tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post3971295580047276395..comments2024-02-27T22:18:53.706-05:00Comments on Zero Hedge: Risk-Free Profit Idea of the DayTyler Durdenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00165439451205639523noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-37923886260063210832009-03-10T17:47:00.000-04:002009-03-10T17:47:00.000-04:00is there an update on this trade please? i am look...is there an update on this trade please? i am looking for warehouse space in oklahomajmkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08026380591216200871noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-45769677775558294372009-03-06T17:08:00.000-05:002009-03-06T17:08:00.000-05:00It's an interesting situation. But seriously, the...It's an interesting situation. But seriously, the logistics of pulling this off are remarkably difficult. Which is precisely why the market differentiation exists. The holding costs are very low, but it has to be done on a grand scale to be worthwhile. For $40,000...it's not realistic for me, and $40,000 is alot of money.<BR/><BR/>For somebody who makes twice what I make, but happens to be in a field (say storage units) that can keep their costs lower, then you're talking a possibility.<BR/><BR/>For someone who makes 1/2 what I do and $40k is a fortune...they have no way to actually pull it off.<BR/><BR/>For someone who makes 3 times what I make - why bother for $40k?<BR/><BR/><BR/>Point is - the price differentiation is large, but there is no reasonable logistical framework to make it work for the average person. So it's a not a terrible dislocation.<BR/><BR/><BR/>On the other hand, one thing that it does point to is misread markets. If I'm in the oil business, and I'm still expecting $65 oil in 11 months, then I'm misleading my company. Oil is a volatile commodity, true....but oil inventories are ridiculous.<BR/><BR/>One reason I knew oil/gas prices were coming down? A friend of mine in the shipping business told me of tankers sitting off the coast with no place to offload in June. At the prices per barrel that were being paid, inventories were piling up but not showing on the books because they couldn't be offloaded. This problem is still in existence, since now its a production issue - oil nations have to produce more to make the same revenues.<BR/><BR/>I don't see high ($100+) oil prices again until the government "stimulus" hyperinflation kicks in. Which won't be for about 12 months.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08847291730138464794noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-25446532484694771612009-01-19T10:53:00.000-05:002009-01-19T10:53:00.000-05:00we love all our fans. we hope you international re...we love all our fans. we hope you international readers spread the word about zero hedge... but remember, the 1st rule of zero hedge is you do not talk about zero hedge... bit of a paradox thereTyler Durdenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00165439451205639523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-60469120353007427112009-01-19T10:49:00.000-05:002009-01-19T10:49:00.000-05:00What about Canadian readers? There's a least one ...What about Canadian readers? There's a least one (me).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-85996505657472501272009-01-19T10:37:00.000-05:002009-01-19T10:37:00.000-05:00you sell the jan 2010 contract today. u promise ph...you sell the jan 2010 contract today. u promise physical delivery at that date. that is whole pointTyler Durdenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00165439451205639523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-53297506396914664202009-01-19T10:30:00.000-05:002009-01-19T10:30:00.000-05:00what if oil trades below $35 after 11 months...what if oil trades below $35 after 11 months...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-61763496550632225222009-01-19T03:33:00.000-05:002009-01-19T03:33:00.000-05:00Sounds eligible for TARP funds. Oil storage bailou...Sounds eligible for TARP funds. Oil storage bailout.BrianSJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03613916574661223679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-60110817654988792212009-01-18T13:11:00.000-05:002009-01-18T13:11:00.000-05:00Hell, Bridgeport would probably pay you to store o...Hell, Bridgeport would probably pay you to store oil in its old poisoned factories, or at least look well the other way provided you generate a couple no-show security jobs for friends of the Mayor. They would help you too, if you can't unload the stuff - oil spills might trigger an EPA emergency cleanup which is the only way anyone spends a nickel upgrading the place.<BR/><BR/>Be nimble in the new economy, peopleAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-14445986198258956602009-01-18T10:33:00.000-05:002009-01-18T10:33:00.000-05:00am all about europe. should explain the occasional...am all about europe. should explain the occasional totally random soccer posts... way to go berbatov - man u all the wayTyler Durdenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00165439451205639523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-33684710181398572822009-01-18T10:28:00.000-05:002009-01-18T10:28:00.000-05:00thank you for hollering at one of your two europea...thank you for hollering at one of your two european readers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-43631937326262194142009-01-17T21:24:00.000-05:002009-01-17T21:24:00.000-05:00"Are we missing something, or is the market so dis..."Are we missing something, or is the market so dislocated there are just insane pockets of value..."