Wednesday, January 28, 2009

New York Times To Cease Providing Monthly Revenue Updates

In a quest to "improve" transparency into its business, the New York Times will cease providing monthly sales updates beginning this month, and only give clarity on a quarterly basis said the CEO on a phone call this morning... Next quarter we assume this practice will be adjusted to providing any sorts of updates to once a decade.

Also, in much more troubling news, NYT announced its pension is currently underfunded by $625 million. We hope Andrew Ross Sorkin has been saving up. The silver lining, Capex will drop in 2009... I guess the plan for another exoskeletal skyscraping monstrosity on top of Port Authority will be put in hold for now.
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All Business Trips Cancelled for Merrill Brokers

We wrote about what we think the implications for the private jetting industry would be after Falcon-gate, but did not expect this. The Post reports that Bank of Countrywide Lynch has banned all broker trips after an internal unit-wide television broadcast by Dan Sontag, the new head of Merrill's brokerage unit. The ban is expected to last through 2009. While star brokers didn't shed too many tears after all rookie brokers (who make 1/2 to 2/3 of what Thain's carpet cost) were recently let go, the news that all trips will have to commence at Port Authority is the final straw and will likely cause all brokers to depart for the greener pastures of... um... maybe they will just stay put. Sphere: Related Content

Jefferies Tries to Rebuild Its Restructuring Group

Jefferies, the self proclaimed "largest investment bank left out there" today announced that it has hired 2 managing directors to replace the massive defections in its restructuring group, which for all intents and purposes, picked up and left to join Moelis & Co. The new additions are Hal Kennedy who was previously at Credit Suisse, and Leon Szlezinger who worked at Mesirow previously and was listed in Bankruptcy Insider as a top creditor advisor, and in Turnaround & Workouts' People to Watch 2007: Hot! Sphere: Related Content

New Issuance Fever Hits Market

The primary debt market has taken advantage of people throwing money into the TARP pit, with two high yield energy companies on deck to raise capital over the next few hours (or as long as there is an uptick to the market): Chesapeake, in the form of $500 million 6 year notes, and Inergy, raising $200 million 6 year notes, both to refinance existing debt. As mattress are overflowing with worthless pieces of paper, it is likely that both these issues will be quickly digested by the market... The desire to price these asap makes sense due to the high likelihood that tomorrow the market will crash and burn based on recently trading patterns (ed. this is not a recommendation to buy SPUs) Sphere: Related Content

No Tax Refund for Californians, Now Official

In what is likely the last step before officially declaring insolvency, California has halted the processing of state tax refunds. Per California State Controller John Chiang's office, "Unfortunately, we have asked the California Franchise Tax Board not to send over tax refund claims beginning today because we will not be able to process them and have them out the door by Feb. 1 when a 30-day delay in tax refunds goes into effect." Can taxpayers ask the IRS not to have to pay taxes?

2.74 million individuals and businesses will have a tax refund delayed and the delay in their processing should free up $1.99 billion over the next month to pay for "education, debt service, and other payments that legally have first claims to state funds." As this money is essentially a debt to its residents, some could interpret this action as a forced 30 day grace period before Cali has to retain Lazard and some overpaid bankruptcy lawyers. Sphere: Related Content

Major CDS Last Day Movers


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Breaking News: IMF Estimates Toxic Asset Losses To Raise By $800 Billion to $2.2 Trillion

*IMF SAYS U.S. ECONOMY TO SHRINK 1.6%, EURO AREA DOWN 2% IN '09
*IMF RAISES ESTIMATE OF BANK LOSSES FROM $1.4 TRILLION IN OCT.
*IMF: GLOBAL GROWTH TO BE 0.5% IN '09 VS 2.2% PRIOR ESTIMATE
*IMF SEES LOSSES FROM TOXIC U.S. ASSETS TOTALING $2.2 TRILLION Sphere: Related Content

Porsche About to Get Gestapo-Lite Treatment

After costing most US hedge funds huge losses last year and Adolf Merkle his life, German prosecutors have finally opened an investigation into activities by "responsible people" at Porsche that have led to trading manipulations in VOW shares. The German regulators, who based on their speed and efficiency one would assume were the Berlin branch of the SEC, said “we have to open a file if we get such a complaint, but we will take further action only if BaFin’s findings indicate any wrongdoing may have taken place.”

