Thursday, February 19, 2009

Early Thursday Headlines

  • GSEs' exponentially growing backing: now at $400 billion (Washington Post)
  • The end of anonymous Swiss bank accounts: huge political implications (Reuters)
  • European banks agree to CDS clearinghouse (Bloomberg)
  • Stock rock stars (NY Post)
  • Bank of Japan buying $10 billion of corporate bonds (FT)
  • U.S. losing its allies one by one: Kyrgyzstan votes to close Afghanistan crucial airbase (FT)
  • Stanford investors scramble to get their money back (Reuters)
Sphere: Related Content

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Late Wednesday Headlines

  • UBS to reveal names of tax cheats as part of DOJ Settlement, presumably more than just current administration officials (Bloomberg)
  • Cerberus' Japanese Aozora bank lost money on everything from GMAC to Madoff (Bloomberg)
  • Next bail out target: Eastern Europe (FT)
  • Another trucker prepares for bankruptcy, this time Sun Capital company Mark IV (Debtwire)
  • GM Bondholders say restructuring plan is worthless (WSJ)
  • And why without Bondholders, there is no plan (Reuters)
  • Stanford's private equity connections (Deal Journal)
Sphere: Related Content

Riverton Debacle Escalates

Larry Gluck and Stellar LLC who had hoped to auction off the Riverton Harlem housing project on Friday, got some more bad news today, when Wells Fargo announced it is seeking foreclosure on the 1,230 unit apartment complex. The auction has now been cancelled until further notice according to Steve Solomon, a spokesman for Gluck. Wells, which has problems of its own with its stock hitting an all time low of $12.06 today, is custodian for a bunch of illiterate CMBS investors who bought into the Riverton property several years ago. Now they are stuck with major losses on the property behing the loan, originally evaluated at $340 million. The bank has asked New York State Supreme Court to order the properties to pay $225 million in principal plus interest, fees and late charges. Good luck collecting, seeing as the property had been scheduled to be auctioned off on February 20 for about $196 million. According to Andy Day a CMBS guru at MS, the Riverton complex may appraise for "substantially less" than $196 million. The case is actively followed as it will serve as a benchmark for a true market test of the atrocious state of New York commercial real estate.

The case is Wells Fargo Bank v. RP Stellar Riverton and Gluck, 09101491, Supreme Court of New York (Manhattan). Sphere: Related Content

Next On The Bankruptcy Block... BCBG Max Azria?

Whoodathunkit. The fashion company actually has debt... And not just any debt, but rapidly maturing one at that. BCBG has a $20 million loan payment in March which is very unlikely it will be able to make. Things are so bad even S&P came out of its rat hole and downgraded the company to CCC+

Quote S&P:

"We are very concerned with BCBG's liquidity position. The company had $20 million available in cash and its revolving credit line in early January, however it also has a $20 million loan payment due in March."

"Declining sales at Max Rave, which BCBG acquired in 2006, is also likely to push the subsidiary to break minimum earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) terms in its loan agreements."

"We do not expect Max Rave to meet its minimum EBITDA covenant. This does not
constitute an immediate event of default but could prove distracting for management. The 2006 acquisition of the Max Rave business added to the company's business risk and it continues to underperform because of negative sales trends."
For all hedge funds trying to DIP their finger into something saucy look no further (wink wink Aladdin). A wacky owner who loves dancing on couches, Fashion week passes for life, models everywhere, and a modest amount of money ahead of a potential loan-to-own. This should pass any investment committee.
Sphere: Related Content

The Straw That Broke The Camel's Back: SEC Sues UBS For Ill-Gotten Gains

Developing News:

The legal developments for UBS just keep getting worse and worse. The latest comes in the form of a lawsuit by the SEC, alleging UBS reaped at least $380 million of ill-gotten gains by acting as an unregistered broker dealer and investment adviser. Not sure how this one works unless they had some shadow division that was not under the general UBS AG corporate umbrella. Or maybe this is the secret Ponz that Harry said he would disclose - would be oddly elegant to blame the Swiss for our troubles for once.

