tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post6816663910032393622..comments2024-02-27T22:18:53.706-05:00Comments on Zero Hedge: The Imminent Disinformation SchismTyler Durdenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00165439451205639523noreply@blogger.comBlogger89125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-1803938904110460442009-04-14T10:56:00.000-04:002009-04-14T10:56:00.000-04:00"Bailing out bankers, yet another infringement on ..."Bailing out bankers, yet another infringement on our rights by the gov't. Add it to the ever-growing list of violations:<br />They violate the 1st Amendment by opening mail, caging demonstrators and banning books like "America Deceived" from Amazon, Wikipedia and Facebook.<br />They violate the 2nd Amendment by confiscating guns during Katrina.<br />They violate the 4th Amendment by conducting warrant-less wiretaps.<br />They violate the 5th and 6th Amendment by suspending habeas corpus.<br />They violate the 8th Amendment by torturing at Gitmo.<br />They violate the entire Constitution by starting illegal wars without declaration.<br />Impeach them all (both parties) and save this great country.<br />Last link (unless Google Books caves to the gov't and drops the title):<br />America Deceived (book)"<br /><br />Thanks for the above truth.<br />The Canadian Banks are OK<br />The Canadian Healthcare system is OK<br />The Canadian immigration system is OK<br />GO FIGURE!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-28735311620999514682009-04-13T21:52:00.000-04:002009-04-13T21:52:00.000-04:00This article is very timely and relevant. As I quo...This article is very timely and relevant. As I quote Cameron Muir, an economist, "Home sales are unlikely to fall much further..That being said we expect home sales not to decline much further." <br /><br />But it's never too late, with the right business plan set up, it will lead to valuable outcome. This is what most counselors would give as an advise.COACHING BY PETERhttp://www.coachingbypeter.com/sha/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-54216120762977537772009-04-13T18:11:00.000-04:002009-04-13T18:11:00.000-04:00Bailing out bankers, yet another infringement on o...Bailing out bankers, yet another infringement on our rights by the gov't. Add it to the ever-growing list of violations:<BR/>They violate the 1st Amendment by opening mail, caging demonstrators and banning books like "America Deceived" from Amazon, Wikipedia and Facebook.<BR/>They violate the 2nd Amendment by confiscating guns during Katrina.<BR/>They violate the 4th Amendment by conducting warrant-less wiretaps.<BR/>They violate the 5th and 6th Amendment by suspending habeas corpus.<BR/>They violate the 8th Amendment by torturing at Gitmo.<BR/>They violate the entire Constitution by starting illegal wars without declaration.<BR/>Impeach them all (both parties) and save this great country.<BR/>Last link (unless Google Books caves to the gov't and drops the title):<BR/><A HREF="http://www.iuniverse.com/Bookstore/BookDetail.aspx?BookId=SKU-000083883" REL="nofollow">America Deceived (book)</A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-62416446392899883832009-04-13T10:05:00.000-04:002009-04-13T10:05:00.000-04:00Gotta agree with anon April 11, 2009 8:45 PM and a...Gotta agree with anon April 11, 2009 8:45 PM and anon April 12, 2009 5:15 PM... most of Tyler's realpoint data is taken WAY out of context. everyone in the industry knows that talking about delinquencies in %'s is the way media makes mountains out of mole hills.<BR/><BR/>However, this data is just writing on the wall... just arrows that point in a certain direction. For that purpose alone, I guess its a good 'informational post.'<BR/><BR/>Everyone knows that Stuytown is going down...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-12995210255824974322009-04-12T21:59:00.000-04:002009-04-12T21:59:00.000-04:00Wow. This blog sure has blown up in the past week...Wow. This blog sure has blown up in the past week.<BR/><BR/>For all accusing "Tyler" of being underwater egregious amounts of SRS, can someone please show me the link to where he posts real time trades, etc because I sure haven't seen it.Danny Taggartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-5098037374586608742009-04-12T17:15:00.000-04:002009-04-12T17:15:00.000-04:00A lot of data presented, but unfortunately no meat...A lot of data presented, but unfortunately no meat on the bone for me. <BR/>CRE delinquencies lag a recovery.<BR/>In the early 90s, CRE delinquencies continued to increase well after the end of the recession, peaking dramatically higher about a year after the recession ended.