Monday, March 2, 2009

Citi Issues 8K Clarifying Preferred Exchange Terms

Read all about it here. Looks like discount to privates is only 5%

Summary of public preferred terms:



We are perusing the 8K currently.

Seems public preferreds are happy. C AA stock spiking after government announces conversion number of public prefs into common shares will be equal to the privates after all... unless we are reading this totally wrong...

update - odd selloff in preferreds now from highs of $9.75. Nothing to see here...


Sphere: Related Content

Louisiana Pacific CDS Poised To Explode

The troubled company, after posting ghastly numbers on Friday, just announced it is commencing a $350 million debt offering, which will be "issued at a discount to the face amount." The maker of Oriented Strand Board, or the 99 cent store plywood equivalent, is burning cash at an accelerating rate and with new housing starts at record lows, needs to replenish its dwindling cash reserves or become the latest addition to our Death Watch list. One of the main reasons why LPX CDS has traded as tight as it has (14/15 pts upfront) given its gloomy prospects is that there has been only $200 million in deliverable notes in its capital structure (coupled with the misjudged expectation that in a bankruptcy recoveries would be high from asset sales as someone will pay good money for its timber mills). If this bond offering is successful, and that is a big IF, the deliverable against its CDS will more than double to $550 million in total notional debt, which should be sufficient reason for the CDS to skyrocket past historic high levels of 20 some point upfront.

Concurrently with the bond offering, LPX announced it is launching an exchange offer of its existing 200 million of 8.875% "secured" notes, which, if successful, would strip the bonds of virtually all covenants:
The proposed amendments would delete certain restrictive covenants from the indenture governing the Notes that presently restrict the ability of (i) the Company to incur liens and security interests on its properties and assets and to enter into sale and lease-back transactions; (ii) the Company’s unrestricted subsidiaries to become restricted subsidiaries; and (iii) the Company to merge or consolidate with or into any other person or transfer all or substantially all of its assets to any other person unless certain conditions are satisfied.
Seems like things at the Nashville company are getting worse by the day.

****Update****

Joke of the day: S&P rates LPX's new $350 notes BBB-. If that isn't borderline insulting negligence nothing is. Sphere: Related Content

Latest HF Winners And Losers



Paulson keeping it real as usual Sphere: Related Content

Why Citi Will Not Follow In Lehman's Footsteps

Here is something for all those who say we are permadoom sayers... Fresh from gimme credit, and we tend to agree. A full blown implosion of Citi would be the Mutual Assured Destruction to everyone with exposure to Citi, which is... well... everyone, whether it is by 1 or 6 degrees of separation. Betting on Citi's demise is ironically just like buying US Sovereign CDS: you have a high likelihood of being right, but if you are, the money you make (assuming someone honors the contract you are collecting under) will be worth just the paper it is written on.

From GimmeCredit:
Citigroup’s 10-K filing makes it clear why regulators appear committed to (or perhaps are stuck with) a strategy of supporting the full capital structure (including holding company debt), rather than subjecting the bank to the Lehman treatment. Citigroup has a daunting $1.9 trillion of assets on the balance sheet alone (not counting off-balance sheet exposure). The balance sheet is essentially supported by an uneasy alliance between the U.S. government and the company’s depositors and other creditors, since the market value of the equity is so depressed. Deposits totaled $774 billion at year end, including nearly $500 billion outside the U.S. In a liquidation of a U.S. insured depositary institution, the 10-K notes that U.S. deposits would have priority over deposits outside the U.S., as well as over parent company claims. But we can’t imagine the new administration will want to precipitate an international crisis over whose-deposits-get-paid-off-first. There is $360 billion of long-term debt, including about $24 billion of TruPS-related junior subordinated debt and $34 billion of subordinated debt. At year-end, parent company liquidity, including unencumbered cash deposits at the broker-dealer, totaled $67 billion. But no cash hoard would be big enough right now, without the support of Uncle Sam. Investors are worried (with good reason) about the risk for more markdowns of loans, securities and the deferred tax asset ($44.5 billion). Moody’s lowered Citigroup’s senior and subordinated debt ratings last week, but left the short-term rating at P1 (under the assumption that “systemic support” is “most predictable” for short-term debt.) A downgrade in the C.P. rating would trigger an $11 billion funding requirement. As we discussed last week (see report dated 2/24/09), we see value in Citigroup’s senior debt (although the 5.5% notes due 2013 have tightened to T+604 from T+752 a week ago.
Sphere: Related Content

Bill Gross En Route To Becoming 4th Branch of Government

The most flagrant abuser of conflicts of interest in the current economy, PIMCO (relax, relax, we jest), has just gotten its tentacles even more entangled with the rotor of the government's economic shredder. Reuters reports Bill Gross has been hired to advise the U.S. government on the $118 billion of assets guaranteed in the Bank of America bailout. Pimco will be responsible for "evaluating Bank of America's holdings, including securities backed by residential and commercial loans, to help determine the company's losses."