<BR/><BR/>You are missing the various state laws and EPA regulations that would probably put you in the red. There is a reason the tankers being used to store oil are all parked on the other side of the world.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-68151778532533580682009-01-17T13:38:00.000-05:002009-01-17T13:38:00.000-05:00You forgot to mention several things1. The cost of...You forgot to mention several things<BR/><BR/>1. The cost of the holding the hedge<BR/>2. Delivering to and fro the delivery point in Oklahoma/brining the oil to stamford<BR/>3. You have to be able to swap that oil with some end user. There is no guarantee that you could just find someone to buy it from you spot in the month of contract expiry<BR/>4. Many people who actually trade oil have already factored this idea in and are currently storing oil anywhere they can to take advantage of this profit. In due time the market (theoretically from arbitrage) should come in lines with this contango, considering that it is, in fact a contango (storage costs, hedge costs, interest expectations, end user demand, supply, transportation costs are all worth considering when you factor this idea in)<BR/><BR/>At the end of the day the most difficult part will be finding someone to buy the oil.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-11820596699308442292009-01-17T00:53:00.000-05:002009-01-17T00:53:00.000-05:00your profits are likely to be even higher. The bar...your profits are likely to be even higher. The barrels can be resold once you are done with them.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-88063488869886594342009-01-16T19:38:00.000-05:002009-01-16T19:38:00.000-05:00I hear that the Fairfield Greenwich Office is vaca...I hear that the Fairfield Greenwich Office is vacant property.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-57406111211597801172009-01-16T19:09:00.000-05:002009-01-16T19:09:00.000-05:00Store your inventory in a warehouse in OK, that wi...Store your inventory in a warehouse in OK, that will dramatically increase your margins. Also, lever up 25x (to LMV) at L+7, that makes things a little more interesting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-1483006055062190252009-01-16T18:10:00.000-05:002009-01-16T18:10:00.000-05:00Why not store it in a tank? Or buy some foreclosed...Why not store it in a tank? Or buy some foreclosed gas stations in Michigan and store it in the ground?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-9391092217207080312009-01-16T17:53:00.001-05:002009-01-16T17:53:00.001-05:00Were you watching Its Always Sunny before you came...Were you watching Its Always Sunny before you came up with this idea?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-1998168943380056352009-01-16T17:53:00.000-05:002009-01-16T17:53:00.000-05:00http://www.sglp.com/last time that I checked, they...http://www.sglp.com/<BR/><BR/>last time that I checked, they still have capacityAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-30931531809983758822009-01-16T17:40:00.000-05:002009-01-16T17:40:00.000-05:00Um, labor costs?Um, labor costs?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-69894154473517616322009-01-16T17:39:00.000-05:002009-01-16T17:39:00.000-05:00This one has been going around for a little bit......This one has been going around for a little bit...the best option we've got going is renting a bunch of cargo vans and parking them in an OK wal-mart parking lot for a month. Feb/Mar spread is $8 and quite doable...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-65563059281642206402009-01-16T17:22:00.000-05:002009-01-16T17:22:00.000-05:00U Haul. No seriously, logistics were based on a 2 ...U Haul. <BR/><BR/>No seriously, logistics were based on a 2 minutes search on craigslist. you can probably buy a cheap barn on OK, purchase local barrels and wait for the checkTyler Durdenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00165439451205639523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-84825224321164079302009-01-16T17:14:00.000-05:002009-01-16T17:14:00.000-05:00how do you propose getting this oil from cushing o...how do you propose getting this oil from cushing oklahoma .. into the plastic(?) barrels(from houston)... and then to stamford ct?<BR/><BR/>thats probably not free...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-87206845638080189832009-01-16T17:10:00.000-05:002009-01-16T17:10:00.000-05:00Crude isn't very flammable.Crude isn't very flammable.Jeff Steinporthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14431809876940311853noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-12983292877676104572009-01-16T17:06:00.000-05:002009-01-16T17:06:00.000-05:00Good luck finding a warehouse that will allow you ...Good luck finding a warehouse that will allow you to store hundreds of gallons of highly flammable, environmentally hazardous crude oil.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-82108880738219304152009-01-16T17:01:00.000-05:002009-01-16T17:01:00.000-05:00You also need insurance and need to factor in deli...You also need insurance and need to factor in delivery costs to/fro.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com