So Perry and Greenlight don't hold your breath you will be recouping those crazy stop losses any time soon.
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NYT Hired Goldman To Sell Red Sox Stake, Posts Horrendous Revenues

The distressed semi-Mexican company announced today it has hired Goldman Sachs to sell its 17.75% stake in New England Sports Ventures, which owns the Boston Red Sox, Fenway Park, 80% of New England Sports Network, and 50% of a Nascar Team. Guess that sale leaseback must not be going all that well.

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In other news NYT posted December revenues which were, well, ugly

Ad revenues:
National media: -13.7%
Retail media: -13.3%
Classified media: -28.7%
Other ad revenue: -12.3%

About Group: -13.2%

Total Ad revenues: -15.7% Sphere: Related Content

More on Wall Street Bonuses

New York State has presented this chart to highlight the massacre that was also known as bonus season. Silver lining (not for NY) - banks wont have to pay taxes "for years to come" due to $31.4 billion in tax credits.





Some other points from the report:
  • The average bonus declined by 36.7 percent to $112,000 in 2008. The decline in the average bonus was smaller than the decline in the bonus pool because the pool was shared among fewer workers as the industry shed jobs.
  • The reduction in Wall Street bonuses will cost nearly $1 billion in personal income tax revenues for New York State and another $275 million for New York City. Before the start of the financial crisis, business and personal income tax collections from Wall Street activities accounted for up to 20 percent of State tax revenues and 12 percent of City tax revenues.
  • Employment in the securities industry in New York City declined from 187,800 in October 2007 to 168,600 in December 2008, a loss of 19,200 jobs, or 10.2 percent.
  • At the beginning of 2008, there were seven major financial firms headquartered in New York City. Since then, two have been acquired, one failed, and two converted into commercial banks.
  • A review of the 2008 year-end statements of the major financial firms headquartered in New York City (the Merrill Lynch acquisition was completed in 2009) showed a tax credit of $31.3 billion for 2008, which will reduce the firms’ future tax payments for years to come.
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Early Headlines Jan 28

  • Schwarzman can't wait to burn through more money (Bloomberg)
  • Bill Miller in urgent need of an appointment with Ari Kiev (Bloomberg)
  • Crisis could cost 50 million jobs (FT)
  • CDS trading volume in the Japanese market strangely absent (FT Alphaville)
  • All you need to know about today's Davos proceedings (FT)
  • NY State Comptroller says Wall Street bonuses plunged 44% in 2008, Industry losses to top $35 billion (NYS)
  • Rumor of the day: Wal Mart buying German Arcandor
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Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Late Tuesday Headlines

  • Exxon cut to Neutral from Buy at UBS
  • 78,000 fired today (NY Post)
  • Thain called to testify on Merrill bonuses, hires spin doctors (FT, NY Post)
  • Putin to seek new economic order at Davos (Moscow Times)
  • Most Wall Street workers unhappy with their bonuses (Bloomberg)
  • Will CDS spreads tumble in February? (FT Alphaville)
  • AIG has given 400 derivative traders $1.1 million average retention guarantee (Bloomberg)
  • Dov Charney's American Apparel in whole new batch of trouble (NY Post)
  • Petrobras will not issue debt this year, market too expensive (Bloomberg)
  • All about the golddiggers' neo-forum (NY Times)
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SAC Loses Chief Psychiatrist, Underwater Portfolio Managers Elsewhere Gain Peace and Serenity

If you have ever wondered how one can feel calm, relaxed and empowered after blowing a cool $100 mill on the basis trade that the Merrill salesguy was pitching incessantly as totally risk-free, after ingesting an elephant dose of estrogen in an office with the climatic characteristics of Vladivostok, then wonder no more, for a wealth of information, outsider and vice versa, and a comfy leather coach are about to be fully accessible to you. Ari Kiev, M.D., the inhouse "psychiatrist to the hedge fund stars" has launched a new consulting firm, Kiev Consulting, which will specialize in "peak performance coaching for hedge funds and institutional investors and traders."

