The entire airline space today was getting whacked in early trading. Delta was down over 10%, United was down roughly 9%, and American was down over 20% after the last two announced weak earnings with the major culprits given were a sharp drop in capacity and load factors on the revenue side, and bad fuel hedging on the cost side. American is being punished the most as it noted it still has 45% of its Q1 fuel hedged at $2.58/gallon or $108/barrel. United on the other hand stated that it's mark-to-market loss on fuel hedges gone wrong is $566 million, and that its hedging counterparties held $965 million in cash deposits.
Tomorrow we will see how the two biggest hedgers in the space, Southwest and JetBlue, performed in the fourth quarter, when they both announce results before market, and both have a conference call at 11:30 am. As we noted previously, we are concerned mostly about Southwest which we think may be punished for their prior significant hedging position.
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Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Hedge Fund Investors Miraculously Pull Out $152 Billion Despite Gates in Q4
Posted by
Tyler Durden
at
11:18 AM
Bloomberg is reporting that last quarter investors withdrew $152 billion from hedge funds. While i have read about 10 different version of this number (anywhere from $100 to $300 billion) this is amazing considering that virtually every hedge funds has gated redemptions. One can only imagine how many times bigger this number would have been if hedge fund managers did the honorable thing and actually gave investors full access to their funds.
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Apple Facing SEC Review Over Jobs Health Disclosures
Posted by
Tyler Durden
at
10:53 AM
Looks like Mary Schapiro is eager to do something on her first day in office. Instead of focusing on the $1 trillion asset bubble and the thousands of scammers and ponziers, she has decided to go thru Steve Jobs' dumpster and check for old syringes and pill bottles. Enough already - give the man some peace. If as an AAPL investor you did not notice Jobs' loss of over 50 pounds in a year and did not make your own decisions about his "key man" status at the company, then it is your fault if you bought at $180. Everyone knew that there could be something wrong with Steve: it is not Apple's fiduciary obligation to report on his health. Are there no more pressing issues for the SEC to be focusing on goddammit?
In other news: Tim Geithner has been carefully watching and learning from Tim Roth's brilliant insights NBC's new series Lie to Me. Sphere: Related Content
In other news: Tim Geithner has been carefully watching and learning from Tim Roth's brilliant insights NBC's new series Lie to Me. Sphere: Related Content
Perry Capital Was in Volkswagen Short Bandwagon; Now is in Corporate Credit Bandwagon
Posted by
Tyler Durden
at
10:10 AM
In his 2008 self evaluation letter, Richard Perry notes all the mistakes that the markets did last year in not agreeing with his assessment of what sound investments are. Notable among them is the short squeeze in Volkswagen shares, which the 1 Sutton Place resident attributes as the main cause to his -26.8% performance in 2008. As every single hedge fund and their grandmother was in this trade, it is good to see that contrarianism is not one of the reasons Perry notes for his downfall.
In terms of current investments, the fund has invested 29% of the Perry money in credit: 78% of this is in stressed credit at 50% of par, and the balance is in mortgage credit also at 50% of par... "There is ample room for price appreciation on the credit investments" is the justification given... Well seeing how every other hedge fund is in this trade again, there is ample room for depreciation as well, we would add. And, also, Mr. Perry "investing prematurely on an unhedged basis" is not why you pocket 2/20... Just saying Sphere: Related Content
In terms of current investments, the fund has invested 29% of the Perry money in credit: 78% of this is in stressed credit at 50% of par, and the balance is in mortgage credit also at 50% of par... "There is ample room for price appreciation on the credit investments" is the justification given... Well seeing how every other hedge fund is in this trade again, there is ample room for depreciation as well, we would add. And, also, Mr. Perry "investing prematurely on an unhedged basis" is not why you pocket 2/20... Just saying Sphere: Related Content
China GDP Number out Late Today
Posted by
Tyler Durden
at
9:53 AM
At 9PM Eastern, the Chinese will announce their Q4 annualized GDP YoY change number. The consensus is 6.8% according to Bloomberg. This is a drop from 9% as of the prior reading. As Paul Kedrosky observes, the likelihood for a (much) lower number should not be excluded... 0% China GDP growth was presented as one of the major fat tail events of 2009 which in the current market environment means it is an almost virtual certainty.
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Irish Billionaire Next Victim of Financial Meltdown
Posted by
Tyler Durden
at
9:44 AM
The man who had lent Bill Clinton his chopper, was found dead on Monday in an apparent suicide. Patrick Rocca, 41, died from a single gunshot to his head in his home in Holmeleigh, an exclusive residential enclave on the edge of Dublin's Castleknock Golf and Country Club. Apparently Rocca lost millions when Irish banks, specifically Anglo Irish, were nationalized and their equity value was destroyed. Patrick had $20 million in personal loans tied to Anglo Irish. He leaves behind a wife and three children...
