tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post6464253971099031210..comments2024-02-27T22:18:53.706-05:00Comments on Zero Hedge: Don't fall into the equity trap for oilTyler Durdenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00165439451205639523noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-74483138744831436662009-04-07T15:12:00.000-04:002009-04-07T15:12:00.000-04:00Cornelius,Check out zmansenergybrain.com, look at ...Cornelius,<BR/><BR/>Check out zmansenergybrain.com, look at the charts from 02 Apr.<BR/><BR/>Over the last 8 weeks or so gasoline demand has been on par with last years numbers (granted, it was $3+ then and it's around 2 now.) I don't think it's a headfake, just a result of the product being 30% cheaper.<BR/><BR/>Distillate demand, on the other hand, has been pretty crappy.CFischernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-32834866059544808112009-04-07T11:45:00.000-04:002009-04-07T11:45:00.000-04:00I have little faith in OPEC controlling much of an...I have little faith in OPEC controlling much of anything, unless they get really drastic. <BR/><BR/>CFischer, I'd be interested to see that data. My feeling is you may be selectively reading into the data or it may be a head-fake in the numbers but I'd like to learn more about it.Corneliushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05396035519145306065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-75015933541503285942009-04-07T09:32:00.000-04:002009-04-07T09:32:00.000-04:00Anon2,I also disagree. Try looking into some of th...Anon2,<BR/><BR/>I also disagree. Try looking into some of the demand numbers for oil. It's actually up y-o-y in some categories.CFischernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-78771691614928125792009-04-07T08:33:00.000-04:002009-04-07T08:33:00.000-04:00Oil is not one of the US government's preferred ch...Oil is not one of the US government's preferred channels for speculators to drive up prices. Safer to just stick with stocks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-83760273575760291832009-04-07T07:53:00.000-04:002009-04-07T07:53:00.000-04:00@Anon #2 Unfortunately for nat gas and LNG there i...@Anon #2 Unfortunately for nat gas and LNG there is no OPEC, oil doesn't have to follow nat gas down. If the Saudi's want $45 they'll get it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-57311541514774529482009-04-07T01:06:00.000-04:002009-04-07T01:06:00.000-04:00AMEX Oil index is down 35% yet oil and nat gas are...AMEX Oil index is down 35% yet oil and nat gas are down 2x that much. the index also hasn't even come close to testing its nov 20 lows, much less early march. the oil sector is the next sector that is going to get whacked. hedgies still love the energy/materials playground, with their huge betas.<BR/><BR/>Also, too much money banking on the inflation trade. Given the structural dynamics/fundamentals, oil is a poor inflation hedge. <BR/><BR/>oil will leg down again...$25bbl...nat gas is a wreck, too...sub $3mcf just around the corner. laying down rigs...blah blah blah...rig counts went up last week for the first time since october...and horizontal drilling rig production only recently went negative in february. pile on lng and nat gas doesn't have a prayer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-25213353508336817912009-04-07T00:52:00.000-04:002009-04-07T00:52:00.000-04:00Interesting post, look forward to seeing the more ...Interesting post, look forward to seeing the more detailed post on the macro factors.<BR/><BR/>Also, good call on the Australian rate cuts... it was just released that they were cutting by .25 like you said.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com