After having spent nearly a decade working with none other than Blue Eyes himself, it strikes us as odd that the two have opted for this "amicable" split: after all where will Stevie's legions of permaprofitable PMs get their peak performance coaching and such words of wisdom like "To cope with a shrinking portfolio, we suggest that you set spending priorities, tune out the noise and keep your cool." (for many more pearls of PM pep talk we suggest perusing Dr. Kiev's own blog.)

Either way, Stevie's loss is our gain (and Ari's windfall), as portfolio managers are desperate now more than ever for an attentive ear (as their golddigger wives have long since left them with only a divorce lawyer invoice and a huge Centurion bill) to which they can whisper all the details of their counterparty risk having gone up 10 times or triggering every stop loss as Volkswagen hit €1000. In Ari's own words "this consulting practice effectively allows me to broaden my reach and offer customized services to an increasing number of fund managers who are recognizing the importance of a psychological perspective in managing investments. Given the stress of today's market and the challenges faced by professional investors, I felt the time was ripe for expanding my consultation work."

Kiev has said his counsel will encompass dealing with the stress of drawdowns, the behavioral dimension of risk management, psychological screening of analysts and portfolio managers, and creative approaches to building cultures of collaboration, this time presumably not based on unknowingly sipping clinical doses of progesterone with your morning coffee.

Some more phenomenal insight from the doctor himself on what makes the perfect specimen of uber-profitable manager: "I think the best guys are really very skillful in avoiding drawdown; the best guys are good at getting out of losers; the best guys are good at pressing the bet when they see the opportunity. They are making the most of their money; they have the eye of the tiger; they have great purpose, great intensity and a willingness to really stick it out..."

With this kind of insight we are confident the good doctor will be earning more than his former boss in no time. Sphere: Related Content

January 26 CDS Major Movers


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Lawyers Paid Better Than Ever as Creditors Lose Shirts

We have written extensively on the subject (here and here), and we feel it is about time mainstream media paid a little more attention to this very troubling issue. In a time of unprecedented losses for most investors, it is counterintuitive that lawyers should be getting paid as much as $1,110/hour, as this new Bloomberg report observes.

Rick Cieri of Kirkland & Ellis is the best paid human being on an hourly basis, charging $1,110 per hour (converted from British pounds) on his Tronox assignment. Incomprehensibly, Skadden Arps has requested as much as $1,050/hour for partners in the Circuit City Liquidation...uh, LIQUIDATION for god's sake... just how much value are these lawyers going to bring?

Stephen Lubben, a professor at Seton Hall University has the right idea “There is a limit to how many attorneys can demand these kinds of hourly rates, so long as the credit markets remain tight and Chapter 11 tends to be little more than a glorified liquidation tool.”

It is only a matter of time before the general public redirects its attention from Vikram's jet and Thain's commode, to this practice, which in our opinion is just as questionable, even more so as it is shrouded in the secrecy of bankruptcy court proceedings, which very few people understand or care about. It is about time they did.
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Breaking News: GE Capital Corp May Be Cut By Moody's, AAA Rating on Downgrade Review

Uh Oh... Splinters forming among the rating agency community (link)

****UPDATE****

GE immediately issues following statement (no, they definitely did not see this coming)

Statement from GE Regarding Moody’s Review

Business Wire

FAIRFIELD, Conn. -- January 27, 2009

Moody’s informed us today it has placed General Electric Company's and General Electric Capital Corporation's (GECC) long-term Aaa ratings on review for possible downgrade. This review does not affect GE’s and GECC’s short-term funding ratings of Prime-1 (P-1), which were affirmed by Moody's. This action is a follow-up to Moody’s December review of GE’s 2009 operating plan. GE has outlined a plan for the year that is based on the difficult global economic environment we see. During the next few months, we will work constructively with Moody’s on its review. Our objective is to maintain our Triple-A rating but we do not anticipate any major operational impacts should that change. We expect to deliver on the 2009 financial framework that we outlined last week.