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Media Popularity Rater Nielsen Coming to a Vicious HY Market with Bond Offering
Posted by
Tyler Durden
at
9:36 AM
The expectation is that Nielsen Co. (Caa1/CCC+) will be coming to market momentarily to take advantage of "demand" for junk debt. Apparently the issue will be $300 million maturing in 5 years. We say the OID will be 25 points and we also take the under.
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GM Beginning To Share Erin Burnett's Outlook on Life
Posted by
Tyler Durden
at
9:25 AM
9:21 *GM SAYS JANUARY U.S. SALES RATE MAY BE BELOW 10 MILLION
So you are saying 10.5 million was optimistic huh Sphere: Related Content
So you are saying 10.5 million was optimistic huh Sphere: Related Content
January 21 Early Headlines
Posted by
Tyler Durden
at
9:10 AM
- Citigroup and Bank of America "surge more than 4 percent" (Bloomberg)
- Foreigners buying up newspapers: first Slim-NYT, now Lebedev-Evening Standard (Moscow Times)
- Fiat catches Chrysler virus, drops to 24-year low (Bloomberg)
- American Airlines posts $69 million loss (USAToday)
- PIMCO done negotiating; drops out of GM bondholder group (Bloomberg)
- CDS report: recession fears put credit markets on edge (FT Alphaville)
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Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Hedge Fund Secondary Market Update
Posted by
Tyler Durden
at
11:01 PM
Today's vomitfest in the markets apparently was greeted by holders of HF LP interests with a sense of utmost urgency/capitulation. In a nutshell - not a single bid, and over $150 million in ask interest just on Feb. 21. Among the more notable parties on the selling block:
SAC Multi Strat - $15 mm
Eton Park - $7 mm
Atticus - $20 mm
Pershing Square - $20 mm
Conatus - $20 mm
Wexford (Spectrum and Catalyst) - $30 mm
If anyone has color as to where these clear we would be very interested. Sphere: Related Content
SAC Multi Strat - $15 mm
Eton Park - $7 mm
Atticus - $20 mm
Pershing Square - $20 mm
Conatus - $20 mm
Wexford (Spectrum and Catalyst) - $30 mm
If anyone has color as to where these clear we would be very interested. Sphere: Related Content
Breaking News: SEC's Cox Has Pulled Out; Mary "Kappa Beta Phi" Schapiro Stepping In
Posted by
Tyler Durden
at
9:01 PM
Chris Cox has said enough and resigned today at noon. After single-handedly destroying the primary U.S. regulator Cox took the back door. His replacement is Kappa Beta Phi sister Mary Schapiro who ran FINRA - the second most ineffectual regulator in the U.S.
Well, Mary, after Cox's stellar performance, it should not be tough to improve on expectations that are really low, kinda like Obama and all.
As your first order of business we recommend you enforce that most memorable of decisions, the shorting ban. It is sure to stabilize the markets and get us to UBS's (the manic half) 2009 S&P target. Sphere: Related Content
Well, Mary, after Cox's stellar performance, it should not be tough to improve on expectations that are really low, kinda like Obama and all.
As your first order of business we recommend you enforce that most memorable of decisions, the shorting ban. It is sure to stabilize the markets and get us to UBS's (the manic half) 2009 S&P target. Sphere: Related Content
General Motors Blames Worsening Global Economy for Not Knowing How to Work Excel
Posted by
Tyler Durden
at
8:50 PM
These headlines just hit. Let me paraphrase: "We are f@*&#d. Send guns, ammo and lawyers." Oh, and GM needs to take down breakeven level for future. Hey Bob Lutz, good work reading our suggestions. Curious just how many times the new "conservative" plan will have to be reworked.*GM REPEATS BREAK-EVEN PLAN PRESENTED DEC. 2 UNDER REVIEW
*GM COO FRITZ HENDERSON MADE COMMENTS TO REPORTERS
*GM SAYS INDUSTRY SALES 'WEAK' AS FLEET SALES SLOWER
*GM SAYS JANUARY US SALES A LOT LIKE DECEMBER SO FAR
*GM SAYS WORSENING GLOBAL ECONOMY IS CAUSING CHANGES
*GM SAYS IT MUST TAKE DOWN BREAKEVEN LEVEL FOR FUTURE
*GM COO FRITZ HENDERSON COMMENTS IN CONFERENCE SPEECH
*GM'S HENDERSON SAYS GM HAS ADOPTED `CONSERVATIVE' PLAN
*GM SAYS IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHEN ECONOMY WILL RECOVER
*GM SAYS IT'S NOT YET CLEAR IF FISCAL STIMULUS WILL WORK
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Leverage Behemoth Freescale Downgraded, Bonds Pounded
Posted by
Tyler Durden
at
8:28 PM
S&P, which lately seems to be paying its credit "analysts" at a rate of $1/word and has imposed a minimum quota of 10 downgrades a week, whacked LBO titan Freescale late on Friday with a downgrade of its corporate rating from B+ to B-, its secured loans from BB to B- and bonds from B- to CCC. In a sleuthing masterpiece report that would make Inspector Clouseau proud, S&P said it "expects Freescale's near- to intermediate-term operating prospects and related credit measures will be adversely impacted by the current economic environment" and that its "concentration in the automotive sector will result in sharply lower revenue in 2009 and possibly in 2010 and that lower revenue will hurt gross profit margins".As the company stopped keeping track of its leverage after it reached about 10x EBITDA, bondholders can not be seriously hoping for much of a recovery, but even so the company's debt couldn't find a nickel bid in a market dominated by sellers. Benchmark 8.875% due 12/14 traded down to 28 from a level in the mid 40s last week. Adding insult to mark-to-market injury was the TL, which traded down from the low 60s to 55. CDS did as expected and widened to the basis equivalent of roughly 3300bps. All is good, however, for its PE sponsor club of Blackstone, Carlyle, TPG and Permira - according to sources their equity investment is still marked at par here and there. Sphere: Related Content
