Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Broken Market

April 14th SPY close $84.35; VWAP close: $84.77



April 15th SPY close$85.25; VWAP close: $84.41, lower than prior close.
Note the massive buying spree above $85.20, amounting to 24 million shares, a tenth of the total VWAP volume of 241 million shares.



Looking forward to news out of quant land over the next few days with intense interest.
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39 comments:

Anonymous said...

and by noting the discrepancy, what are you suggesting exactly? that they are artificially keeping the price of the SPY down?

Jonah said...

I have to agree, I've been trading for more years than I care to remember and the action of the last two weeks has been as strange as I've ever seen it and increasingly "artificial". I suspect there is something going on behind the scenes and that perhaps Friday's expiration will reveal something of the hand being played...

Anonymous said...

Hank Williams Jr. Can’t Reload in Ammunition Shortage
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=axeZXGgWdAWM

Gold, Guns, and Groceries baby.

Anonymous said...

To be real honest, I'm short like crazy. Looking for Sunday night fireworks like Marty promised.

Anonymous said...

If the market turns like Marty says, I will start a new religion in his name.

Anonymous said...

who is Marty please?

Anonymous said...

martin armstrong, april 23

Matthew C. said...

Yes, the market action the last 2-3 weeks has been incredibly weird. There's some crazy big-block buying going on every time the market gets weak. . .

Anonymous said...

The date is April 19th....

Rob said...

I think Armstrongs "turn date" is April 19th (or 20th depending on how you count your calendar year).

We'll see.

Anonymous said...

tyler, a better way to look at it intraday is "SPY index IGPV go

You can then compare volume spikes throughout the day. There is a giant one at the end of today's session. your post is just looking at volume spikes by price.

Anonymous said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=SPY%3AUS

Anonymous said...

not that this has any bearing on the quality of Martin's thinking but he does speak from a unique circumstance:

http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/a/martin_a_armstrong/index.html

Anonymous said...

I enjoy your blog, but your bearish view has caused readers (if they followed you) to miss the greatest 5 weeks since 1933.

This is an educational blog but does not make people money.

Anonymous said...

if you want to "make money" off a blog stick to seeking alpha. it is full of clueless permabulls. if you want to learn the facts stick with ZH and Calc Risk

Anonymous said...

@ 5:28 PM

Not his original model. The 19th date is a revision. So I have some wiggle room factored in.

Anonymous said...

The commenter does have a point tough. "Dont fight the tape" is an age old phrase and it makes a LOT of sense. Look you can be bearish just dont let it overwhelm all thinking.

Anonymous said...

Folks here are trying to make a hill out of a mole. The fact of the matter is that the market is going up and yet everyone has an embedded opinion that the market should be going down.

Sure this could be a bear market rally, but there is no reason to play it accordingly. There are several ways to skin this cat, but to sit here and call the market "insane" is definetely not the way to make money.

That's why there are bloggers and there are professional traders. This blog is very informative and one of my favorite ones, but I would not go beyond that.

Eric said...

You can be bearish? Pray tell can someone give me a reason to be bullish?

The world is hopelessly insolvent. There are 6k homes in my county in the process of foreclosure. It encompasses a mid size city.

I don't know about you but everywhere I turn I see horrendous fundamentals. So, the fact that spz have rallied means jack. I could wake up one day to reality and they have fallen 100 handles because Japan has decided do print a quadrillion Yen if the YEN doesn't fall 40% against the US Peso.

As Tyler's quant example stated...if u are smart u are either in cash or losing money.

In Debt We Trust said...

PPT. PPT. PPT.

Anonymous said...

maybe zh should just write, the market is going up, because it's going up...i suppose that'll make some of you happy

Matthew C. said...

Hey, I'm bearish as all get-out (to S&P 300ish) but I've been making nice money daytrading this ludicrous, absurd rally.

Matthew C. said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
tippi canoe said...

perhaps the real purpose of ZH is not to make $ (or lose it) but to reveal how $ is being made.

~~~~~

btw, muchas gracias whoever linked the new marty missive last night.

the cover drawing itself is fantastico!

clicky on tippi to go behind the curtain

Anonymous said...

If the bloggers were 1/10 as smart as they think they are they;d have at least 10X the money they have.

That's a 100x underperformance.

Bears got full of themselves when it was easy. Notice none of them tell you how much this fake rally is costing them.

watch out this weekend said...

and for those holding their breath for marty's magic day:

"Armstrong once advised Canadian technical analyst Ross Clark that markets which were trending the strongest going into a cyclic turn point would be the most likely to reverse. "It is the concentration of capital that creates booms and the subsequent busts.""

"I should stress this is only a secondary turn date. There are plenty of examples in the past where nothing of any significance has happened at these junctures. In other words, they do not always work."

Anonymous said...

I hasten to add, as some have suggested, that bloggertainment is not the same as money making advice.

In fact, it may well be to opposite. Those that know, trade, and tell you about it in their memoirs, not realtime.

Anonymous said...

cetin, is that you? did they finally kick you out of seeking alpha for failing the minimal IQ test so you have decided to troll tyler's website directly? you are a piece of work

bullish bear, bearish bull said...

me up 21.3695% from 2/17-4/15.
SPY up 7.6112% in same period.

shapeshifting's fun.

Anonymous said...

TD, i have been silent so far, but could you please move the comments section to a platform that will allow me to ignore/block people? this is worse than yahoo message boards thanks to one/two morons.

Anonymous said...

I'm with you "watch out this weekend".

It's going to be a non-event as we soar up to 950-975. There is a total lack of liquidity on the short side. We need more bears!

The rocketship needs fuel.

If the market was full of bulls(everyone buying, no one selling) we wouldn't go anywhere, right?

Anonymous said...

"If the market was full of bulls(everyone buying, no one selling) we wouldn't go anywhere, right?"

According to the basic supply/demand curve, we would go to the moon actually.

poolparty said...

oversold

Anonymous said...

@7:57 PM
Strictly speaking, when no one is selling there is nothing to buy...

poolparty said...

overbought! i meant overbought. i'm tweaking on coffee.

inthemoney said...

Wasn't today 401K investment day? That would explain the pop at the end of the day.

Anonymous said...

Wait until the Obamatick rule is implemented. This is nothing.

The goal is to finance the recovery on the backs of every short seller by simultaneously ramping all trading vehicles.

Futures up even more as we speak.

Anonymous said...

3pm beige book

cnbc hyping it

Anonymous said...

Actually Marty could be following the very dead William Gann...who points out April 20-25 is a time for a change of trend.