<BR/><BR/>I dont belive there will be a V shaped recovery, but this post does a poor job of connecting the dots between CRE defaults and an L shaped recovery. Especially considering there are so many other subjects that can be discussed that would support your case.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-79023750537675959712009-04-12T15:07:00.000-04:002009-04-12T15:07:00.000-04:00So 50% of all home owners do not have a mortgage -...So 50% of all home owners do not have a mortgage - YET?<BR/><BR/>As those same 50% move into retirment and realize that the average public/private pension funds have blown up. And that the average 50-65 year old has about $61,000 in thier 401K where do you think their retirement money is going to come from?<BR/><BR/>With respect to residential real estate, what is going to happen in May (particularily in California) after the 6 month halt on forclosures comes to an end?<BR/><BR/>Some local color, i am a Canadian. Lake Loiuse ski resort had thier slowest March since <BR/>1981. Great snow, but no UK, Japanese and few U.S.A guests. Just came back from Maui. The <BR/>4seasons Maui, 55% occuptancy (through canadain and us spring breaks). Worse for them Christmas reservations normally see a roll of about 80%-90% year on year (as you leave christmas 2008 you book christmas 2009). This year thier roll is about 40%.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-30468587567666744342009-04-12T12:56:00.000-04:002009-04-12T12:56:00.000-04:00sorry to disappoint ya, but i haven't watched ...sorry to disappoint ya, but i haven't watched a movie for a solid 5 years, save for a long plane ride where i caught a triple feature of Dr. Strangelove, Vertigo & Fantasia.<BR/><BR/>plus, i thought FC was much better as a book than a movie.<BR/><BR/>and sorry, don't know Faber but i do know James Brown. congrats on your belt. i'm sure you wear it proudly.<BR/><BR/>as to the cloak of anonymity that you wear here, you might wanna check it for any flaws of transparency...<BR/><BR/>...especially to anyone that has travelled to your virtual Rome, visited the Forum and read the Old Testament (especially the 1st chapter)...<BR/><BR/>Ego unveils us all eventually, amigo, belt wearers included. please accept my sincere apologies for not including you and your boy mish in the list above.<BR/><BR/>of course, i could always be mistaken, but please be advised that it won't be because your possible future attempts to throw me off the scent.<BR/><BR/>if i am correct, i must take this opportunity to commend you for your disembodied CNBC appearance a couple months back. that smirk that Jimbo gave when he realized who it *really* was on the call -- priceless...<BR/><BR/>how's that for an easter egg?t not tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-76390814113724261282009-04-12T11:47:00.000-04:002009-04-12T11:47:00.000-04:00T2,Your quant spends a lot of time correcting flaw...T2,<BR/>Your quant spends a lot of time correcting flawed logic.<BR/><BR/>I agree you're all a bunch of Hollywood rooted fight club boys so it's a fitting description.<BR/><BR/>In your weight class I'm Urijah Faber, not TD. Wearing the belt and getting paid for real. Good day.<BR/><BR/>http://www.cagetoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/faber-vs-pulver.jpg<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.cagetoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/faber-vs-pulver.jpg" REL="nofollow">Hollywood vs reality</A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-91875015041619048782009-04-12T11:20:00.000-04:002009-04-12T11:20:00.000-04:001st paragraph above revised: in the spirit of full...1st paragraph above revised: <BR/><BR/>in the spirit of full disclosure, tippi canoe & tyler too are no more the tyler of ZH than u are tyler of ZH or that the tyler of ZH is the tyler of FC.T2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-80765598275785443872009-04-12T11:05:00.000-04:002009-04-12T11:05:00.000-04:00tyler@8:05 --in the spirit of full disclosure, tip...tyler@8:05 --<BR/><BR/>in the spirit of full disclosure, tippi canoe & tyler too are no more tyler and than u are tyler, or that tyler of ZH is the tyler of FC.<BR/><BR/>on the flip, in the spirit of FC, we are all are tylers, hence the name.<BR/><BR/>...i'ma tyler, he'sa tyler, u'rea tyler too...<BR/><BR/>this tyler respectfully suggests that maybe all of us tylers should go rent the film from NFLX and watch it again, as there's some subtlities in there that may have not been fully apparent on 1st viewing that have been uncovered in the last 8 years, especially the last 8 months.