The Securities and Exchange Commission filed the case today at federal court in Washington as part of a U.S. criminal and regulatory inquiry into whether clients at the Zurich-based bank avoided taxes. Sphere: Related Content

Today's Bankruptcy Monitor: Foamex Redux

Just when we thought today, contrary to statistical expectations, may be bankruptcy free, Foamex came out of left field with its first day motions. The company, which had emerged from its most recent bankruptcy in early 2007, was impacted by a drop in auto sales and mattress products, its two key end markets, while laboring under a massive debt load. The company has obtained $95 million of DIP commitments from Bank of America and MatlinPatterson, which is trying to put new capital to good use and quickly forget about its disastrous investment in Thornburg Mortgage.

While not definitive, it is likely these entities were in the capital structure previously; however one certain loser from the transaction is DE Shaw, whose distressed group had owned 191 million shares of Foamex stock as a result of the rights offering in its prior bankruptcy (and the resulting loss in capital cost certain high placed individuals at DE Shaw Distressed their jobs).

Foamex must have copied this clip in its press release from the last time it filed for bankruptcy:

Foamex will use chapter 11 to implement its balance sheet restructuring initiatives, which are designed to restore the Company’s business to long-term financial health, while continuing to operate in the normal course of business. Foamex anticipates that its day-to-day operations will continue as usual without interruption during the chapter 11 process, which is expected to last approximately six months.
We have heard that before.

Foamex has hired Akin Gump as legal counsel. It apparently did not use the repeat services of Miller Buckfire, and instead opted for Houlihan Lokey with the hope that this time it might actually emerge with a manageable debt load.

****Update****

Nope, not one...two bankruptcies today. Consulting company BearingPoint folded as well. Read about it here. Sphere: Related Content

USA CDS Hits All Time Wide Of 90 Bps

The cost to insure against a U.S. default hit an all time high of 90 bps today ($90k on $10 million in insurance). Again, who pays if it defaults? Sphere: Related Content

Manhattan Real Estate To Drop 50%?

Presented without comment

Sphere: Related Content

Meredith Whitney Leaves Oppenheimer To Start Own Firm

The dominatrix of doom who singlehandedly brought down Citi (with a little help from Vikram), has decided to call it quits at Oppenheimer and is starting Meredith Whitney Advisory, an "Investment Bank for the New Age". No news yet if husband John Layfield will be Head Of Compliance, or if Dick Bove will quit Rochdale after one day of employment, to start the under the dominatrix. However, one may ask, now that there are no financial firms left anymore, who will Meredith focus on? Spreading doom and gloom has lost its novelty so the business model may have to be adjusted.

To: DL - Opco Alert
Subject: Meredith Whitney
Sent: Feb 18, 2009 2:21 PM
It is with great regret that we announce that our long time partner Meredith Whitney is resigning to found her own independent advisory business. Meredith joined Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. in 1993 as a research associate covering the Oil and Gas Industry. By 1995, she had switched industries, joining our Institutional Investor ranked Specialty Finance Group. During her tenure at the firm from 1995-1998, she helped write research reports on the fall of Glass-Steagall, the emerging boom of the credit card industry, the perils of sub-prime finance and gain on sale accounting, and the securitization market, to name but a few. In 1998, Meredith left the firm to pursue other opportunities which included a tour of duty as the Head of Financial Institutions Research at Wachovia. (hat tip Dealbreaker) Sphere: Related Content

$60 Million For Lifetime Romps At The Playboy Mansion

For any still employed bankers, who aren't currently experiencing margin calls from their employer, and who plan on making a solid 20% on the bonanza that TBT will unlikely generate by the end of the year, here is the deal of a lifetime. For a paltry $60 million, you can buy Playboy Enterprises, which in a conference call today announced it is willing to sell itself for the right price... or the wrong price... or any price. With the stock currently trading at $1.60, the company's $60 million market cap might seem like a bargain when considering the fringe benefits. (of course you need to assume $90 million of net debt but with the HY market on fire this should be easily refinanceable. Just hire Jefferies to do it)

