Wednesday, January 28, 2009

NYT Hired Goldman To Sell Red Sox Stake, Posts Horrendous Revenues

The distressed semi-Mexican company announced today it has hired Goldman Sachs to sell its 17.75% stake in New England Sports Ventures, which owns the Boston Red Sox, Fenway Park, 80% of New England Sports Network, and 50% of a Nascar Team. Guess that sale leaseback must not be going all that well.

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In other news NYT posted December revenues which were, well, ugly

Ad revenues:
National media: -13.7%
Retail media: -13.3%
Classified media: -28.7%
Other ad revenue: -12.3%

About Group: -13.2%

Total Ad revenues: -15.7% Sphere: Related Content

More on Wall Street Bonuses

New York State has presented this chart to highlight the massacre that was also known as bonus season. Silver lining (not for NY) - banks wont have to pay taxes "for years to come" due to $31.4 billion in tax credits.





Some other points from the report:
  • The average bonus declined by 36.7 percent to $112,000 in 2008. The decline in the average bonus was smaller than the decline in the bonus pool because the pool was shared among fewer workers as the industry shed jobs.
  • The reduction in Wall Street bonuses will cost nearly $1 billion in personal income tax revenues for New York State and another $275 million for New York City. Before the start of the financial crisis, business and personal income tax collections from Wall Street activities accounted for up to 20 percent of State tax revenues and 12 percent of City tax revenues.
  • Employment in the securities industry in New York City declined from 187,800 in October 2007 to 168,600 in December 2008, a loss of 19,200 jobs, or 10.2 percent.
  • At the beginning of 2008, there were seven major financial firms headquartered in New York City. Since then, two have been acquired, one failed, and two converted into commercial banks.
  • A review of the 2008 year-end statements of the major financial firms headquartered in New York City (the Merrill Lynch acquisition was completed in 2009) showed a tax credit of $31.3 billion for 2008, which will reduce the firms’ future tax payments for years to come.
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Early Headlines Jan 28

  • Schwarzman can't wait to burn through more money (Bloomberg)
  • Bill Miller in urgent need of an appointment with Ari Kiev (Bloomberg)
  • Crisis could cost 50 million jobs (FT)
  • CDS trading volume in the Japanese market strangely absent (FT Alphaville)
  • All you need to know about today's Davos proceedings (FT)
  • NY State Comptroller says Wall Street bonuses plunged 44% in 2008, Industry losses to top $35 billion (NYS)
  • Rumor of the day: Wal Mart buying German Arcandor
Sphere: Related Content

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Late Tuesday Headlines

  • Exxon cut to Neutral from Buy at UBS
  • 78,000 fired today (NY Post)
  • Thain called to testify on Merrill bonuses, hires spin doctors (FT, NY Post)
  • Putin to seek new economic order at Davos (Moscow Times)
  • Most Wall Street workers unhappy with their bonuses (Bloomberg)
  • Will CDS spreads tumble in February? (FT Alphaville)
  • AIG has given 400 derivative traders $1.1 million average retention guarantee (Bloomberg)
  • Dov Charney's American Apparel in whole new batch of trouble (NY Post)
  • Petrobras will not issue debt this year, market too expensive (Bloomberg)
  • All about the golddiggers' neo-forum (NY Times)
Sphere: Related Content

SAC Loses Chief Psychiatrist, Underwater Portfolio Managers Elsewhere Gain Peace and Serenity

If you have ever wondered how one can feel calm, relaxed and empowered after blowing a cool $100 mill on the basis trade that the Merrill salesguy was pitching incessantly as totally risk-free, after ingesting an elephant dose of estrogen in an office with the climatic characteristics of Vladivostok, then wonder no more, for a wealth of information, outsider and vice versa, and a comfy leather coach are about to be fully accessible to you. Ari Kiev, M.D., the inhouse "psychiatrist to the hedge fund stars" has launched a new consulting firm, Kiev Consulting, which will specialize in "peak performance coaching for hedge funds and institutional investors and traders."

After having spent nearly a decade working with none other than Blue Eyes himself, it strikes us as odd that the two have opted for this "amicable" split: after all where will Stevie's legions of permaprofitable PMs get their peak performance coaching and such words of wisdom like "To cope with a shrinking portfolio, we suggest that you set spending priorities, tune out the noise and keep your cool." (for many more pearls of PM pep talk we suggest perusing Dr. Kiev's own blog.)

