tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post6458396036757134509..comments2024-02-27T22:18:53.706-05:00Comments on Zero Hedge: Macro Observations In The Context Of Newton's Third LawTyler Durdenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00165439451205639523noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-56912219091448446012010-02-03T01:58:52.184-05:002010-02-03T01:58:52.184-05:00[url=http://tinyurl.com/y9qxher][img]http://i069.r...[url=http://tinyurl.com/y9qxher][img]http://i069.radikal.ru/1001/35/75e72b218708.jpg[/img][/url]<br /><br /><br /><br />Related keywords:<br />Tramadol and nausea <br />cash delivery shipped Tramadol <br />pain medication Tramadol <br />best price for Tramadol generic Tramadol <br />Tramadol drug <br />Tramadol online pharmacy <br />buy drug Tramadol <br />next day air ups Tramadol Tramadol <br />[url=http://www.zazzle.com/AlexanderBlack]Tramadol online no prior next day [/url] <br />[url=http://seobraincenter.ru]http://seobraincenter.ru[/url]<br />online Tramadol <br />buying Tramadol online <br />Tramadol no prescription overnight delivery <br />saturday delivery overnight Tramadol <br />buy Tramadol cheap overnight <br />Tramadol hcl tabs <br />aan agcode TramadolAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-40525994127740874342009-03-24T14:09:00.000-04:002009-03-24T14:09:00.000-04:00anon @ 1242...all i know is, I'm not the only oneanon @ 1242...all i know is, <A HREF="http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/03/has_the_econobl.html" REL="nofollow">I'm not the only one</A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-77043687922503428592009-03-24T12:42:00.000-04:002009-03-24T12:42:00.000-04:00@ anonymous @ march 24 - 10:26.Do you have any act...@ anonymous @ march 24 - 10:26.<BR/><BR/>Do you have any actual facts to back up your asserations?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-59409957338733305672009-03-24T10:26:00.000-04:002009-03-24T10:26:00.000-04:00negativity blogs are the next bubble to pop. they...negativity blogs are the next bubble to pop. they're all over the place. none of them called this on the way down and there is more than a good chance none of them will call the turnaround. Seller beware.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-3532114655676219892009-03-24T09:51:00.000-04:002009-03-24T09:51:00.000-04:00"printing of dollars. So much so that the M1-3 vel..."printing of dollars. So much so that the M1-3 velocity will soon become unstoppable."<BR/><BR/>Printing money increases the <EM>supply</EM> not the <EM>velocity</EM>. If you are going to use economic terminology, you should use them correctly.Advant Guardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13724697741711826082noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-75366124909524169342009-03-24T09:29:00.000-04:002009-03-24T09:29:00.000-04:00Wait till the rest of the hedgies figure out how t...Wait till the rest of the hedgies figure out how to restructure the toxic tranches as we have.<BR/><BR/>Making some of them 100% toxic and therefore destined to be backstopped and others 77%-92% profitable. This is the greatest possible outcome.<BR/><BR/>Long live the TALF! Geithner next stop will be the Chairman of the Fed, and rightfully so!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-57929664075487727502009-03-24T09:06:00.000-04:002009-03-24T09:06:00.000-04:00Tyler,Many thanks for the analysis, particularly o...Tyler,<BR/><BR/>Many thanks for the analysis, particularly on the variety of headwinds into which our intrepid leaders sail our economy.<BR/><BR/>Question: Is there a good comparison available of the aggregate headwinds/tailwinds to be faced if the administration played genuine hardball and quickly seized the banks, separated bad from good, and spun them out asap?<BR/><BR/>I for one am willing to presume, for the time being, that the new administration is 'holding its nose' and trying its best to maximize aggregate economic outcomes. What I don't understand is why they evidently believe that keeping the old financial plumbing in place is so necessary to fix up the whole house? It seems to me they are confusing the urgent matter of 'availability and prudent use of credit' with the maintenance of the old, broken, and too-often despicable plumbing that ruined the house by spilling excess credit through floors and ceilings.<BR/><BR/>So it occurs to ask whether you could whip up an alternative to the trenchant high-level analysis in your post, to reveal the aggregate headwinds/tailwinds that would accompany a manly and rapid wind-down of the old plumbing and old plumbers? Maybe that would relieve some of the 'cognitive capture' problem and help put a little real spine into these guys. <BR/><BR/>Anyway, thanks much. I loved listening in on the Treasury call yesterday, too.Gentlemutthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14195075849681957505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-29851291214442594282009-03-24T01:00:00.000-04:002009-03-24T01:00:00.000-04:00I should mention that I smell Plunge Protection Te...I should mention that I smell Plunge Protection Team behind today's move. They're still out there. Was there a big pop in the futures around 8am EST? Tyler is probably much more familiar with their MO, but I've read they hit the futures market when they show up to work in the morning.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-69624143208093004402009-03-24T00:52:00.000-04:002009-03-24T00:52:00.000-04:00@Anonymous 12:20.I'm glad you have buyers for thos...