GE has taken steps to strengthen its liquidity position, including reducing GE Capital Services' commercial paper from $88 billion in 3Q ’08 to $65 billion today. We have raised 64% of our long-term funding for 2009. The company has more than $50 billion in cash on hand. During 2008, GE increased its alternative funding by $25 billion and will continue to grow this funding in 2009 and beyond. Sphere: Related Content

Bridgewater Warns Most Investors "Will Inevitably Do Badly"

In his annual letter to investors, Ray Dalio, whose $80 billion Bridgewater fund is doing phenomenally well, returning almost 9% in 2008, had some advice and warnings to investors. Key among them: to be truly objective when designing a portfolio of investments and to remove any market bias, as strategy optimization without a deep enough understanding of "how it would work in all circumstances, including circumstances that did not occur within the period that's your frame of reference, you will inevitably do badly." In other words, if you don't anticipate everything that could happen when you throw money in the market, you are bound to lose.

Sounds like wise advice.

Bridgewater's Pure Alpha fund, is an actively-managed, signal-translating global fund, that participates in everything from copper, to currency, to treasuries, and has consistently generated significant returns over risk free rates. Sphere: Related Content

Nick Cosmo Had Extensive Mob Connections

Charlie Gasparino just broke the news that most recent ponzmaster Nick Cosmo of the $370 million Agape World ponzi, had extensive mob connections. Turns out Nick had a gambling addiction problem and owed a lot of money to loan sharks working for the Genovese mafia, and allegedly the Gambino family paid off around $139,000 of these debts on Cosmo's behalf. Also, former mob member Mike D'Urso, currently an informant for the government and in the witness protection program, apparently had tried to collect (or "shook") the money from Cosmo on behalf of the Genovese. Sphere: Related Content

Wexford Goes Activist on Energy Partners Ltd

Wexford Capital, a $6 billion hedge fund run by distressed investor Charles Davidson, went activist on Energy Partners Ltd, sending out one of the only activist letters we have seen in months. Wexford, which states it has a large position in EPL's common stock (although not as large as it did last time around, its holdings have dropped from 9.5% to 8.4%) as well as the 9.75% Senior Notes due 2014 and FRNs due 2013, has presented a list of demands. While not as eloquent as Dan Loeb or Bob Chapman at their peaks, the letter wants the company to:
  • Cut the size of its board
  • Restructure the company debt
  • Cut its S,G&A
  • Fire senior management
  • Cancel its change of control severance agreements
And goes on to conclude that EPL's exploration activities have been a failure.

We are confident EPL management will be thrilled to discuss these demands at its earliest convenience. Sphere: Related Content

Wells Fargo Blames High Mortgage Rates on "Soaring" Demand

This bloomberg article has left us a little speechless... First of all, as we point out recently, Wells Fargo has recently been hiking the rates on its 30 year (and other) conforming mortgages. Today, the bank has stated publicly that the slow drop in rates is due to "soaring" demand for mortgages... Seems nothing can stop people from inflating the next bubble as we are still in the old bubble. Curious how many of the people who are among the soaring crowds lining up in front of Wells' mortgage offices already have 2, 3 or more mortgages that are underwater or in foreclosure... No doubt Wells is really very careful this time around when approving new mortgages. Secondly, how can it be difficult to be lowering rates, i.e. be competitive with everyone else who is sub 5% on the 30 year conforming, when you are seeing this "soaring" demand. In a word, we are a little skeptical of this most recent version of media spin Sphere: Related Content