tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post8271190973666584946..comments2024-02-27T22:18:53.706-05:00Comments on Zero Hedge: SqueeeeeeeeeeeeeezeTyler Durdenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00165439451205639523noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-25414850967845687682009-04-16T18:03:00.000-04:002009-04-16T18:03:00.000-04:00I unfortunately am in the Citi arb trade, and my c...I unfortunately am in the Citi arb trade, and my cost is 100% annualized net short stock interest right now through Thinkorswim. Thankfully I only committed a very small amount of capital to this trade (wanted to try capital structure arbitrage; got my learning experience!). Hopefully this thing converts soon so it can be over with!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-24779488929128564322009-04-15T10:42:00.000-04:002009-04-15T10:42:00.000-04:0075 procent cost for the stock loan in C.75 procent cost for the stock loan in C.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-79356349648689317482009-04-14T17:59:00.000-04:002009-04-14T17:59:00.000-04:00IMHO everything about today shows this was an orch...IMHO everything about today shows this was an orchestrated squeeze. The underlying breadth in the market has been deteriorating for the past week, while major indicies have held in on the back of strength only in the most toxic low-dollar financials. The best trader on the street moved up their earnings release a day to be able to get the secondary off this morning... the secondary broke offer price. Finally, the majority of the move in Citigroup and the rest of the zombies occurs on the overnight gap and morning buy-in. After the weak shorts and arbs are pushed out , things subsequently normalize. Financials are about to fall off a cliff....The strong hands were the sellers today.Lottery Tickethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01182567092639848278noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-55030240728084977592009-04-14T15:21:00.000-04:002009-04-14T15:21:00.000-04:00in options world, the C Jun and Jan10 reversal/con...in options world, the C Jun and Jan10 reversal/conversions have been trading all over the freaking place.. and in Size!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-30823899738595499842009-04-14T12:46:00.000-04:002009-04-14T12:46:00.000-04:00I rarely trade on speculation, but when TD first f...I rarely trade on speculation, but when TD first floated this I had to put a little skin in the game (long June calls @ 1/4 my usual risk position) to keep things exciting. <br /><br />Sure, the fundamentals suck, and this rally *should* flame out, but when have the fundamentals ever told you what the stock/company/country is going to do over the short term?<br /><br />Despite the waning volume, demand is in control of this market and I'm not going to fight it until I see some supply show up.Josh Romanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01852050537338461819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-60714286525015667242009-04-14T11:39:00.000-04:002009-04-14T11:39:00.000-04:00If you short the May 4 calls, you can always be as...If you short the May 4 calls, you can always be assigned and then screwed that way....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-7653349346670946222009-04-14T11:31:00.000-04:002009-04-14T11:31:00.000-04:00Even if you can't find C common to short, you can ...Even if you can't find C common to short, you can short the May calls (May 3.0 call is only about 10 cents over parity) and arb this.... if the exchange rate holds. Mkt is clearly saying the exchange rate WILL NOT hold.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-52524050793580908762009-04-14T11:29:00.000-04:002009-04-14T11:29:00.000-04:00Thanks Mr. Squeeze, and the govt's ultimate end-ga...Thanks Mr. Squeeze, and the govt's ultimate end-game is? That the artifical short squeeze becomes self-fulfilling, reigniting the necessary 'confidence'? Or will there actually be a real payout to equity holders in the end? How do these 'fatties' actually continue operating and how does current equity get paid after everything that is senior to it on the balance sheet?<br /><br />Very hard for me to see how this plays out beyond a trade ...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-82927708557326366582009-04-14T11:27:00.000-04:002009-04-14T11:27:00.000-04:00Funny how when ALL THE SMART money piles into one ...Funny how when ALL THE SMART money piles into one side of the boat they end up getting tipped into the water . . . . <br /><br />I'm not playing, but the odd thing about the major banks in 1Q 09 is that the reported earnings should be extremely good. Think about the net interest margin - courtesy of the Fed, the cost of funding is extremely low and due to the liquidity crunch rates on loans outstanding haven't come in nearly as much. And regarding lots of the Super Senior garbage that banks are carrying at 60-90 cents on the dollar while it's trading at 30 cents, BECAUSE the overcollateralization hasn't run out YET, many/most/all of the bonds are still paying 100 cents on the coupon(s). Strange maybe that so much soon-to-be impaired credit is paying 100 cents on the dollar. Since maybe under the new FASB ruling banks won't feel the pressure to mark assets held down to market (so credit losses won't be exhorbitant), the wide wide wide net interest margins might well fuel great earnings for a quarter - and what would be a completely fake rally in bank stocks as a result.MarketBlogichttp://marketblogic.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-440111277573785912009-04-14T11:24:00.000-04:002009-04-14T11:24:00.000-04:00I've never traded preferreds but we're using "arb"...I've never traded preferreds but we're using "arb" colloquially here, right? It was only an arbitrage if I believed a government/citi propaganda that put out the idea of converting at $3.25 and assiduously shorted out all my common deltas? If I had bought the preferreds naked on the thesis that I want to be on Tim and Ben's side then I'd have gotten almost 400% price appreciation on top of my 8.125% yield. Am I missing a subtlety there? Glad I found this blog I was getting sick of all the vague macro crap most people wax philosophical about.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-22595351624396348382009-04-14T11:10:00.000-04:002009-04-14T11:10:00.000-04:0011:00 AM--
compare the charts of the 4 Fatties vs...11:00 AM--<br /><br />compare the charts of the 4 Fatties vs. each other and vs. the broader rally.<br /><br />then consider this possibility:<br /><br />the Guvvies are calling in their shares...in very well-timed chunks.<br /><br />...all in the public interest of course...mr. squeezehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VggWohpWh5c&feature=player_embeddednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-24879725691348490522009-04-14T11:04:00.000-04:002009-04-14T11:04:00.000-04:00A while back, you suggested the citi squeeze could...A while back, you suggested the citi squeeze could make volkwagon look like childs play. Might the whole financial sector be the squeeze (indirectly pulling the entire market), with the ultimate outcome similiar to what happened to VW?<br /><br />MikeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-73596030233567719532009-04-14T11:00:00.000-04:002009-04-14T11:00:00.000-04:00Would love to hear from Tyler, Mr. Squeeze, or any...Would love to hear from Tyler, Mr. Squeeze, or anyone on the board an interpretation of what is happening to the worst financials. What's the play? Just a technical trade on penny stocks or is there a real belief that equity holders will somehow get paid out? On C, BAC, shouldn't be, but govt may find a way to do it, but how can govt engineer payouts to equity on AIG, FNM, FRE? It just seems too beyond the pale?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-17603681198249868582009-04-14T10:59:00.000-04:002009-04-14T10:59:00.000-04:00thx for correctionthx for correctionTyler Durdenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00165439451205639523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-84979656825868842842009-04-14T10:58:00.000-04:002009-04-14T10:58:00.000-04:00isnt it 7.31 common short / 1 pfd LONG?isnt it 7.31 common short / 1 pfd LONG?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-78646060747560941432009-04-14T10:51:00.000-04:002009-04-14T10:51:00.000-04:00wow...look at AIG Fannie Freddie!
ladies & ge...wow...look at AIG Fannie Freddie!<br /><br />ladies & gentlemen, fasten your seatbelts, part 2 of the Gubmint Cheese Squeeze has commenced.<br /><br />TinyTim will be at the lever today.<br /><br />please keep your hands firmly secure on the bar in front of you and please no spitting.<br /><br />enjoy the ride...mr. squeezenoreply@blogger.com