@Anonymous 12:20.<BR/><BR/>I'm glad you have buyers for those loans. Apparently Fannie and Freddie haven't learned their lesson yet. I doubt the true risk premium alone would cover the 3.5% rate for a 600 FICO score. But hey, it's someone else's problem now. <BR/><BR/>Trivia: Minneapolis home prices are down 18.4% YOY according to Case-Schiller. The non-foreclosures may need a year to season, and the foreclosures may need two, but even if the rate slows by half it wipes out 20% equity in two years. And people don't even need close to that? Nifty!<BR/><BR/>A while back I read in the NYT that lenders would pretty much have to throw FICO models out once the unemployment rate hits 8.5%. About 80-20 odds that happens around 8:30am EST on April 3rd.<BR/><BR/>I also read the PR piece on home sales about how 1/2 of buyers are first time buyers. I suppose if they were priced out of the market during the bubble, bought a foreclosure getting dumped at 10-15% below market, and haven't taken a six-figure hit to their net worth, they can step into the slaughterhouse along with the rest of us. <BR/><BR/>I also suspect that a lot of husbands with a foreclosure on their credit score are having their wife buy the house, and vice versa. We're probably importing a number of new buyers too. None of this makes me feel any more hopeful for the future. But hey, the Feds can look at all those tax credits they're giving out and sleep better for now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-49290310185240330232009-03-24T00:32:00.000-04:002009-03-24T00:32:00.000-04:00It maddens me to watch trillions of dollars of deb...It maddens me to watch trillions of dollars of debt be accumulated in a matter 90 days in an probably fruitless effort to "goose" the economy.<BR/><BR/>It's apparent that Bernarke/Obama absolutely refuse to allow a shakeout of the dead weight on their watch and they want to re-inflate the bubble at ALL costs.<BR/><BR/>Politics at it's worst. Free market forces be damned.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-21038667507705091482009-03-24T00:24:00.000-04:002009-03-24T00:24:00.000-04:00Great. all we need is people up to their asses in...Great. all we need is people up to their asses in mortgage debt.<BR/><BR/>The market went up because BAC and C the two POS banks that the morons at the fed and treaury cobbled together were getting wobbly therefore another late ad hoc attempt and proping them was made.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12183085827525696523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-50950744837141721412009-03-24T00:20:00.000-04:002009-03-24T00:20:00.000-04:00I'm compelled to mention this because there's a mi...I'm compelled to mention this because there's a mis-conception about that is repeated in the excellent comment above. We (loan originators) still are able to get 600 fico-score borrowers mortgages with just 3.5% down (FHA). Large downpayments may be coming but they're not here yet.<BR/><BR/>And FHA can now do some pretty large loans ($365,000 in MN where the median is only about $190K). I don't have any problems getting people purchase loans, its the refinancing that has disappeared due to the equity losses.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-39370870575301661912009-03-24T00:12:00.000-04:002009-03-24T00:12:00.000-04:00As a response to commenter #1, there's actually a ...As a response to commenter #1, there's actually a lot one can do. <BR/><BR/>Americans should have an emergency fund to tide them over during difficult times. Normally people should do this during the good times, but every little helps. <BR/><BR/>Paying off debts is good too. A $1 extra in a mortgage payment is equivalent on your balance sheet to $1 in a tax-free 5-6% bond for the next 30 years. There just aren't many investments that are going to perform better in the short term, and auto, credit card and student loan debts are even better.<BR/><BR/>Finally, the stock market is historically very cheap. I don't think we've hit bottom yet (the long term stock market cycles last 16-20 years, so that would mean a 1982-style bottom around 2016-2020). However, an investor that dollar cost averages in and thinks ahead the next 20-25 years should be buying with both hands. Even people near retirement can lower their average cost and wait for the next bull market to take them out in 2-4 years around 11K or so.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-72114653558885978402009-03-24T00:09:00.000-04:002009-03-24T00:09:00.000-04:00Don't forget the pension plans. I believe I read ...Don't forget the pension plans. I believe I read that many pension funds use Mar 31 as their year end date. This little Geithner/Bernanke rally is very timely from that perspective. The 20% rally over the last few days will save some companies, municipalities, and states, the grief of having to plunk new billions into their underfunded pension programs. Quite a well timed play.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-75656844671163871242009-03-24T00:02:00.000-04:002009-03-24T00:02:00.000-04:00I have to disagree with you on this one. Geithner...I have to disagree with you on this one. Geithner (and Bernanke) haven't the slightest idea what "money" is, and so have no idea how to produce enough of it to cause inflation. <BR/><BR/>All you describe in this post is deflationary, from the declining flow of income (and therefore price) from ABS as defaults take over to the wholesale destruction of household (and business) wealth. An entire generation is looking at poverty in their elderly years as they have retired on their home equity and 401k to take care of them and now have just Social Security.