Phrase Of The Day: Last Nail In The Coffin Of ... a) US Autos; b) Ken Lewis

S&P is out with a report which basically says car scrappage will be the new black... At least for autos. From a report just released, S&P sees a 13.6 million SAAR... in 2011!

Global Downturn In Auto And Truck Industries To Continue Through 2009, Reports Say

NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) April 23, 2009--The economic outlook for the makers, parts suppliers, sellers, and financiers of cars will remain bleak at least until 2010, according to Standard & Poor's Ratings Services in a series of reports published this week on RatingsDirect.

"We expect only a slow recovery in light-vehicle sales, to 11.2 million units in 2010 and 13.6 million in 2011," said David Wyss, Chief Economist at Standard & Poor's, in "Why A U.S. Auto Recovery Will Be Stuck In The Slow Lane," published April 20, 2009. "After car sales plunged last year, we expect only 9.7 million units to be sold this year," he continued.

In addition, our recovery estimates of how much we think lenders could recover in the event of a default or bankruptcy are lower for companies in this sector than those for the U.S. corporate sector as a whole, according to "What Recovery Ratings Are Saying About The U.S. Auto Sector," also published yesterday.

The articles are part of a special report on the worldwide auto and truck maker industries on RatingsDirect, and they will appear in the April 29 issue of CreditWeek, Standard & Poor's weekly magazine. In the special report, Standard & Poor's analysts in the U.S., Europe, and Asia discuss the key challenges facing the global car, truck, and related industries.

The other coffin nail is Cuomo's letter, at least as it pertains to Ken Lewis' career. The Deal, referencing major shareholders, says that this is the end for the beleaguered CEO. Jonathan Finger, whom we mentioned before, tells The Deal:

"Seems like Ken Lewis has changed his story. Previously Mr. Lewis has stated unambiguously that Bank of America was not aware of the losses at Merrill Lynch until after the Dec. 5 shareholder vote. Now he states differently. I think this will certainly strengthen our lawsuit."

Not a good day to be Bernanke, Lewis or a Pontiac Aztek. Of course, the market seems to have effectively digested the upcoming resignation of the Federal Chairman and is looking greedily to monetizing the 2011 13.6 million auto SAAR. Sphere: Related Content

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GM Considering Bankruptcy

The WSJ is out with a muchly regurgitated piece, which may, however, finally end up being right. Turns out the negotiations between bondholders, the company and the intractable UAW are going nowhere in a hurry, and as the company has a February 17 deadline to report on its progress (of which there has been none), it may finally be time to pull the plug. GM's options are asking the administration for more money, which at this point has a one in a million chance of being granted (so I'm saying there's a chance), or filing bankruptcy. The latter should have been the course the company was forced to embark on long ago, as it is the only truly viable long-term option. Hopefully it also takes Chrysler with it.

"One plan includes a Chapter 11 filing that would assemble all of GM's viable assets, including some U.S. brands and international operations, into a new company. The undesirable assets would be liquidated or sold under protection of a bankruptcy court. Contracts with bondholders, unions, dealers and suppliers would also be reworked."

As GM has already hired both financial and legal counsel to advise it in a bankruptcy, Bob Lutz recently called it a day, and the car czar never made his stage appearance, we think this may actually happen and that pretty soon. Sphere: Related Content

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