The world's largest bond fund is opportunistically prepared for just these kinds of assignment, by recently raising a $3 billion distressed DISCRETIONARY fund for mortgage-backed security investing. This of course happened after PIMCO was selected for a comparable assignment, where it was picked to advise on $80 billion of credit union deposits. We fully expect Gross in his next monthly letter to announce the creation of a distressed fund investing/shorting Bank of America securities. But, of course, everything in Newport Beach is walled off from everything else. Last time we checked El-Erian was personally putting up chinese walls within the Sharkeez booths in Newport Beach. Sphere: Related Content

Credit Market Update

IG: 229/230
HY11: 70.25/70.50 -1.30
LCDX10: 73.00/73.25 -0.80

Secured and unsecured loan indices trading at identical spreads... no, the market isn't broken at all. Sphere: Related Content

Spansion First Bankruptcy Casualty Today

We were getting a little behind the 1 bankruptcy a day run rate... Undiversified maker of flash memory (of which nowadays you get 16GB for free with every purchase of toilet paper) Spansion late last night deposited its first day motions in the after hours Chapter 11 drop slot in Delaware bankruptcy court. The company's decision "was made in consultation with an ad hoc consortium of holders of Spansion's $625 million Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due 2013."

Alas, the company made the biggest faux pas of any free fall bankruptcy candidate and did not have a DIP in hand at time of filing: good luck getting one now. "The company is in discussion with the ad hoc consortium about providing a debtor-in-possession (DIP) credit facility, while also simultaneously pursuing other options intended to provide the company with additional liquidity for its long-term cash needs." The reason for the delay is because apparently "the company believes that its current and anticipated cash resources will be sufficient to pay its expenses and maintain its business operations while it explores and implements options to address its long-term cash needs." Luckily they did not add that Flash RAM is also "not" a discretionary purchase.

Legal counsel to advise Spansion on the marketability of its "revolutionary" MirrorBit NOR and ORNAND technology is Latham & Watkins. The financial advisor feasting on this new carcass has surprisingly not been named yet. Sphere: Related Content

ISM at 35.8, Better Than Expected

Expectation was 33.8. Based on market response, looks like few care about leading indicators anymore. Sphere: Related Content

Next up: ISM Report

If the most anticipated leading indicator ISM posts a number indicating the decline continues, as Jon Hatzius of Goldman expects, pull all stops. Sphere: Related Content

Berkshire Class B Set To Open Much Lower

BRK/B Indicated $2,200-$2,400 as market is about to open after closing at $2,564 Sphere: Related Content

Financial CDS Liftathon

Most bank names wider by 20-30 bps. Notable movers Bank of Communist America: +30 to 270; Citi: +35 to 430; Merrill: +30 to 375 Sphere: Related Content

Freddie Mac CEO David Moffett Resigns

Talk about the captain staying with the sinking ship.... or not...The man only became CEO a mere 6 months ago. Guess when comp is capped at or around $1 in perpetuity nobody, not even former Carlyle Group senior advisors, have much of an incentive to stay and watch the mushroom cloud.

MCLEAN, Va., March 2 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) today announced that its chief executive officer, David Moffett, has notified the chairman of the board of directors of his resignation from his position as chief executive and as a member of the board effective no later than March 13, 2009. The board of directors is working with the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to appoint a successor to Moffett.

Moffett indicated that he wants to return to a role in the financial services sector. In his letter of resignation, he said, "I have enjoyed my time as CEO of Freddie Mac and I wish all the great employees the very best in the days to come."

It is good that at least one person has enjoyed Moffett's time as CEO of Freddie Mac, even it is him. Some more from the release:

John Koskinen, chairman of the board, said, "We are very sorry to see David go. He made valuable contributions to Freddie Mac as the company transitioned into conservatorship." Koskinen also said, "We expect to name an interim CEO before March 13 to assume David's responsibilities once he leaves." He added, "The board remains fully committed to ensuring the company continues its critical role in supporting the housing finance system during this difficult economic period."