<BR/><BR/>in fact, this tyler chooses to believe that there are also tylers lurking in the bowels of manhat and DC and the core of the problem is that those tylers refuse to admit to anyone (most of all to themselves) that they are in fact tylers too, masquerading in their own 'identity' doing everything they can to prevent the appearance of their inner tylers.<BR/><BR/>i present our fair president as example par excellence (but that is simply a subjective view that is flexible based on future decisions).<BR/><BR/>as far as TD:ZH talking his book, EVERYONE is talking their book, whether or not they choose to disclose their true 'identity'.<BR/><BR/>Krugman, Mankiw, Roubini, Dimondog, Pandit the Bandit, Bernanke, Summers, Obama, Wen Jiabao, Putin, Soros, Rogers, Yves Smith, Bill Black, Simon Johnson, etc, etc, etc are ALL talking their 'book'. even good ol' Martin Armstrong (god bless him) typing away in the prison library is talking his book, in that his 'book' is personal vindication, justly or not (depending upon your own subjective viewpoint, for which in this case, you and i happen to agree on).<BR/><BR/>in that TD:ZH is disclosing his inner 'tyler', one could make the case that he at least he is being more intellectually and ethically honest in not masquerading around in his true 'identity' without full disclosure of his shadow side. this tyler finds it difficult to make the same case for most of the others in that above list.<BR/><BR/>whether or not you agree, is not the real point that we should be all applying our own personal multiplier on how we discount each 'book' in disclosing true 'reality'? for does not 'value', 'identity', 'truth' and 'reality' itself underneath its cloak of objectivity have a subjective core (and vice versa)?<BR/><BR/>is not that one of the fundamental issues that these times are revealing to us all?<BR/><BR/>with all said (and apologies to all for the long digression), i'm still down to have a hugs & fist-a-cuffs session with you and the other tylers on the corner of broad & pearl....if for no other reason than to further pull back the curtain dead center in the middle of the throne room so that we can more fully illuminate the deep crevasses that exist below the surface.<BR/><BR/>until then, a 1931 vintage honest abe back at'ya...T2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-14613832456301381102009-04-12T10:55:00.000-04:002009-04-12T10:55:00.000-04:00Anonymous @ 3:55 am pretty much sums it up.Anonymous @ 3:55 am pretty much sums it up.DABbionoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-26193018903188738782009-04-12T10:34:00.000-04:002009-04-12T10:34:00.000-04:00great write, thanks a lot!great write, thanks a lot!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-57637436647023977622009-04-12T09:45:00.000-04:002009-04-12T09:45:00.000-04:00And finally, Fuck the commercial vanity monkeys li...And finally, <BR/>Fuck the commercial vanity monkeys like Trump he will always net-net lose.<BR/><BR/>Show me that Ted Turner's(the largest land owner in this country)portfolio is close to default and I might raise an eyebrow. <BR/><BR/>Show me Turner's buying and I'll tell you 'I told you so'.<BR/><BR/>Check it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-78916349173776662212009-04-12T09:44:00.000-04:002009-04-12T09:44:00.000-04:00To answer anonymous, about half of US residential ...To answer anonymous, about half of US residential real estate is mortgaged. I don't know the answer for commercial mortgages.<BR/><BR/>I agree with much of what Tyler says, but the mountain of statistics is overwhelming and belabors his point. The resi market is ten times the size of the commercial market, so its behavior is much more important to the economy as a whole.crabsofsteelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-21961078718944170522009-04-12T09:11:00.000-04:002009-04-12T09:11:00.000-04:00Furthermore, if you wanted to present a balanced a...Furthermore, if you wanted to present a balanced article you would include facts like:<BR/><BR/>1)How many Americans own their property(residential and or commercial) outright without mortgage or liens. <BR/><BR/>That one is a confidence booster, and may surprise people reading this blog.<BR/><BR/>I believe in further corrections in this downturn, but my opinions are tempered with balanced facts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-42315172956736190302009-04-12T08:39:00.000-04:002009-04-12T08:39:00.000-04:00Oh btw, comparing CMBS or anything financial requi...Oh btw, comparing CMBS or anything financial requires skill and perspective.