Either way, Stevie's loss is our gain (and Ari's windfall), as portfolio managers are desperate now more than ever for an attentive ear (as their golddigger wives have long since left them with only a divorce lawyer invoice and a huge Centurion bill) to which they can whisper all the details of their counterparty risk having gone up 10 times or triggering every stop loss as Volkswagen hit €1000. In Ari's own words "this consulting practice effectively allows me to broaden my reach and offer customized services to an increasing number of fund managers who are recognizing the importance of a psychological perspective in managing investments. Given the stress of today's market and the challenges faced by professional investors, I felt the time was ripe for expanding my consultation work."

Kiev has said his counsel will encompass dealing with the stress of drawdowns, the behavioral dimension of risk management, psychological screening of analysts and portfolio managers, and creative approaches to building cultures of collaboration, this time presumably not based on unknowingly sipping clinical doses of progesterone with your morning coffee.

Some more phenomenal insight from the doctor himself on what makes the perfect specimen of uber-profitable manager: "I think the best guys are really very skillful in avoiding drawdown; the best guys are good at getting out of losers; the best guys are good at pressing the bet when they see the opportunity. They are making the most of their money; they have the eye of the tiger; they have great purpose, great intensity and a willingness to really stick it out..."

With this kind of insight we are confident the good doctor will be earning more than his former boss in no time. Sphere: Related Content

January 26 CDS Major Movers


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Lawyers Paid Better Than Ever as Creditors Lose Shirts

We have written extensively on the subject (here and here), and we feel it is about time mainstream media paid a little more attention to this very troubling issue. In a time of unprecedented losses for most investors, it is counterintuitive that lawyers should be getting paid as much as $1,110/hour, as this new Bloomberg report observes.

Rick Cieri of Kirkland & Ellis is the best paid human being on an hourly basis, charging $1,110 per hour (converted from British pounds) on his Tronox assignment. Incomprehensibly, Skadden Arps has requested as much as $1,050/hour for partners in the Circuit City Liquidation...uh, LIQUIDATION for god's sake... just how much value are these lawyers going to bring?

Stephen Lubben, a professor at Seton Hall University has the right idea “There is a limit to how many attorneys can demand these kinds of hourly rates, so long as the credit markets remain tight and Chapter 11 tends to be little more than a glorified liquidation tool.”

It is only a matter of time before the general public redirects its attention from Vikram's jet and Thain's commode, to this practice, which in our opinion is just as questionable, even more so as it is shrouded in the secrecy of bankruptcy court proceedings, which very few people understand or care about. It is about time they did.
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Breaking News: GE Capital Corp May Be Cut By Moody's, AAA Rating on Downgrade Review

Uh Oh... Splinters forming among the rating agency community (link)

****UPDATE****

GE immediately issues following statement (no, they definitely did not see this coming)

Statement from GE Regarding Moody’s Review

Business Wire

FAIRFIELD, Conn. -- January 27, 2009

Moody’s informed us today it has placed General Electric Company's and General Electric Capital Corporation's (GECC) long-term Aaa ratings on review for possible downgrade. This review does not affect GE’s and GECC’s short-term funding ratings of Prime-1 (P-1), which were affirmed by Moody's. This action is a follow-up to Moody’s December review of GE’s 2009 operating plan. GE has outlined a plan for the year that is based on the difficult global economic environment we see. During the next few months, we will work constructively with Moody’s on its review. Our objective is to maintain our Triple-A rating but we do not anticipate any major operational impacts should that change. We expect to deliver on the 2009 financial framework that we outlined last week.


GE has taken steps to strengthen its liquidity position, including reducing GE Capital Services' commercial paper from $88 billion in 3Q ’08 to $65 billion today. We have raised 64% of our long-term funding for 2009. The company has more than $50 billion in cash on hand. During 2008, GE increased its alternative funding by $25 billion and will continue to grow this funding in 2009 and beyond. Sphere: Related Content

Bridgewater Warns Most Investors "Will Inevitably Do Badly"

In his annual letter to investors, Ray Dalio, whose $80 billion Bridgewater fund is doing phenomenally well, returning almost 9% in 2008, had some advice and warnings to investors. Key among them: to be truly objective when designing a portfolio of investments and to remove any market bias, as strategy optimization without a deep enough understanding of "how it would work in all circumstances, including circumstances that did not occur within the period that's your frame of reference, you will inevitably do badly." In other words, if you don't anticipate everything that could happen when you throw money in the market, you are bound to lose.

Sounds like wise advice.