Management continues to estimate that FHFA, in its capacity as conservator of Freddie Mac, will submit a request to Treasury to draw an additional amount of approximately $30 billion to $35 billion under the Senior Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement between Freddie Mac and Treasury, following the timely filing of the company's annual report on Form 10-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Sphere: Related Content

January Savings Rate Skyrockets To 5.0%

Largest since 1995. Set to keep growing. Sphere: Related Content

Front Running: March 2

  • It's official - record book loss of $61.7 billion at AIG (Reuters)
  • The most powerless powerful man on Wall Street (NY Magazine)
  • KKR Private Equity Says Holdings Lost 32% (WSJ)
  • ...Also KKR reevaluating KPE fund takeover (Reuters)
  • Eastern Europe stocks, currencies tumble as EU rejects aid plan (Bloomberg)
  • TPG attempts to provide DIP financing to its own bankrupt Aleris (FT)
  • Porsche's hedge fund gains more than make up for operating losses (Bloomberg)
  • Japan's crisis of the mind (NYT)
  • Edward Altman says on Bloomberg Radio interview that "Citi will survive" (Bloomberg)

Sphere: Related Content

HSBC Shares Suspended In Hong Kong

As DJ50 futures are well into 6 handle territory, more bad news out of Asia: HSBC has been suspended from trading in Hong Kong pending the "announcement of a corporate action." MarketWatch claims the announcement is the revelation of the company's pullback from U.S. consumer lending. As no consumer in the U.S. is borrowing currently, this will likely not be a major financial event. Additionally, the bank which in recent weeks has been rumored to be in major headcutting mode in its U.S. operations, will report earnings later in the day, at which time it is expected to cut its dividend and raise $17 billion in a discounted right-issue. HSBC, which was the first subprime shoe to drop in March of 2007, could not have picked a better day to pursue a rights offering: even with a "deep" discount to Friday's close, the offering may easily come to parity based on today's trading price. Sphere: Related Content

Sunday, March 1, 2009

Late Sunday Thoughts

Tonight's late thoughts are again from the pen of one of our favorites, BTIG strategist Mike O'Rourke. Highly recommended reading.


Sphere: Related Content

Exclusive: The Creeping Equitization Of Citi's Capital Structure

Much has been written about the staggering losses of Saudi Prince Alwaleed Bin-Talal in Citi's common stock. The amount of money he has dropped on Pandit's titanic may have easily funded GM's operations.... for about a day. Now as preferred shareholders have joined the fray of impaired parties, other investor higher in the capital structure are starting to feel Geithner's flamethrower. Enter the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority or ADIA as it is better known. News just out of Reuters that Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund, which just happens to be the largest of its kind in the world, is nervous about its $7.5 billion 11% Citi convertible bond investment. The bonds begin converting in March 2010, and through September 2011, ADIA is set to receive 235.6 million shares, at a conversion price between $31.83 and $37.24. Seeing how Citi's common closed at $1.50, ADIA managing director Sheikh Ahmed bin Zayed al Nahyan must be depressed about his prospects of breaking even on this investments any time soon if ever. Granted, ADIA will likely not lose too much sleep over this loss - the sovereign wealth fund which recently completed and moved into the tallest skyscaper in Abu Dhabi (insert), had about $850 billion in its portfolio. However with oil dropping from $120 to $30, with or without USO's shennanigans, even the real masters of the petrouniverse must be scratching their beards...
"Nothing has changed from ADIA's perspective at this point. ADIA's convertible bonds are due for conversion in a phased manner between March 2010 and September 2011, and that stands," an Abu Dhabi government official told Reuters. "But it is carefully assessing its options due to the latest events -- although no decision is taken yet," he said, declining to be named.
Ironically, instead of waiting to see the notes thru their conversion, the fund may decide to convert early making a potential full-blown nationalization even more politically charged, due to ADIA's extended web of investments in a plethora of U.S. companies and GSEs. The last thing Geithner can afford is to anger such a huge investing partner as ADIA, and by implication it neighboring sovereign wealth funds of countries such as Kuwait, Qatar, Dubai, and Saudi Arabia (for a list of all the major sovereign wealth funds, click here). The real concern should be for other convertible (and potentially higher up in the capital structure securities), who unlike ADIA can ill afford to lose out on their heretofore considered safe investments.
"We know ADIA is following the recent developments closely, but as a bondholder, ADIA's investments are secure because the U.S. government has left bond holders untouched, unlike other investors such as preferred shareholders," a senior Abu Dhabi-based banker close to ADIA said."

