tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post3077936576011594627..comments2024-02-27T22:18:53.706-05:00Comments on Zero Hedge: Tracking The G7 Sovereign RiskTyler Durdenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00165439451205639523noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-40384498071185059552009-04-01T08:06:00.000-04:002009-04-01T08:06:00.000-04:00Unless the Federal Reserve refuses to do an open m...Unless the Federal Reserve refuses to do an open market operation to put more money in the treasury, how is there possibly a US default risk? It's an inflation risk.<BR/><BR/>Countries without direct control of their currencies (like in the EU) are obviously different. I could theoretically see a credit event there, but not in the USA.Matt Busiginhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03262179214077430841noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-28197342989740034562009-04-01T04:08:00.000-04:002009-04-01T04:08:00.000-04:00I don't think you can necessarily translate CDS in...I don't think you can necessarily translate CDS into perceived default risk. There are many technical factors driving CDS pricing, including the difficulty in hedging and arbitrage. The bottom line is that the risks are just too correlated for there to be enough capital to insure what's out there.<BR/><BR/>Comparing today's relative CDS rates are useful (Spain vs Greece), but comparisons to good old days doesn't mean a whole lot.krnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-44288448653164660982009-03-31T21:45:00.000-04:002009-03-31T21:45:00.000-04:00Imagine the implications of this on Basel I/II ......Imagine the implications of this on Basel I/II ...does this mean that the risk weighting is going up for gov/agency/preff. What's a little more capital when you've gone begging anywaySnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-10670280721319723452009-03-31T18:38:00.000-04:002009-03-31T18:38:00.000-04:00sorry, not in my jurisdiction. maybe contact them ...sorry, not in my jurisdiction. maybe contact them directly and see if you can arrange a discount/trial?Tyler Durdenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00165439451205639523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-8251842976734963312009-03-31T18:29:00.000-04:002009-03-31T18:29:00.000-04:00can I get a username/password for this site? My ma...can I get a username/password for this site? My manager said 'NO' on the subscription for this. Please.<BR/><BR/>Thanks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-8009258580534112332009-03-31T17:43:00.000-04:002009-03-31T17:43:00.000-04:00I wonder if China is buying Treasury CDS protectio...I wonder if China is buying Treasury CDS protection.In Debt We Trusthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05283475872936333396noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-48553491094269017152009-03-31T16:31:00.000-04:002009-03-31T16:31:00.000-04:00vol would be reduced as more corporate risk is off...vol would be reduced as more corporate risk is offloaded to the US (again based on the trivial assumption that US will not fail). we might reach a point (in a thought experiment) where all the risk/vol would be contingent on the US.Tyler Durdenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00165439451205639523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-11989113432748639192009-03-31T16:27:00.000-04:002009-03-31T16:27:00.000-04:00Tyler says "Among the prevailing market theories i...Tyler says "Among the prevailing market theories is that the rise in G7 CDS levels is among the main causes for the subdued levels of the VIX..." <BR/><BR/>I don't understand why a rise in G7 CDS levels would keep the VIX lower. As these spreads widen, wouldn't fear/volatility increase not decrease?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-30076140991524675302009-03-31T16:15:00.000-04:002009-03-31T16:15:00.000-04:00traditionally eurostraditionally eurosTyler Durdenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00165439451205639523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4863014635257598503.post-49083571734777308782009-03-31T16:14:00.000-04:002009-03-31T16:14:00.000-04:00do USD treasury CDSs trade in USD? if not -- you ...do USD treasury CDSs trade in USD? if not -- you have to take currency risk contingent on default into account.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com