Bridgewater's Pure Alpha fund, is an actively-managed, signal-translating global fund, that participates in everything from copper, to currency, to treasuries, and has consistently generated significant returns over risk free rates. Sphere: Related Content

Nick Cosmo Had Extensive Mob Connections

Charlie Gasparino just broke the news that most recent ponzmaster Nick Cosmo of the $370 million Agape World ponzi, had extensive mob connections. Turns out Nick had a gambling addiction problem and owed a lot of money to loan sharks working for the Genovese mafia, and allegedly the Gambino family paid off around $139,000 of these debts on Cosmo's behalf. Also, former mob member Mike D'Urso, currently an informant for the government and in the witness protection program, apparently had tried to collect (or "shook") the money from Cosmo on behalf of the Genovese. Sphere: Related Content

Wexford Goes Activist on Energy Partners Ltd

Wexford Capital, a $6 billion hedge fund run by distressed investor Charles Davidson, went activist on Energy Partners Ltd, sending out one of the only activist letters we have seen in months. Wexford, which states it has a large position in EPL's common stock (although not as large as it did last time around, its holdings have dropped from 9.5% to 8.4%) as well as the 9.75% Senior Notes due 2014 and FRNs due 2013, has presented a list of demands. While not as eloquent as Dan Loeb or Bob Chapman at their peaks, the letter wants the company to:
  • Cut the size of its board
  • Restructure the company debt
  • Cut its S,G&A
  • Fire senior management
  • Cancel its change of control severance agreements
And goes on to conclude that EPL's exploration activities have been a failure.

We are confident EPL management will be thrilled to discuss these demands at its earliest convenience. Sphere: Related Content

Wells Fargo Blames High Mortgage Rates on "Soaring" Demand

This bloomberg article has left us a little speechless... First of all, as we point out recently, Wells Fargo has recently been hiking the rates on its 30 year (and other) conforming mortgages. Today, the bank has stated publicly that the slow drop in rates is due to "soaring" demand for mortgages... Seems nothing can stop people from inflating the next bubble as we are still in the old bubble. Curious how many of the people who are among the soaring crowds lining up in front of Wells' mortgage offices already have 2, 3 or more mortgages that are underwater or in foreclosure... No doubt Wells is really very careful this time around when approving new mortgages. Secondly, how can it be difficult to be lowering rates, i.e. be competitive with everyone else who is sub 5% on the 30 year conforming, when you are seeing this "soaring" demand. In a word, we are a little skeptical of this most recent version of media spin Sphere: Related Content

6 Million Job Losses Expected in 2009

Paul Kedrosky has a link to a Nouriel Roubini (we think of him not so much as Dr. Doom but as Dr. Realism) Bloomberg video interview in which the latter presumes there will be 6 million layoffs this year. He also expects further unemployment increases in 2010. Definitely worth watching. Sphere: Related Content

Rating Agency Brilliance in Action Again: Whiting Petroleum Buying Back Bonds

S&P Yesterday had some bad things to say about Whiting Petroleum and cut its outlook on the name. Well, hopefully you are not a manager who buys and sell based on what those rockets scientists have to say (i.e. a mutual fund): today the company announced it is issuing 8 million shares of stock, which incidentally sent the stock plunging by 10%, in order to pay back a portion of its $620 million total in outstanding debt. Obviously, the bonds have been running today, and the benchmark 7.25% Notes due 5/2013 are now bid up 5 points higher from yesterday at 82. Sphere: Related Content

Breaking News: Art Nadel Captured

Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Florida hedge-fund adviser Arthur Nadel was arrested in Florida by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and has been charged with securities fraud.

Nadel’s arrest comes a week after U.S. regulators accused him of defrauding clients while overstating six funds’ investments by $300 million. Nadel, 76, who disappeared Jan. 14,“recently” transferred at least $1.25 million from two funds to a secret bank account, the Securities and Exchange Commission said in a lawsuit filed Jan. 21 at federal court in Tampa, Florida. The funds’ total assets now are less than $1 million,the agency said. Nadel will appear in court today.

The FBI arrested Nadel today in Tampa, agency spokeswoman Monica McLean said in an interview.