However, it is early days, and we need to wait and see what ramifications the latest events would have and whether there would be pressure on investors in bonds to convert (early)," he said.

Citi, he said, has been urging preferred shareholders and convertible bond holders to convert to common stock to help avoid nationalization by the U.S. government.
Indeed, what is becoming more and more obvious, is that while the government is unlikely to wipe out the common stock tranche in Citi and other banks ever (which would be de facto nationalization and by implication a failure of a "too big to fail" bank, which Geithner will simply not allow per Lehman bankruptcy consequences), it will continue a forced creeping dilution of higher and higher tranches of the balance sheet into Citi common stock. Yesterday the preferred, today the convertible stock, tomorrow unsecured and lastly secured bonds. At some point the common may actually be worth something fundamentally, regardless of squeezes and other contraptions. We can only hope that in the process Geithner does not royally anger someone really important along the way as he forces stakeholders to convert into chunks of more and more diluted common stock. The other implication is that holders of higher tranches of Citi securities will follow in the preferred's footsteps and commence shorting against their long holdings in advance expectations of equitization. This further increases the likelihood that every fund and their grandmother will soon be short Citi common, and while a Volkswagen outcome is never a certainty, six sigma events just happen to occur on a daily basis lately. Sphere: Related Content

More Bank Bashing Fodder

When the execs of the biggest banks came to congress two weeks ago to be on the wrong end of some populist lynching, one of the questions asked was how much money had the banks earned by collecting underwriting fees by issuing FDIC-backed bank bonds, i.e. debt in which there is no risk. Intuitively this is a great question, as underwriters collect fees only when there is exposure risk, essentially they are paid to find buyers for a risky issue in which they are the primary purchasers. If there is no implicit risk, as in when they are issuing government backed debt and the bank is merely a pass thru of a government guarantee, it is mindboggling that banks should be compensated for this form of "underwriting."

The FT has done some investigative journalism into this topic. Turns out banks have pocketed nearly $1 billion in underwriting fees from placing government-backed debt. While European banks charge 0.15% on FDIC guaranteed bank bonds, their US counterparts demand twice as much or 0.3%. While at first glance this is a mere fraction of the fees that banks demand to issue Investment Grade and High Yield bonds, at 1% and 3% respectively, the numbers quickly start to add up when one considers the total size of the FDIC backed market. Morgan Stanley estimates that $634 billion worth of new bonds could be sold this year using European government guarantees. The situation in the US is likely comparable, implying over $1 trillion in FDIC debt is poised to come to market. If one assumes a blended 0.2% fee on this new debt, banks are set to pocket over $2 billion in fees for something which one can argue they should receive no fees for whatsoever, for two reasons: i) without these FDIC backed instruments, banks would likely not function at all as they would have no way to access the capital markets by traditional means and ii) the fees are going straight from the taxpayers' pockets to pad for bonuses for bond traders and salespeople in TARP-recipient banks, who are the largest underwriters of FDIC guaranteed bonds. Granted, the government does take a small portion off the top from banks selling guaranteed bonds, but it is nominal compared to the total potential and actual revenue stream.

The biggest abuser of this loophole is easily JP Morgan, which not only charges an arm and a leg for FDIC issuance, but also pockets fees for bonds that it itself issues! If there was ever a massive conflict of interest, this is it: apparently, the house of Dimon shared $123 million in fees with underwriters for raising $30 billion in debt. But as one bond banker said, the FDIC-backed asset class has become "one of the best fee-earners" for banks in recent months. It is likely that TARP recipients will fight tooth and nail from losing this one last remaining source of revenue against the worst underwriting and advisory investment banking climate of all time. Sphere: Related Content

The Deflationary Creep To A 10% Household Savings Rate

The rapid increase in consumer savings has become a major topic of contention, and could easily be the biggest headwind facing Obama's stimulus package, and the threat to reducing the near $2 trillion upcoming budget deficit. Granted, America's drunken spending binge had to come to an end, however the dramatic inversion in the consumer savings rate, which as recently as 2006 was negative, and which now is skyrocketing, has the potential to piledrive any economic system forecasting increasing consumer spending and therefore borrowing. The flipside is that consumers will indirectly fund the massive deficit as they keep buying more and more US Treasuries as the only safe investment alternative... However with $2.5 trillion in upcoming Treasury issuance this year, there may just come a point where even the Treasury bubble will become unattractive to domestic investors.