According to Playboy's latest 10-K, Playboy Enterprises is the legal owner of the Playboy Mansion, and Heff is just a lessor, paying rent to the Company. So for $60 million you get lifetime access to the legend, the brand, the grotto... and some softcore magazines and TV stations to boot. As any self-respecting 30 year old hedge funder should easily be able to afford the $60 mill, they would be stupid not to do it. After all, on any one given night out in NY, the same person would spend at least $1,000 for limos, bottle service, tipping bouncers, assorted stimulants, escorts, etc. Of course this should happen no less than 2-3 times a week as otherwise your co-workers would think much less of you, implying a bill of $10k a month, or $120k a year. Multiply this by the 30-50 additional years (granted this number may be much lower) of life expectancy, and the same guy ends up spending over $5 million, or $20 million inflation adjusted. For a mere $40 million more you are guaranteed an appreciating asset, no amortization, amazing parties all night every night, the occasional Entourage episode shooting, Scott Baio as a lifetime friend, and being the coolest human being in the entire hedge fund world bar none. No price can be put on the latter. Sphere: Related Content

European Telecom Credits Mauled

Interesting CDS insight from Markit's own Gavin Nolan. The Eastern European weakness is spreading from sovereigns to corporates, with telecoms that have EE exposure being blown out of the water. Telenor, Hellenic Telecom, Telekom Austria and TeliaSonera most impacted today. Expect this to spread to consumer, industrials and tech.



Sphere: Related Content

Goldman Partners Forced to Borrow Money...

...To cover Goldman margin calls! That's what happens when you borrow from your company against its own stock only to see it plummet. Allegedly only a few partners affected. The irony continues - Goldman itself will advise the partners (for a fee) on how to deal with these margin calls...

Courtesy of Gasparino. Sphere: Related Content

17% Default Rate Implies Default A Day

Nothing so far today, means two tomorrow.

In the meantime apparently there was movement higher in auto term loans today as the rescue proposals imply government funding would rank junior to existing private financing. Chrysler, Ford and GM all gained 2-3 points in intraday trading.

Also, Bernanke to release Long-Term economic forecasts and present the Fed's long-term inflation goal. Fed says "credit risk in Fed actions exceptionally low." Greenspan used to say bubble risk in Fed actions exceptionally low too... Sphere: Related Content

The Negative Convexity Of CDS Trading And Why CDOs Chase Markets

Anyone who has ever traded CDS has noticed the self-fulfilling prophecy of accelerated widening or tightening on an initial move in single name spread. This phenomenon has stumped traditional cash credit investors who don't realize the peculiar technicalities of the CDS market. It is explained by dealer structured credit desks that tend to chase the market, meaning as spreads widen they buy CDS, and vice versa. Because of this, otherwise small moves in single names can lead to profound jumps in spread.

How does it work:
  • A client sells a synthetic CDO tranche to a structured credit desk. The desk is now long risk in the CDO. From a transaction perspective, the client bought CDO CDS while the desk sold the protection.

  • The dealer has to offset risk and can either buy protection on the same CDO tranche or hedge by proxy thru single-name CDS. As the CDO world is limited and at times very illiquid, usually the easiest trade is to use single-names as hedges.

  • Dealers use models to estimate how much a CDO tranche should move for a given move in the underlying spread. The below chart shows amount of single-name CDS a desk needs to buy in order to hedge $100 mm long risk from CDO position. As spreads widen, the dealer has to buy more and more protection to hedge (i.e. negative convexity).


  • Assume the correlation desk bought CDO when spread was 150 bps. To hedge, the dealer bought $250 mm single-name CDS. Now the portfolio spread moves 50 bps wider so average single-name spread is 200 bps. Dealer looks at the model and realizes $250 mm hedge is too small and now needs $300 million, which difference ($50 million) in the single-name he promptly goes to the market and buyss, thereby pushing prevailing offers even wider in the process, starting a feedback loop for other CDO managers in the market. As spreads continue to widen, the dealer (and other comparable CDO desks) are forced to continue buying more and more protection, thereby chasing the market and exacerbating the moves wider.