<BR/><BR/>Certainly the Fed has nearly (at least now - perception is reality) infinite power to create reserves and the Treasury has nearly (at least for now - perception is reality here too) to create debt instruments to satisfy demand (which, not coincidentally, is increasingly coming from the Fed now, our foreign partners having smaller trade surpluses to recycle).<BR/><BR/>However, I don't see an outlet for these funds. Certainly not in housing. Prices are falling at a 20% annual rate. Home equity for purchasing has evaporated. People never saved in the first place so they don't have the cash. Lenders require 20% down now, or at least significant skin in the game. There's 13 months of inventory on the market, and that's with over half being foreclosure sales, which are dumped on the market and cause prices to fall further. Unemployment is 8.1% and rising. In California unemployment is 10.5% and rising. <BR/><BR/>This is not an environment conducive to inflation. Even if we had complete transparency so we could make all the banks, broker/dealers, insurance companies, hedge funds, and everyone else whole, who would borrow? Who CAN borrow in enough amounts to clear the market, particularly with rates artificially set 400-500 basis points lower than what would exist without intervention. We might create a giant monetary circle jerk, but we won't create inflation.<BR/><BR/>What outlet is there for these funds that results in the spending on consumer goods (particularly our overly-narrow definition of consumer goods called CPI) that would drive prices up? It doesn't happen in an economy where household debt alone is 150% of GDP and almost half of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.<BR/><BR/>Certainly it can fuel a one day rally (or a month. Remember we've seen a lot of these since 2000). It can also fuel a hell of a lot of volatility, because what isn't getting taken out of circulation is going right into speculative activity, which seems to only end up feeding the same small group of people.<BR/><BR/>However, most of this money is either destroyed or neutralized as soon as it is created. It either covers the gaping craters in the required capital of financial companies, or goes to pay down household debts contracted ages ago.<BR/><BR/>Industrial capacity is at levels not seen since 1982. The Chinese have 20-40 million newly unemployed factory workers and would probably be ecstatic to dump cheap crap on the market for the next decade. Trade is becoming increasingly contentious, and with the drying up of trade comes the loss of the gains from trade.<BR/><BR/>We are creating a lot of "M", but it won't get "V'd". Bernanke is unwilling to let "P" adjust, so Q is adjusting accordingly.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-6997917815178469392009-03-23T23:23:00.000-04:002009-03-23T23:23:00.000-04:00Seems like your dire predictions for long term are...Seems like your dire predictions for long term are based on increased "thriftyness of the US consumer". I am at a loss how without the administration initiatives the consumer would be spending MORE. What am I missing?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-87811178130779330212009-03-23T23:16:00.000-04:002009-03-23T23:16:00.000-04:00FWIW, I recommend complaining about this latest Tr...FWIW, I recommend complaining about this latest Treasury give-away to Congress. Something like:<BR/>* * * * * <BR/>Hello: <BR/><BR/>We are outraged at the latest Treasury Department plan. It effectively sets up hedge funds and other speculators to make bets on mortgage-backed bonds and gives them government guarantees. They keep the gains but any losses will fobbed off on the taxpayer! <BR/><BR/>This is a ridiculous risk of taxpayer funds to further enrich speculators, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and AIG. <BR/><BR/>In the end, it will have no effect on the root problem of over-priced and over-indebted houses. Only the free market will “fix” this problem. <BR/><BR/>If you worried about the anger over $165M in AIG bonuses, wait until the public figures out the hundreds of billions in giveaways that will emanate from this latest plan. <BR/><BR/>Please stop this plan!!! <BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>Concerned Citizen<BR/>* * * * * * <BR/>Please write today. Like the political "machine" in old Chicago, we recommend you write early and often:<BR/> <BR/>Senators:<BR/>http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm <BR/> <BR/>Congressman:<BR/>https://forms.house.gov/wyr/welcome.shtml<BR/><BR/>Nancy Pelosi:<BR/>americanvoices@mail.house.govcoolcaticehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16920848089158861409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-78542664746612269492009-03-23T22:49:00.000-04:002009-03-23T22:49:00.000-04:00I have been reading your blog for a little while a...I have been reading your blog for a little while and appreciate the cogent analysis. I know that you have been reluctant to give specific advice (don't short Citibank being the exception), but after such a gloomy forecast, could you please give some thoughts on what the average investor/ saver can do to protect themselves? (I know gold is the popular hedge fund trade, but I have never been intellectually comfortable with the arguments made by the gold bugs).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com