Bloomberg is out with a piece discussing the ramifications of increased savings on both the stock market (highly negative as investors shift to safe assets) and the treasury market (likely positive). We are not so sure that investors will jump with reckless abandon from the housing bubble to yet another one, but that will be one for the ages. For now the facts speak for themselves: in January investors placed $11.5 billion into taxable bond funds, which include treasuries, compared to only $4 billion for equity funds. Compare that to last year when equity funds saw $29.3 billion of inlows in January and less than half, or $12.3 billion in bond funds. A good quote that captures the shift in investment psychology comes from James Keegan of Ridgeworth Capital Management: "If there is one lesson from 2008 it’s that the return of capital is more important than the return on capital. I don't think that goes away any time soon."

What do the pros say? Goldman's economic team forecasts a staggering rise in household savings, going up to over 8% by 2011. What are the main reasons GS cites for this rapid rise?

1. Household wealth has declined. The precipitous and unexpected decline of housing and financial wealth is depriving households of resources for retirement and major purchases. Exhibit 2 below demonstrates the linear relationship between household net worth and savings rate: based on this data point alone it is safe to assume that savings will reach at least 8% if not more.



2. Future income at risk. In a recent Conference Board survey, a mere 4.4% of respondents thought jobs were "plentiful" while 47.8% saw them as "hard to get", a 17 year low in labor market sentiment. As new jobless claims rose to a 27 year high this week, this pessimism is not unjustified. Furthermore, of those lucky to be employed, very few saw a raise in their future: only 3% of small business in the latest survey from the National Federation of Independent Business planned to raise worker compensation, an all time low in the history of the survey.

3. Lack of credit. Byproducts of the current crisis are the sharp tightening in mortgage and consumer lending conditions. With credit more expensive or unavailable, those spending beyond their means and falling back on evaporating home equity, are forced to pull back. Others will likely voluntarily follow suit, while also reducing borrowings given higher cost of credit.

Extrapolating wealth, income and credit conditions into the future, generates exhibit 4 which mirrors 2, except regressing the more recent data from 1992 onward as a separate trendline. Goldman estimates that based on declines in home and equity prices since the last available Q2, 2008 data point, US households currently have a net worth/income ratio just below 4.5, implying a savings rate of 5-10%. More recent data indicates a lower implied rate, however full historical regression implies the rate may be higher than 10%. As the past 15 years of data were predicated by easy access to credit and an overall market effervescence, the higher implied savings rate will likely be the ultimate outcome.



What are the historical parallels to the current US crisis? Economists Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff analyze the savings rate reaction after financial crises in the following situations: Spain in 1977, Norway in 1987, Finland and Sweden in 1991 and Japan in 1992. These are all comparable to the current US situation as all were preceded by property and equity price booms, followed by sharp declines in asset values, contraction in economic activities and burgeoning public debt. In the analyzed data, saving rates began to rise 1-3 years before the date of the crisis as designated by Reinhart and Rogoff, eventually shooting up 10-12% over a four to six year period to a level above the pre-crisis period.


As empirical data in economics is usually only useful to get an economic professor tenure now and then, the final resting place of U.S. savings will not be dependant on charts and historical data. However, if the current economic crisis is truly without precedent (few relevant data points to trace the U.S. and the global economy into the great recession), even this outcome could potentially be a black swan of some sort. One thing that is certain is that as more and more consumers save instead of spend, any attempt to pull the U.S. out of the deflationary spiral will be shortlived, regardless of how much money is funneled into the general economy.

Sphere: Related Content

AIG To Get Additional $30 Billion From US

The financial Black Hole formerly known as AIG is close to a deal with the U.S. government that would ease the terms of its bailout, provide a further equity commitment and help it pay down debt, a person familiar with the matter said on Saturday. The revised agreement is expected to include an additional equity commitment of $30 billion. Additionally, per Reuters:
The London Interbank Offered Rate floor on the interest rate AIG pays on the government's credit line is expected to be removed under the new terms, which would save the insurer about $1 billion a year, the source said. The company currently pays 3 percentage points above Libor.

AIG will also give the U.S. Federal Reserve ownership interests in American Life Insurance (Alico), which generates more than half of its revenue from Japan, and Hong Kong-based life insurance group American International Assurance Co (AIA) in return for reducing its debt, the source said.
And people were complaining about Citi's "no new equity" bail out. It is a nebulla wrapped in a quasar inside a black hole to predict how the market will react to this on Monday. Sphere: Related Content