In practice, the trading dynamics are more complicated but fall along these lines. Dealers are usually buyers of mezzanine tranche protection and hedge by selling single-name CDS. As spreads widen, mezz-tranches become more equity like and mezz tranche hedge-ratios vs single-name CDS tend to decrease as spreads widen. This implies the size of dealers' single name hedges relative to mezz tranches might end up being too great as spreads increase and as a result dealers will need to decrease hedges by buying single-name protection. And vice versa when spreads tighten.

Sphere: Related Content

CLO Forward Calendar Alive And Well

CLOs, or the guys who many allege got us into this whole mess, are alive and kicking. The forward calendar for capital raises for CLOs indicates almost $1.8 billion in capital is set to be raised for 5 managers. Among them are TCW, ING, Stanfield, ING and Aladdin... Wait, wasn't the last one supposed to be ending its CLO operations and migrating to DIPs only? Oh well. Calendar below.


Sphere: Related Content

Wells Fargo Stock Downward Momentum Hits Afterburners

At record low of $12.40. The whole "more sellers than buyers" theme... Sphere: Related Content

Dresdner To "Voluntarily" Eliminate Banker Bonus Guarantees

In the latest twist on the bonus debacle, Dresdner Kleinwort (bought recently by German megabank Commerzbank from another megabank Allianz), which is not known for wise financial decisions (let's buy Wasserstein for an insane amount of $$$, only to see him bail a year later) has asked bankers to "voluntarily" give up all bonuses, even contractually guaranteed ones. This is a curious decision on dealing with guarantees which will likely be incorporated by all companies that have locked-in guaranteed bonus schemes. Commerzbank's CFO Eric Strutz has this comment:
"I call on those who generated losses to live up to their responsibility. We are counting on their goodwill."
Banker goodwill? Turns out bankers at DK were promised bonuses, and the concern is that they may now sue to get what is contractually theirs. More from Strutz:
“I’m optimistic that others will follow the good example”of investment bankers that have agreed to forgo bonuses, Strutz said. The bank “regrets” it won’t pay bonuses to employees at profitable divisions such as the retail and corporate banking units, he said, adding that it is “hard to explain” this to workers in those units.
Dresdner hopes bankers won't leave because, as Strutz puts it, “We want employees that aren’t only interested in material things. Bankers who only look at their paycheck aren’t usually very loyal." Let's not forget the free coffee and the free German lessons. Just goes to show how deluded the administration can be. The only reason employees won't go anywhere is because they have nowhere to go. Sphere: Related Content

Paying $75 Billion for Others' Greed

Obama will unveil his Homeowner Stability Initiative at noon today. And it will cost you. Apparently the plan has grown from the previously expected $50 billion to $75 billion now. The focus will be aiding house flippers... er, homeowners, who "owe more on their mortgages than their homes are currently worth, and borrowers on the verge of foreclosure." Heaven forbid they should be in foreclosure on their 4th spec home in Lake Tahoe. Good thing Obama realizes the insanity of this plan: "All of us are paying a price for this home mortgage crisis."
Another key component: a new program aimed at helping homeowners said to be "under water" — with dwellings whose value have sunk below the principal still owing on their mortgages. Such mortgages have traditionally been almost impossible to refinance. But the White House said its program will help 4 to 5 million families do just that.

We have discussed previously why the idea of subsidizing mortgages is flawed from the very beginning. How about this novel idea: kick them out on the street and have them rent at a price they can afford. Will do miracles for real home values and will also drop rents to affordable levels all across the country. Is Mark Haines the only person really outraged by this "plan" and when will outraged Americans finally take to the streets? After all this is everyone's money being flushed down the drain. Sphere: Related Content

Experimenting With Live Forums

As you can see on the right side of the blog, assuming it doesn't crash your website, there is a live forum feature where going forward readers will be able to ask questions, express opinions, blow things up, vent or just say hi. Hopefully it works out... More of a beta idea for now. If readers enjoy it, it will be a regular feature Sphere: Related Content

Biggest Prior Day CDS Movers

Japanese corporate CDS forming a line at the woodshed. G7 risk bloodbath continues

Sphere: Related Content