Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Expected Market Sector Growth Rates

With almost half the S&P having reported their earnings, we know all too well how bleak the employment picture is with a daily barrage of "streamlining" bullet points in each company's earnings press release. Another interesting factoid is to compare the estimated earnings growth rates of different companies by sector, whether based on company guidance or consensus estimates. What is surprising is the nearly 80% drop in the estimated growth rate for the S&P500 from only 3 months ago. One can accuse sell side analysts (and management teams goaded by ebullient PR firms) of many things, but being realistic is probably not one of them.

On the next graph the relative growth rate estimates for the market by sector are shown. All those people saying the bottom in financials is here and today is the last day to buy at bargain prices, we suggest you take a look at the far right column.

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5 comments:

ngogerty said...

do you have some sources on where that puts next years S&P 500 earnings estimate. I would like to update the PHaT graph. www.gogerty.com

Anonymous said...

Actually, if you turn your monitor upside down, the future doesn't look so bad................

Tyler Durden said...

depends who you talk to. for some amusing data points check out my post on UBS' 2009 S&P projections. I think the realistic consensus is around 45-53. I think GS and MS (well, last one not so much anymore) have best analysts.

phonon said...

I think you meant "factoid" not "factotum", which has an entirely different meaning. Love the blog though!

Tyler Durden said...

good point thx