The SEC case is Securities and Exchange Commission v. Arthur Nadel, et. al., 09-cv-00087, U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida (Tampa). Sphere: Related Content

Hedge Fund Secondary Market Update - Jan 27

Nothing too exciting in the Jan 27 roundup. Not surprisingly, of 11 markets, 9 are offers and the two lonely bids are for a paltry $500k in Horseman Global, and for a more impressive $10 MM in Allan Teh's Kamunting Street. On the ask-side, there is $58 million of selling interest, split among Linden, Aristea, Polygon, Whitebox, Harbinger, Indus and Impala (the last one people can't seem to sell enough of). Sphere: Related Content

The Truth Behind Private Jets

After Vikram's Falcongate incident, and of course the CEOs of the Detroit aka Default-3 companies making quite a PR splash in D.C. begging for bailout money after a cushy two hour flight in ultraluxury, the entire private jet industry will likely be under massive scrutiny with the resulting fallout likely to result in many new companies inducted into our Death Watch list. We do agree with Mark Haines that private jets are straw men for public anger venting, but we can think of no more appropriate symbol of the financial excesses of recent times than your garden variety Gulfstream V.

As a result we have pulled a presentation put together by Textron (full link here), the largest maker of private jets in the world, with a 50% market share through its Cessna division. Granted the company has other businesses, notably a military helicopter program, unmanned surveillance aircraft, golf carts and a captive financing business (which we believe is in some serious trouble), but the core of its operations is making aircraft for the ultra wealthy.

Looking at the industry participants on the left, it is ironic that Dassault, which was Vikram's pick for a security-gate skipping vehicle in the form of the Falcon 7x, has only a 1% market share. What is concerning is that the bulk of the companies that make private aircraft are U.S.-based. As one can kiss all private jet backlog good bye for at least several years, many of these companies will simply not survive, and while we do not have the number of people employed at each handy, it would seem that a lot of innocent people will end up on the unemployment line for mistakes committed by others. Very sad state of affairs.

The next slide presents the specific brands of private jets and what their associated cost is. Not surprisingly, Dassault is the Rolls-Royce of this business... Could Vikram maybe have gone for a bargain-basement Eclipse? Perhaps the public outcry would not have been as dramatic.


This slide shows just how much of an impact the huge backlash against private jetting will have on jet producing companies. The backlog of Cessna deliveries for Textron alone is $11.5 billion. If one extrapolates based on its size in the industry, there is currently roughly $23 billion in backlogged orders. It is safe to say that this number will be drastically cut. After all, the biggest purchasers of private jets were the U.S. financial industry, Russian and Arabian oligarchs, and political figures: all of these have private jet purchases last on their mind in right now.


There is much more information available in the above presentation, which we encourage our readers flip through.
Some implications of all these transportation scandals: one has to be very pessimistic about the prospects of private jet manufacturers, especially the public companies, even more especially companies that have associated captive financing units (little GMACs waiting to grow up). How about fractional jet ownership companies? Not too clear. Warren Buffet of course disagrees, but it is possible that as major financial companies clamp down on spending, high execs will have no choice but to fly commercial like the rest of us mortals. Plus have you read a RobbReport recently? Each magazine is exactly one article and roughly 1000 ads for companies that want to sell you timeshares on their permanently parked G-5s. And of course, we feel bad for all the employees, as many of them will have to look for jobs quite soon. Then again with unemployment headlines hitting a runrate of 100,000/day, they will end up being just another statistic.
Sphere: Related Content

Taxpayers: 1; Private Jets: 0

Citigroup spokesman Stephen Cohen has confirmed in an interview today that Citigroup "has no intent to take delivery of any new aircraft," and promptly declined to comment beyond the statement. The great arbitrator Obama, who was among the first to weigh in on commode-gate, has said he "doesn't believe using private jets is the best use of money." Sphere: Related Content

Early Headlines January 27

  • Bill Dudley to become new NY Fed President (Bloomberg)
  • Delta losses widen (Press Release)
  • Good article on why everyone who claims CDS are the reason for the current debacle, is a little slow (Derivative Dribble)
  • Canadian Oil Sands on their way to murky bitumenous death (FTAlphaville)
  • Paulson & Co. makes $420 million shorting RBS Stock (Bloomberg, as we expected)
  • Corning next on streamlining train (FT)
  • TARP-linked index down 36% since inception (Alea)
Sphere: Related Content

Monday, January 26, 2009

Late Monday Headlines

  • Iceland government crumbles sending country into total chaos (Stratfor)
  • Endowments 101: How university endowments are about to have their worst year ever (Bloomberg)
  • Russian Finance Minister pushes for world financial watchdog (Moscow Times)
  • Merrill's 16,800 brokers on verge of mass exodus (NY Post)
  • A third of Starbucks HQ employees about to be let go (Seattle Times)
  • Pink slips reach record levels (FT)
  • Latest ponzimaster Cosmo surrenders, no manhunt here (Bloomberg)
  • Thain will not go quietly (WSJ)
  • When the market fails, back to bartering (Moscow Times)
Sphere: Related Content