tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post4006681272580626803..comments2024-02-27T22:18:53.706-05:00Comments on Zero Hedge: Commercial Real Estate Marking: CMBS Relative ValueTyler Durdenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00165439451205639523noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-69615822345327760352009-03-25T13:11:00.000-04:002009-03-25T13:11:00.000-04:00At the AAA level, maybe CMBX could provide some re...At the AAA level, maybe CMBX could provide some relevant data, but I wouldn't take it on its own.<BR/><BR/>Anywhere below AAA, and the disconnect between CMBX and cash is enormous, and the flows are almost nonexistant in both. It's really not a pricing mechanism for anything worthwhile.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-83242420349985595222009-03-25T11:56:00.000-04:002009-03-25T11:56:00.000-04:00Thanks Tyler. Really looking forward to more detai...Thanks Tyler. Really looking forward to more details about this market. I hope it is not all doom and gloom!aviat72https://www.blogger.com/profile/16729507895807002085noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-61085082606885361002009-03-25T11:55:00.000-04:002009-03-25T11:55:00.000-04:00cmbx.1 is late 2005 to early 2006,...cmbx.2 is mid...cmbx.1 is late 2005 to early 2006,...cmbx.2 is mid 2006.<BR/><BR/>lehmans been putting this info out for a while, pretty much anyone with an email address can get it (heartbeat not required). i built one of these models, you just have to make some assumptions to get to loss% and timing<BR/><BR/>not sure cash would be better indicator of losses since it has other risks associated with owning it and is subject to too much technical factors.<BR/>frankly, neither is a good indicator for losses, market is a mess, maybe if you use a 15% discount rate since thats about the risk free return on these products.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-5170162615534359562009-03-25T10:32:00.000-04:002009-03-25T10:32:00.000-04:00Vintage. Without looking it up, I think 1 is CMBS...Vintage. Without looking it up, I think 1 is CMBS from late 2005 / early 2006, 2 is late 2006.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-381609409171344832009-03-25T10:28:00.000-04:002009-03-25T10:28:00.000-04:00what is the difference between CMBX.1 and 2?what is the difference between CMBX.1 and 2?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-88187637064542268042009-03-25T10:11:00.000-04:002009-03-25T10:11:00.000-04:00There are far too many non-CMBS participants playi...There are far too many non-CMBS participants playing the CMBX-as-macro-bet for it to be used as a metric for anything other than general tone.<BR/><BR/>Cash spreads are arguably a better indicator of expected losses, because at least the cash flows are direct, and there is little ability (GG10 A4's and TRS being the only real options) to short the cash market. This eliminates macro players for the most part.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-13043064048771902922009-03-25T09:23:00.000-04:002009-03-25T09:23:00.000-04:00@ 9:22 AM retraction issued.@ 9:22 AM retraction issued.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-8349764402467087632009-03-25T09:22:00.000-04:002009-03-25T09:22:00.000-04:00@ 9:16 AMIt's suppose to be too small. Apparently ...@ 9:16 AM<BR/><BR/>It's suppose to be too small. Apparently it's an extortion attempt against Lehman. This morning Tyler changed the caption under the image but did not correct the hyperlink problem.<BR/><BR/>Next he'll replace the entire image with the photo of a pig putting on lipstick.<BR/><BR/><BR/>We'll getting tooled.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-87634301482133934742009-03-25T09:16:00.000-04:002009-03-25T09:16:00.000-04:00i can't read it because the numbers are too small!...i can't read it because the numbers are too small!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-74311698742385795032009-03-25T08:02:00.000-04:002009-03-25T08:02:00.000-04:00First you post Barclays work here and then you put...First you post Barclays work here and then you put the LEH dig there...WTF! How do you get away with posting this proprietary information in a public forum?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-63546565628910381552009-03-25T06:38:00.000-04:002009-03-25T06:38:00.000-04:00Would it be bad if I seconded that as well? I'd lo...Would it be bad if I seconded that as well? I'd love to understand the explanation more by seeing the chart properly, but the cursor only turns into a hand but no hyperlinks would open...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-90996380584369158752009-03-25T05:04:00.000-04:002009-03-25T05:04:00.000-04:00Looking forward to your write up on cash flow dyna...Looking forward to your write up on cash flow dynamics of both CRE whole loans and CMBS.<BR/><BR/>Can you please link the CMBS table(figure11.jpg thumbnail) to the full size image.<BR/><BR/>Thank you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-43945063138620590032009-03-25T02:59:00.000-04:002009-03-25T02:59:00.000-04:00Yes, I second that notion. Please put up an enlarg...Yes, I second that notion. Please put up an enlarged version - it would be most appreciated!Lenny Veehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07889839184361569708noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-38881388654309456322009-03-25T01:47:00.000-04:002009-03-25T01:47:00.000-04:00Unable to enlarge the table.Unable to enlarge the table.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com