<BR/><BR/>CMBS today vs. CMBS in 2005,06,07 is comparing apples to oranges. Boom vs. bust. <BR/><BR/>As the say in real estate, show me comps. Show me CMBS for every downturn past to present. Maybe adjust for inflation, interest rates, shift of worldwide wealth. <BR/><BR/>Did you know many of the real estate transactions that were done over the last 5 years had a seller and a buyer (winner$$ and loser). <BR/><BR/>Where did that winning money go? Did they throw it in the money hole?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-43868225450981737172009-04-12T08:36:00.000-04:002009-04-12T08:36:00.000-04:00The FT ran a story Friday which linked to Greenspa...The FT ran a story Friday which linked to Greenspan's infamous 66' Randian essay<BR/><BR/>"Gold and Economic Freedom".<BR/><BR/>When they link to his 99" quote"<BR/><BR/>"gold is still the ultimate forma of payment...int imes of stress, nothing else will do"<BR/><BR/>it is time to worry.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-36482074496307030632009-04-12T08:05:00.000-04:002009-04-12T08:05:00.000-04:00Alright, I'm sorry. Didn't mean to hurt your feeli...Alright, I'm sorry. Didn't mean to hurt your feelings. I'll meet T2 down at 85 Broad St so we can hug-it-out!<BR/><BR/>Jus saying, pull back the f'in curtain already. If you want credibility these days you cannot present yourself as a cartoon character from a old movie, no? Especially if you're making the kind of calls that you are making. We all have enough drama Sunday pm - Friday pm.<BR/><BR/>Present a balanced story and I'll stop having to guess that you're a losing quant trying to get everyone to run to the other side of the TippiCanoe. (Obviously not MITers, NYU? The cult of Backus?)<BR/><BR/>I agree with so many of the arguments that you make. But one argument that I never see on this site is:<BR/><BR/>In a country that has a monetary unit that is tied to thin air, can the Fed outspend a worldwide financial disaster? Well, we all know the answer to that question. Damn the consequences. And that my friend has enormous impacts on the short term, and long. Place your trades accordingly.<BR/><BR/>Best of luck.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-50753890969757074692009-04-12T07:55:00.000-04:002009-04-12T07:55:00.000-04:00Great blog - learning a lot !! Here is another gra...Great blog - learning a lot !! Here is another graph you can use sometime; not really to do with anything in particular but kind of makes more sense now...<BR/><BR/>http://shirakeru.deviantart.com/art/Ascent-into-Darkness-87442159Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-50124669263099263022009-04-12T04:14:00.000-04:002009-04-12T04:14:00.000-04:00Can IYR and SRS have done what they have done with...Can IYR and SRS have done what they have done without major market manipulation?<BR/><BR/>FWIW, I follow NeoWave trading and learned it from Glenn Neely with his course as a floor trader 25years ago. <BR/><BR/>IYR looks like a textbook A-B-C where the C leg is pennies from being equal to the A leg in length. If we stop here, and at a channel line too, it screams correction. Print a 60 minute chart of IYR going back to December, put it on the wall and walk 10 feet away. It should look like this was a major correction in price and time due to the time and length spent going down, which should now continue. But with market manipulation and deals done in private with GS (who I accept as being the 4th branch of government) anything is possible. <BR/><BR/>I hope Milton Friedman was right when he said markets will go where they are going, and we can try to steer the ship in small ways, but it will end up at its destination regardless. <BR/><BR/>WalshAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-40958539400486049582009-04-12T03:55:00.000-04:002009-04-12T03:55:00.000-04:00Please permit me to contribute to these thought-pr...Please permit me to contribute to these thought-provoking comments:<BR/><BR/>1) The current global crisis is the end result of at least 20 years of economic and political rule-changing and greedy overreaching by the financial and government elite. Look at a multi-decade chart of the S&P: it went ballistic in the late 1980's when financial laws were changed to benefit Wall Street.<BR/><BR/>2)A 20-year global asset bubble has burst, and it cannot be re-inflated in this short a time, by these pathetic methods.<BR/><BR/>3)This crisis is steadily revealing to more & more people what some (like Tyler & Jonny already knew): just how deceitful, criminal, and co-conspiring the financial industry & the government are.<BR/><BR/>4) The derivative mortgage-backed securities "time-bombs" are more extensive, widespread, and dangerous than most people know or are willing to admit. All the banks, the FED, the Treasury, the White House, Congress, & mainstream media are covering up the banks' insolvency.