Just to drive in the point of what is really happening on the green shoots front, I present a housing starts and housing permits chart. Yes, those second derivative inflection points - they turned out to be smoke and mirrors. Just as will all other second derivatives, as the economy continues collapsing, albeit a little slower.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPZJ4ioKN9iraSit4tOpYD2Jkss0qv3ECBZ_r4BUUW4cC_HS24LSuMn9Ub6C2mr1eRgzD1PjKYc_UPiu3kvJPxSNkuwIQVY7mC7cA7zhzKiX99GQUbUInhWZ4Cuf8-Ns3HyZ9v2pBV-EI/s400/housing+starts.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIa1T602JWv3RCPgsv963RFmMgLBshEGIDxoPQuKAJ51xCMJnyyRmz8IWqnbKPJqtY8kuYHPVnAnFcq6jlcPATxC21n-wP4XvG2TSoxor0mXDBfhZMn2Q2l4bcNDk1Cb_A6sD5cXj4E8I/s400/housing+permits.jpg)
What is interesting is that the CBOE put/call has become a mirror image of economic reality, and the option optimism has merely increased in more or less a straight line not just since March, but from a low early in 2009, and is now at asymptotic levels again. Oddly, the futures were the best predictor of the shadow buying the S&P futures.
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