tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post3682209832925772732..comments2024-02-27T22:18:53.706-05:00Comments on Zero Hedge: The Fundamentals Behind CRE - Part 1Tyler Durdenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00165439451205639523noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-30002711239694694942009-03-30T11:04:00.000-04:002009-03-30T11:04:00.000-04:00little to add to the DB stuff - like you said they...little to add to the DB stuff - like you said they are finally becoming surprisingly realistic on the issue. Curious what the DB angle is. they followed this piece up with another doom and gloom report on sunday. and yes, all props to DBTyler Durdenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00165439451205639523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-32454226605008947732009-03-30T11:01:00.000-04:002009-03-30T11:01:00.000-04:00All of those charts are from a DB presentation las...All of those charts are from a DB presentation last week, straight cut and paste, you should give them more credit than "primary data".<BR/><BR/>Regardless, it was a great conference call, and I haven't seen a sell-side research guy that gloomy on CRE before. Pretty shocking.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-41796048502292250772009-03-30T02:28:00.000-04:002009-03-30T02:28:00.000-04:00"Cumulative losses will be upwards of 30% for..."Cumulative losses will be upwards of 30% for AAAs in the riskier vintages (CMBX4 & 5)."<BR/><BR/>this comment makes no sense.<BR/><BR/>if you have been long the credit steepener, you probably havent made much money, and the CMBX AAA rally in the past couple weeks probably finally put you back in the black on your trade. In the last year: AAAs are down about 30 points, BBB- down maybe 35. you are up 5 points in a year, nice!<BR/><BR/>Lastly, if cum losses will be 30% on AAAs (whatever that means), why would you have a steepener on in the first place? seems like an outright short of AAAs or AJs would have been the trade as you would have made 30 points on notional. instead you made little to no money on your steepener. <BR/><BR/>for the sake of any investor, i hope its your own money you're playing with and not managed moneyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-24508028058143246912009-03-30T02:00:00.000-04:002009-03-30T02:00:00.000-04:00Cumulative losses will be upwards of 30% for AAAs ...Cumulative losses will be upwards of 30% for AAAs in the riskier vintages (CMBX4 & 5). This is going to be a maelstorm.<BR/><BR/>P.S. I have been long the steepener for a year now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-89387337362956156692009-03-29T23:08:00.000-04:002009-03-29T23:08:00.000-04:00Hey ZH - as a CRE virgin, can u point me to some B...Hey ZH - as a CRE virgin, can u point me to some Bloomberg pages to track the CRE data upu are using - would love to build some of my own sheets. I track CMBX every day but would love to find a 'simple' page on BBG to get this data - any ideas?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-71185884714950225442009-03-29T14:35:00.000-04:002009-03-29T14:35:00.000-04:00.gov will depreciate USD just like Harold Wilson d....gov will depreciate USD just like Harold Wilson did the GBP.<BR/><BR/> This will be a net positive for RE, but CRE still has over-capacity issues.qadihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10818601425602052107noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-80436862307464249272009-03-29T04:21:00.000-04:002009-03-29T04:21:00.000-04:006% total delq rate is at end of 2010. slyler's mat...6% total delq rate is at end of 2010. slyler's material doesnt quote anything beyond that. so depending on where delq rates go between say 2010 and 2017 would determine ultimate total delinquency of the pool of loans and eventually cumulative loss.<BR/><BR/>good ol tyler,.."just a guy with a schwab account and some lil 'ol web page with write ups to help him out,.. a guy who just started out with some simple cap arb trades and market commentary and look what he can write about now",..very interesting... interesting indeed my friend.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-30004859382595309772009-03-29T02:06:00.000-04:002009-03-29T02:06:00.000-04:00Great post! Look forward to readingyour updates o...Great post! Look forward to reading<BR/>your updates on CMBS.Tawei Liaohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02183021860732828622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-11087533782669484182009-03-28T20:03:00.000-04:002009-03-28T20:03:00.000-04:00I know I'm misunderstanding something so someone p...I know I'm misunderstanding something so someone please correct. Assume 6% default on cmbs as zh says comes in 2010. assume 50% recovery rate, that means they should be worth around 97 on the dollar. Why are they trading so much lower if this one of the grimmer predictions?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-14002963052290349952009-03-28T17:23:00.000-04:002009-03-28T17:23:00.000-04:00ZH,Won't the PPIP be used to buy up the CRE as it ...ZH,<BR/><BR/>Won't the PPIP be used to buy up the CRE as it sours? The more important factor here is whether the government will be able to hit up taxpayers over the coming 12 months as CRE losses build. What are your thoughts?<BR/><BR/>TPCTPChttp://www.pragcap.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-35493379387986392942009-03-28T16:26:00.000-04:002009-03-28T16:26:00.000-04:00Was slowing people down. If enough want it back wi...Was slowing people down. If enough want it back will reinstall itTyler Durdenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00165439451205639523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-21187964988314050572009-03-28T16:25:00.000-04:002009-03-28T16:25:00.000-04:00i can't see TALF helping much with this as it will...i can't see TALF helping much with this as it will only take the senior tranche and take a haircut on that as well. who is going to take equity tranche in a falling market?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-65718466374214933652009-03-28T16:16:00.000-04:002009-03-28T16:16:00.000-04:00What happened to the audio feature?What happened to the audio feature?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com