<BR/><BR/>5) Financially dependent on Wall Street, and fearing a global financial crash, depression, and social violence, the government is trying desperately to "prop up" the banks, the stock market, and the economy, via Japan-style methods instead of by the smarter-but-harder Sweden style methods.<BR/><BR/>6) These efforts will cause bear-market rallies temporarily, but these rallies will all fail, and the bear market will resume until the deleveraging and deflationary problems work themselves out fully, over years not months.<BR/><BR/>7) The corporate-state elite are betraying the common people for generations to come. By protecting the likes of AIG and Citigroup from receivership and dismantling, our national debt will grow by tens of trillions of dollars by the time this crisis is over. How long will $20-40 trillion take to pay off?<BR/><BR/>8) As Anonymous said above, taxes will rise and the dollar will fall. As a result, the standard of living of average Americans will suffer and stay depressed for decades. We will have less after-taxes dollars & those dollars will buy far less.<BR/><BR/>9) Eventually, China, Japan, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, etc. will buy less of our debt, and even start selling our Treasuries. Facing default, a credit downgrade (and national disgrace), the government will be forced to pay down its astronomical debt & deficits by severely cutting Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, other safety nets, and military spending.<BR/><BR/>10) Economic suffering and social tensions will cause crime, violence, and civil unrest to increase. There will be political upheavals. Our democratic processes and our constitutional rights will be severely tested.<BR/><BR/>How the balance of power and the sharing of wealth between the elites and the common people in America turn out will depend upon how active the people become in demanding the kind of life & future we desire & deserve.<BR/><BR/>It usually takes a Great Depression or a war before average people organize to demand justice & greater equality with the rich & powerful. <BR/><BR/>This is clearly a historic crisis: not just financial or economic, but political, social, ethical, and very personal.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-72933234126541146052009-04-12T03:15:00.000-04:002009-04-12T03:15:00.000-04:00http://arxiv.org/pdf/0904.1426http://arxiv.org/pdf/0904.1426Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-35718433067875985702009-04-12T02:17:00.000-04:002009-04-12T02:17:00.000-04:00"What happens after I have no idea."Okay. Allow m..."What happens after I have no idea."<BR/><BR/>Okay. Allow me.<BR/><BR/>1.) MUCH higher taxes. The socializing of costs and privatizing of profits at this scale means that "we" have to pay for all of this. And do not, for even a minute, believe that it will only be our grandchildren who have to pay. Our bill is already in the mail.<BR/><BR/>2.) MUCH lower dollar. The recent strength in the dollar is temporary. Eventually, (my guess is that it happens before 1/1/10) investors around the globe will decide that they can no longer accept what is being done to the dollar. A number of American experts and officials have pooh-poohed this as unlikely or impossible. The funny thing is, you could almost take their quotes verbatim and paste them into the interviews with American auto executives in the 60s and 70s when asked about the threat of Japanese autos. BTW, the people who think that this is a clever way to boost our competitiveness in export markets need to read #3.<BR/><BR/>3.) (Global) Demand implosion. Aggregate demand is already down in the US, China, Britain, and Italy, and is outright negative in all of those but China (of course, who knows about THEIR numbers?!). With the world's two largest economies having -6% and -12% GDP growth already, imagine what these numbers will look like when everyone wipes the fairy dust from their eyes and sees the hard truth of the numbers you've presented. Classic debt-deflationary cycle, which, although cleansing in the long-run, tends to be absolutely brutal to actually go through.<BR/><BR/>Result for investors; a plunge to even lower lows than November 08 or March 09, with no snap-back rally in sight. If you were planning to buy a home or automobile or even stocks this year, seriously, wait until next year. You'll be glad you did.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-33947428744174844072009-04-12T02:14:00.000-04:002009-04-12T02:14:00.000-04:00Endgame is ebb tide for financialization.Make mone...Endgame is ebb tide for financialization.<BR/><BR/>Make money while you can if that's your game; hopefully you'll be able to buy something.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com