Down"

In seeming vindication of Kudlow's theory that all shall be well, the TED spread is ignoring the slew of bankruptcies, the bottom falling out of the market, Zimbabwe's trillion % inflation rate, Vikram's impending pink slip birthday present, and tightening to 0.98%, its tightest spread in 5 months. Sphere: Related Content

Today is File Bankruptcy for Free, Get an Expensive Advisor in Exchange Day

Just filed Chapter 11 - Gottschalk's and Goody's, both in Delaware...

Many more to come Sphere: Related Content

One Down, Few More To Go

Nortel already decided to pull the plug and set Lazard's plan for weekly trips to the slumdens of Toronto in motion.

Next on Deck are the following (di)stressed companies with coupon payments due today (this is not an exhaustive list):

AbitibiBowater - 15.5% Notes due 7/15/2015 and 10.6% Notes due 1/15/2011
Allis-Chalmers - 9.0% Notes due 1/15/2014
Ames True Temper - FRNs due 1/15/2012
Atlantic Broadband - 9.375% Notes due 1/15/2014
Charter Communications - 11.125% Notes due 1/15/2011 and 13.5% Notes due 1/15/2011
City of Kiev (Not Holding our Breath on This One) - 8.625% Notes due 7/15/2011
Clear Channel (CCU) - 4.5% Notes due 1/15/2010 and 5.750% Notes due 1/15/2013
Dillards - 6.625% Notes due 1/15/2018 and 7.75% Notes due 7/15/2026
Eurofresh - 11.5% Notes due 1/15/2013 and 14.5% Notes due 1/15/2014
Evergreen Solar - 4% Convertible Notes due 7/15/2013
Hovnanian - 6.5% Notes due 1/15/2014
HRPT Properties - 6.5% Notes due 1/15/2013
KKR Financial - 7% Convertible Notes due 7/15/2012
Kraton Polymers - 8.125% Notes due 1/15/2014
Levi's - 9.75% Notes due 1/15/2015
Linens N Things (Ooops, not holding breath here either) - FRNs due 1/15/2014
Macy's - 4.8% Notes due 7/15/2009; 5.75% Notes due 7/15/2014; 7.875% Notes due 7/15/2015; 7.45% Notes due 7/15/2017; 6.650% Notes due 7/15/2024; 6.790% Notes due 7/15/2027; 6.9% Notes due 1/15/2032; 6.7% Notes due 7/15/2034
Nexstar Communications - 7.0% Notes due 1/15/2014
Noranda Aluminum - 7.250% Notes due 7/15/2012
Nova Chemicals - 6.5% Notes due 1/15/2012
Primus Telecom - 8.0% Notes due 1/15/2014
Reckson Operating - 5.150% Notes due 1/15/2011
RH Donnelley - 6.875% Notes due 1/15/2013; 8.875% Notes due 1/15/2016
Sensata Tech - 11.25% Notes due 1/15/2014
Simmons (no breath holding here) - 7.875% Notes due 1/15/2014
Six Flags - 12.25% Notes due 7/15/2016
Stone Container (Smurfit) - 7.375% Notes due 7/15/2014
Trina Solar - 4% Convertible Notes due 7/15/2013
Univision - 7.875% Notes due 7/15/2011
Vought Aircraft - 8.0% Notes due 7/15/2011
Young Broadcasting - 8.75% Notes due 1/15/2014

We say at least 30% of these guys file. Either way it will be a busy day for back offices everywhere as fund flows (or lack thereof) are processed. We will keep a close eye out and will let you know in the next day or two just how the carnage plays out. Sphere: Related Content

Breaking News: Sam Israel's GF Charged with Introducing Contraband in Jail

Does anyone even watch daytime soaps anymore? CNBC reporting... More to come

********** UPDATE ***********

Bloomberg reports Debbie Ryan, girlfriend of Sam, is pleading not guilty in helping him escape. She entered her plea before Magistrate Judge Lisa Margaret Smith at federal court in White Plains. Turns out she had been arrested January 9th. She is barred from any contact with Sam and is out on $75,000 bail. She faces a 10 year prison sentence if convicted. Sphere: Related Content

New Missive from Howard Marks

The latest letter from the intellectual titan of Oaktree... Enjoy Sphere: Related Content

Nortel Fiasco Causing Ripples

In an example of what we will be seeing a whole lot more of in the next few days, Flextronics issued a press release, claiming "it has been proactively engaged in executing a risk mitigation plan with respect to its relationship with Nortel for a period of several months. In December 2008, Flex engaged The Blackstone Group as it financial advisor to assist with evaluating the Nortel relationship and planning for any Nortel restructuring strategy." In addition, Flextronics will provide more specific financial details associated with today's news on its January 28, 2PM earnings call. We shall see just how capable Blackstone is at diarrhea containment soon enough. In the meantime we expect a line of Nortel suppliers and clients to come out with comparable press releases, many of which unfortunately will not have been as prepared as Flextronics.

Full text of press release here Sphere: Related Content

Galloway and Rattner Joining Forces to Make Sure All Well At NYT

In a rather edgy back and forth between Michael Hirschorn of the Atlantic and Catherine Mathis, SVP Corporate Communications at the NYT, each one blames the other for calling the kettle black. Turns out Mike said NYT will file for chapter 11 in May, roughly around the time their credit facility expires as we already noted, the market might be underestimating the probability of its presumed imminent demise if recent CDS levels are any indication.

The facts that the NYT does not dispute are the following:

• We have two revolving credit agreements.

• These are agreements with banks that allow us to borrow up to $400 million under each agreement, or $800 million in total, whenever we need it. We repay what we have borrowed as cash comes in and the amount we can borrow is then replenished.

• One of our agreements will expire in May 2009 and the other in June 2011.

• As we have said publicly on more than one occasion, because we believe we need significantly less than the total $800 million available credit, we do not plan to replace the full $400 million that is expiring in May. There is no need to do so.

• We are in the process of pursuing a sale-leaseback for up to $225 million for some of the space we own in our headquarters building

Where they seem to disagree is whether or not NYT follows in poor Nortel's footsteps in a 4 brief months.

So listen up Scott Galloway, Phil Falcone and Sulzberger best friend Steve Rattner - now is a time to step up, and either dump some more cash in this phenomenally performing business or turn the spin machine on turbo.
Sphere: Related Content

Market in Free Fall

After news such as retail sales, Deustche Bank earnings, HSBC earnings, bad tiffany's news combined with a cut in guidance, a couple of bankruptcies, and a whole lot more, and the S&P index is currently down 20pts... Should make for an interesting day Sphere: Related Content