Tuesday Night Ponzi: Forte Capital
Posted by
Tyler Durden
at
5:46 PM
Florida, Indiana, Georgia, even Idaho, ponzis seem to pop up in the strangest of places. Next up: Philadelphia, where Joseph Forte, 53, was charged by U.S. prosecutors with mail fraud allegations that he ran a $50 million Ponzi that bilked charity, church and private school investors. Forte apparently ripped off 80 investors between February 1995 and 2008. Forte "made" its money trading S&P 500 stock index futures. Oh come on, no hedge fund in modern history has made a penny trading that stuff. But apparently Forte told the prosecutors that he "falsely reported investment returns of up to 38% when in fact he regularly lost money in his futurea trading." Forte had told investors his fund had a value of more than $154 million when the trading account was worth less than $146,814 but at least he paid himself million of dollars in salaries and fees.We are curious where the hell are the auditors who go through the books of all these Ponzi schemes? Was Arthur Anderson auditing this guy?
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ETF Pick of The Day: TBT
Posted by
Tyler Durden
at
5:26 PM
Thank you Fast Money for pushing our other ETF pick and holding - double negative on treasuries but no negative carry: you get a dividend if you care about that kind of stuff. Cheap entry point at $40.33, with historical average $61.03. Thesis: the sell off in treasuries once people go back to risky assets, or once everyone stops buying them. China, Russia, Japan and Europe will have massive internal budget deficits to fund to care about buying treasuries, and the US can only print so much money to buy its own paper. Plus yields on Treasuries can only go to 0, which is pretty much where they are now.
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Sphere: Related Content
Vik Bandit To Present In Public New Version of His Resume on January 27
Posted by
Tyler Durden
at
5:07 PM
Or, if not that, then something else. Citi has announced Vik will present at Citi's 2009 Financial Services Conference in NY on January 27 at 12.45pm... If anyone cares they can listen to webcast here: http://www.citigroup.com/citigroup/fin
Sphere: Related Content
Intel CEO Tells Employees To Brace for Streamlining
Posted by
Tyler Durden
at
5:03 PM
INTEL MAY HAVE LOSS IN FIRST QUARTER, CEO TELLS EMPLOYEES
probably big news. market will be too busy selling stuff to care ah rekkun Sphere: Related Content
probably big news. market will be too busy selling stuff to care ah rekkun Sphere: Related Content
Paging Chris Cox - We Need To Eradicate All Short Sellers Again
Posted by
Tyler Durden
at
4:52 PM
We have not seen this level of unpatriotic shorting since last September...
What are our options? Keep in mind this critical decision has to be made in less than 15 minutes to pass senate muster.
a) Short selling ban part deux
b) Throw all hedge fund managers in the tower of London
c) Keep Obama inaugural address on constant loop on every major TV channel, especially the part about how we get better
d) Invade Canada
e) All of the above Sphere: Related Content
What are our options? Keep in mind this critical decision has to be made in less than 15 minutes to pass senate muster.
a) Short selling ban part deux
b) Throw all hedge fund managers in the tower of London
c) Keep Obama inaugural address on constant loop on every major TV channel, especially the part about how we get better
d) Invade Canada
e) All of the above Sphere: Related Content
MGM Selling Mirage to Penn National Redux
Posted by
Tyler Durden
at
4:23 PM
Debtwire's secret spies reiterate the rumor we initially picked up almost two weeks ago.The deal makes sense from the point of view that without it, MGM is stuck with an unfinanceable mega project in the form of CityCenter which today probably lost its top potential customer.
- UPDATE: Situation is fluid... there may not have been a new announcement from debtwire... we still believe the nonagenerian should part ways with the casino Tom Jones calls home. Sphere: Related Content
Market in Full Meltdown Mode; IBM Has Head in Sand
Posted by
Tyler Durden
at
4:11 PM
Financials all over the world received the Friend-O treatment today....repeatedly. XLF financial index hits all time low.IBM which announced better than expected results after the close, says "confident about 2009", and gives 2009 EPS guidance of $9.20 above consensus $8.75... good luck with that guys.
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